Daniel Eran Dilger in San Francisco
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Apple blows away CES to start 2011 on a rampage

Daniel Eran Dilger

CES was supposed to break loose that avalanche of Android tablets that would bury Apple. Instead, it was merely what it always is: a bunch of low impact PR fluff that Apple blows away with one or two new announcements.
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Mac App Store

This year, it was the Mac App Store. One would think that opening a storefront for desktop PC apps wouldn’t be that newsworthy. It seems Microsoft did this for Windows at one point, but apparently nobody even noticed.

Apple rather expertly snuck its App Store shovel under the snow as it fell, pre-announcing its launch date underneath CES so that everyone could prepare their measured reactions and interview developers in attempts to find disgruntlement to report. But of course in the marketing world any attention is still attention.

The overall experience of the Mac App Store was very positive, because it’s something that offers a lot of value to the Mac platform, its developers, and its users. All Apple had to do to make its initial mark on 2011 was flip up the handle on its shiny new App Store shovel, launching the flurry of CES announcements into the air and to the curb, cleaning a neat path to its front door.

Even I was surprised by how much good content there was from day one; it’s important that Apple didn’t let the store fill up with wallpapers and music clips just to be able to report impressive “app numbers.” Take note, Google and Microsoft: less is more in the new app store.

Verizon on the horizon

Apple’s second announcement didn’t even need to be made. Everyone knows the iPhone is coming to the other big US carrier at this point. My critics like to complain that was wrong when I said that the iPhone wouldn’t come to Verizon in 2008 and 2009 and 2010, but it seems to have turned out that I was correct after all.

Apple of course wont be announcing the “new” iPhone on Verizon, because it’s not really new. As has been pointed out by a variety of Mac luminaries, including John Gruber and Jim Dalrymple, Apple’s letting Verizon do the announcements in New York because this is simply a matter of the iPhone gaining a new carrier. The underlying network transmitter isn’t interesting to the masses.

If Apple hosted the event on the Left Coast, it would appear to be abandoning its initial cozy partnership with AT&T, something it needs to maintain. It would also be difficult for Apple to let Verizon go wild in attacking AT&T’s network performance were Apple actually running the show. Since Verizon is doing it, Apple is pretty much hands off, all except for the disinvitation of Gizmodo.

However, it is interesting that the Wall Street Journal published such a confident confirmation of what we all knew right at the end of CES. It seems pretty likely that Apple arranged to drop that particular bomb at just the right time to flash melt the few flakes of CES PR that had escaped its shovel. Among those flakes were the official CES party thrown by Verizon, introducing its LTE rollout and the Android phones that will connect to its fast data network. Expensively.

So while Android will take over Verizon’s high end niche as early the adopter of 1.0 LTE technology, Apple will become the carrier’s flagship workhorse, capable of stealing away disgruntled AT&T users and entering the enterprise in a way that Android phones simply can’t, because they lack support for corporate proxy servers and full Exchange Server support. Seem the shoe is on the other foot.

And I’d also like to take credit for predicting, controversially, that 2010 would be the beginning of the end of Android hype. Verizon began betting against it late last fall before it began carrying the iPad, and is now moving to the iPhone to get the subscribers that Android can’t. Samsung is hedging its bets with Bada and Windows Phone 7. HP is going solo, as is RIM and Nokia, leaving just the “see what sticks” licensees left: HTC, Motorola, Sony Ericsson, LG, Samsung, and so on. The mass market producers of previous years’ Windows Mobile, JavaME and Symbian phones.

DED on CES

I’ve been documenting the fall of CES over the past decade; the notes for this year’s fizzled event is just a bookend for what has been a decade of failure. You might call it the curse of Microsoft, and it is so engrained into the DNA of PC makers that it has even managed to taint Google’s Android (“the Windows that’s worse than Windows”) and everyone else, even TV makers from LG to Samsung to Sony. Which collectively are doing to Smart TV what Palm did to smartphones in 2009: making promises they likely can’t deliver.

Here’s a recap of how CES has proven to be a graveyard of Microsoftic milestones:

2000 – Microsoft appeared to be stomping the remains of Apple and its Macintosh into the ground as it announced initiatives to expand Windows everywhere, first with WebTV and Microsoft TV, and then to smartphones with its new role for WinCE (still two years out) and tablets with Tablet PC. Apple announced the PowerMac G4 Cube, previewed Mac OS X’s new Aqua interface, and debuted iTools, the beginnings of its cloud services it has never been credited for (and which were later renamed .Mac and then MobileMe).

2001 – Microsoft launched the initial Xbox, relaunches Microsoft TV as Ultimate TV, and coins “Windows Powered,” an umbrella term for various WinCE devices. It’s starting to look desperate and ineffective. Apple released its new Titanium PowerBook, iTunes, iDVD, and shows off Mac OS X 10.0. Steve Jobs introduces the Digital Hub, with the Mac in the center, attached to digital devices like MP3 players, mobile phones, PDAs, and DVD players via Apple software and hardware integration.

