Daniel Eran Dilger in San Francisco
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Radio: Apple TV, Surface RT, Android

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Gene Steinberg of the Tech Night Owl invited me to talk about Apple TV, Microsoft’s Surface RT fiasco and of course Google’s Android.

You can tune into the live broadcast stream Saturday night from 7:00 to 10:00 PM Pacific, 10:00 PM to 1:00 AM Eastern, at http://www.technightowl.com/radio/. An archive of the show is available for downloading and listening at your convenience within four hours after the original broadcast.

The Tech Night Owl LIVE is also broadcast on many local radio stations via the GCN network. There’a also now a mobile app for GCN radio.

You can also access the show’s Podcast feed at: http://www.technightowl.com/nightowl.xml.

2 comments

1 Damfino { 07.28.13 at 1:55 pm }

The headline implies that DED will talk about the Surface RT failure but it turned out that someone else did! I think there’s still lots to be discussed in addition to Daniel’s “editorial” over there at ApppleInsider.

The AppleInsider piece was sort of a response a Mary Jo Foley column. There is a more direct answer: The problem wasn’t just poor sales projections, it was desperation. I think they knew internally that they critically needed to sell all the ARM tablets that they could build or else they would be dead in the water.

They’re dead in the water.

A better starting point is one of Horace’s analyses from last year, “The building and dismantling of the Windows advantage.” (http://www.asymco.com/2012/07/04/the-building-and-dismantling-of-the-windows-advantage/)He computed a fascinating statistic: The ratio of Windows PCs vs Macs. He graphed it from 1984 to 2010. The second graph, “Multiple of PCs sold vs. Macs” shows the decline from a high of >50X down to about 20x in 2010.

It’s the third graph, “Windows units sold as a multiple of all Apple devices,” (MacOS X + iOS) explains why they must have felt that they needed to build so many ARM tablets. Of course it shows a far steeper slope — a slippery slope if there ever was one. Someone within MS must have realized that they desperately needed to slow down their slide into the valley of obscurity.

That’s why. It was a desperate gamble rather than a poor projection.

Last year, Horace’s comment on that third graph was this:

“The consequences are dire for Microsoft. The wiping out of any platform advantage around Windows will render it vulnerable to direct competition. This is not something it had to worry about before. Windows will have to compete not only for users, but for developer talent, investment by enterprises and the implicit goodwill it has had for more than a decade. It will, most importantly, have a psychological effect. Realizing that Windows is not a hegemony will unleash market forces that nobody can predict.”

Now that their initial attempt at entering the ARM tablet market has failed, this is exactly where they are. They had to try.

2 bft { 07.31.13 at 9:56 am }

Just wanted to let you know that I’ve adopted the practice of reading your AI articles in the voice of the Breaking Bad character Saul Goodman, played by Bob Odenkirk.

Previous to adopting this practice, the articles were good, but now they are really funny.

(Just in case they make an audiobook from a compilation…)

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