2002 – Microsoft launched Mira Windows Powered Smart Displays and Freestyle (which would become the Window Media Center PC). Where’s the Microsoft TV thing? and Where is its answer to the iPod that Apple released the previous fall? No matter, Apple releases the flat panel iMac G4, the 14 inch iBook, and the new iPhoto, giving Macs something else graphically intensive to do so users would need a faster one.

2003 – More Media Center PC, more Tablet PC, SPOT watches (remember that?) and a video-capable answer to the iPod with Media2Go, albeit delayed until the middle of 2004. Still no worthy iPod competitor, as its Windows Media DRM is still MIA. Apple launched 12 an 17 inch PowerBooks, Final Cut Express, its new Safari browser, Keynote, and the new iLife suite.

2004 – Microsoft rolled out Media Center Edition 2004, enabling users to recognize that the product had been updated, along with showing the Portable Media Center players it had introduced earlier but wouldn’t have ready for several more months. Tying the desktop monopoly to new mobile devices didn’t work, leaving a gaping hole for Apple to continue selling iPods to Windows users and making iTunes the default music player for PC users. Apple focused on its new Xserve, iPod mini, Finals Cut Express 2, and the new GarageBand included in iLife 04.

2005 – Microsoft gave up on specific product introductions, talking only about a nebulous new Digital Entertainment Anywhere initiative laced with new brand names, including PlaysForSure and Windows Media Connect. Bill Gates’ keynote suffers significant technical problems, but nobody cares because nobody is even listening anymore. Apple debuts the Mac Mini, iPod Shuffle, Mac OS X 10.4 Tiger, Final Cut Express HD, Pages with Keynote 2 in iWork 05, and iMovie HD in iLife 05.

2006 – Microsoft unleashes Xbox 360, a money pit that would eventually break even after consuming around $8 billion of the company’s profits. It also relaunched Portable Media Center in an effort to take on the iPod, although it would subsequently abandon that ecosystem by the end of the year to go it alone with its new Zune device. Apple launches its Intel-based new MacBook Pro and iMac, Mac OS X 10.4 Tiger for Intel, iWork 06, and iWeb in iLife 06.

2007 – Microsoft launches Windows Vista and the Windows Home Server. Apple introduces Apple TV, AirPort Extreme with 802.11n, and of course, the iPhone, which sucks the oxygen from CES in an unprecedented way, leaving pundits and rival executives struggling for words.

2008 – Bill Gates announces his retirement from Microsoft. Apple launches Time Capsule, introduces new iOS updates, movie rentals in iTunes, Apple TV “take two” with HD rentals, and the ultra thin new MacBook Air, with an aluminum unibody construction that would trickle down into the rest of the MacBook line later that year.

2009 – Steve Ballmer took over Microsoft’s keynote, debuting Windows 7 with multitouch stuff that never materialized. Palm takes over the show with the new webOS Pre, which it says will trash the iPhone. On Apple’s side, Phil Schiller took over for Jobs, presenting new iLife’s new geotagging and face recognition in iPhoto and new Learn to Play lessons in GarageBand. An update to iWork was paired with new cloud collaboration features in iWork.com. Apple also launched the new unibody 17 inch MacBook Pro with an integrated battery design, completing the transformation of the MacBook line.

2010 – Microsoft rushes Slate PC to market in an attempt to head off the rumored Apple tablet. Shortly after CES, Google builds upon Verizon’s Droid inertia with the release of its Nexus One. Apple doesn’t participate in Macworld Expo, but does reveal the iPad, which shuts Slate PC out into the cold and delays competitors’ plans as they scramble to catch up in sophistication and in price.

2011 – Microsoft talks about the future of Windows PCs, tablets and smartphones, offering so little that Apple can hijack the entire event with nothing more than the announcement of the Mac App Store.

End of Wintel

Interestingly, this year Microsoft chatted up its eventual support for ARM chips two years hence. Its inability to run the NT/Vista/7 kernel on ARM mobile processors means that it can’t deliver powerful, mobile devices competitive with the iPhone, iPad, and Apple TV, all of which share the same kernel as Mac OS X.

Intel, meanwhile, being snubbed by Microsoft, turned things around by calling essentially calling Microsoft incompetent in delivering a worthy tablet OS, although it also said Google’s Android was having troubles as well.

In the 2010s, Wintel is gone, Android is replacing Windows among mobile devices as a weaker, more permissive monoculture, and Apple is set up to build a new ‘golden age of computing’ based upon simple, easy to use third party software apps with built in security limits, running like video game cartridges on its wide scope of Mac OS and iOS products, tightly integrated with its hardware designs. This should be interesting. Next up: my predictions for 2011. What are yours?

89 comments

1 Per { 01.08.11 at 4:18 pm }

Am I getting this right that you weren’t wrong about iPhone on Verizon because Apple isn’t doing the event themselves?

2 lmasanti { 01.08.11 at 4:19 pm }

Dan, you forgot to mention the Microsoft’s Surface!

3 helmut { 01.08.11 at 5:17 pm }

@Per .. i think Dan meant his prediction was that it wouldn’t happen during these years (up until the end of 2010) … iphone exclusivity for at&t was limited (in theory) from the beginning as far as i understand. like a 3 year deal or something.

4 addicted44 { 01.08.11 at 5:26 pm }

@Per – It seems Daniel’s argument is he said it wouldn’t arrive in 2010.
I don’t think he ever said that specifically, but his last “Verizon on iPhone” debunking was in early 2010, and most of the specific rumors he was responding to were about it happening in 2010 itself.

Looking at the archives, it seems he already called this in October:

http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2010/10/12/android-threats-from-verizon-iphone-windows-phone-7/

I don’t think he anticipated how much of a threat Android, with Verizon’s backing, could become to Apple, and as that became apparent, changed his evaluation of iPhone on Verizon concerns.

5 themacpundit { 01.08.11 at 5:29 pm }

Good stuff as usual Daniel.

I’ve blogged my 2011 year predictions over at http://themacpundit.wordpress.com/2011/01/02/tech-predictions-2011/

6 sprockkets { 01.08.11 at 6:22 pm }

“My critics like to complain that was wrong when I said that the iPhone wouldn’t come to Verizon in 2008 and 2009 and 2010, but it seems to have turned out that I was correct after all.”

What the hell you are talking about? You said a CDMA phone would never come to Verizon, PERIOD. Maybe, JUST MAYBE, you said it would have to have at least LTE.

Dude, just admit it. You are wrong this one time by a mile.

7 John { 01.08.11 at 6:47 pm }

@sprocklets
And if Verizon does announce LTE support ………?

8 sprockkets { 01.08.11 at 8:27 pm }

He is still wrong, because it will still have to support CDMA. Besides, he never predicted that in 2011 it would debut either. And history is not on his side as Apple didn’t release a 3G iphone even though the tech was already there, and verizon has virtually no coverage yet with it, so even if it supported it, it means nothing for now.

9 HammerOfTruth { 01.08.11 at 9:18 pm }

The one thing that stands out at CES is how many products are introduced, but never ship. Everybody and their grandma is making an Adenoid tablet and NOBODY is talking price of these so called “iPad killers”. The only reason why Apple has ever gotten a shred of respect out of CES is because they sold the crap out of iPods and the market noticed.

Macworld was the place to go. I don’t care what Jobs says, Macworld was more significant to Apple then all of the visitors to their stores. They had actual Apple engineers and software experts at the show. Try finding that at an Apple store. I can understand that Jobs was sick and didn’t want to do the show anymore, but I think if the show can survive without Apple long enough for the media and the general public to tire of Apple, then they will be back.

As far as the iPhone on Verizon, it’s funny how the media who have already claimed that Android devices have overtaken iPhones in market share are clamoring about a Verizon iPhone. They realized the grass isn’t greener on Dr. Schmidt’s side of the fence, but there sure is a lot of dog poop.

10 John E { 01.08.11 at 11:08 pm }

Let’s see. Apple has always made some kind of important announcements early in every year, usually at MacWorld until it stopped participating. next week they will let Verizon do its iPhone thing. the week after is the quarterly financial report, which is certain to be spectacular and include the latest stats on iPad sales, etc. both events will get huge media coverage.

then what? well i gotta think Apple will unveil iPad 2 in February. we’ll see it demo’ed at one of those Apple special press events in SF. camera(s), display upgrade, spec bumps, 4G “ready,” lighter weight. and one of my 2011 predictions is this will include a new third category of iOS apps for Apple TV too (16:9, 1280×720), integrated with the iPad as controller. so Apple will also release the ATV app SDK that day. some game developers will demo how it works, and it will be totally cool. also, some magazine guys will show off their new iPad subscription apps. and oh yeah, last of all Zuckerberg will demo the new FaceBook iPad app. and call Steve J “grandpa.”

this will all cause a media hype frenzy, culminating in long lines when iPad 2 goes on sale in early March.

and no one will even remember CES … after all, what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas.

11 addicted44 { 01.08.11 at 11:43 pm }

@sprocketts

Can you link to where Dan said that (I do believe you may be correct about no CDMA iPhone, but I could not find any evidence about that, and I think Daniel’s was a more nuanced statement).

12 sprockkets { 01.09.11 at 12:25 am }

@addicted44 http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2009/04/28/the-iphone-isnt-coming-to-verizon/
Points made:

1. Ridiculed USA today for publishing “a weak bit of sensationalism under the guise of journalism, strongly suggesting there was some basis for believing that Apple would partner with Verizon Wireless to deliver an iPhone capable of working on Verizon’s network. That’s wrong, here’s why.”
So, let’s see where everyone is wrong and DED isn’t

2. Quoting Tim Cook. “…“very happy with the relationship that we have [with AT&T] and do not have a plan to change it,” and that “CDMA doesn’t really have a life to it after a point in time.”

3. Cannot meet demand of UTMS phones. “There is no chance of an iPhone for Verizon. Apple is having enough difficulty delivering optimized UMTS 3G support”

4. Bad for Att “but that would also ground the high voltage differential that is streaming premium data users to AT&T, a flow that is both sparking free press and higher profits around the iPhone.”
5. Why make one when there is only so much of a pool of users that will buy an iphone? This means that it really won’t boost apple sales at all. “What good is it to develop a secondary, parallel development of the iPhone to gain a standing in front of 80 million potential new customers when you lose your existing partner currently promoting the iPhone to 80 million existing customers as well as sucking the life from Sprint and syphoning the cream off the top of Verizon?”
6. Not the target demographic. “Note too that most of Verizon’s 80 million customers are not high end data customers interested in the iPhone, but people looking for a free, low-end “feature” phone and a $50 service plan. Why would Apple halve its telephony development efforts to cater to a tiny demographic of the world currently attached to a dead end mobile phone technology?”
7. CDMA is dead in two years. “CDMA/EVDO will essentially be dead in just two years, as far as data-rich smartphones go. Verizon is aiming at building out a new LTE network to deliver a really fast mobile network that can keep up with AT&T’s. Currently, Verizon does offer better 3G coverage in certain areas of the US, but that’s where the puck is, not where it’s going. EVDO will be EDGE two years from now. In 2011, Apple doesn’t want to be back in 2007 again.”
8. The challenge of making a CDMA stack. This is classic, as if it would really be such a hard task for apple to do. “It would be ridiculous for Apple to spend a year developing an EVDO mobile stack so that it could offer potential AT&T switchers a lazier alternative ”
Which of course is also stupid to say this because any LTE phone on Verizon will require CDMA support, and possibly even 1x support. So why would making a CDMA stack be so in vain?
9. And where are those Macs with build in WLAN support? “Apple may well be in talks with Verizon, not about an iPhone (why screw up the deal with AT&T?), but with new Macs set to be released with WWLAN support for mobile networks.”

The article finishes: “That means no public comments, just hints that no CDMA/EVDO iPhone is forthcoming.”

13 Dave Lindhout { 01.09.11 at 8:01 am }

Wintel will go the way of the mainframe. It will be relegated to a support role. The world has started the move to mobile devices, that’s where the action is.

The mobile era of the information age begins with a much more competitive start. ARM is supported by several sources, as opposed to IBM and Wintel in the previous eras. Samsung, Qualcomm, TI and others are all competing to build the best ARM chip. On the software side we have iOS, Android, Blackberry, WebOS, Meego, WP7. There’s a delightful solution for everybody in that list.

CES did nothing to cool the hotness of the iPad. Something like 100 tablets announced. Most won’t see the light of day. None are competitive with the iPad. Honeycomb has upped the hardware ante. Is there a need to follow suit?

2010 is the year that the information age took a giant left turn, or right turn, depending on your perspective.

14 addicted44 { 01.09.11 at 8:55 am }

@sprockkets

Thanks for that link. Its exactly what I was looking for.

To be honest, I don’t think its as much of an indictment as I thought it would be. Look at the date on that article (April, 2009). That was nearly 2 years ago! To consider how much 2 years means in the mobile world, 2 years before that article was written, not a single iPhone had been sold yet, and even the idea of the App Store did not exist. But most relevant to this situation, Verizon hadn’t adopted the Droid alternatives yet.

The other article I had linked has Dan saying that Apple will bring the iPhone to Verizon for one reason…to stop Verizon from using its muscle to constantly push Android. Since this wasn’t happening in Apr 2009, it wasn’t as clear that Apple needed to be on Verizon.

I agree that Dan overdoes his “I have never said anything wrong” shtick, but at the same time, he has been the most prescient and astute commentator on the iPhone, and the mobile space (well, Horace Dieu is slowly becoming that though). I don’t think there is anything wrong with changing your opinion based on new evidence, but rather, is something to be admired, in a commentator.

15 kerryb { 01.09.11 at 9:28 am }

What we know about 2011 is new iPad, Lion, iPhone. What we don’t know is when and how Apple will use that big cloud facility it has built in the one of the Carolinas. Steve’s “trucks vs cars” analogy will become more evident as small apps will dominate our daily lives with the desktop apps really staying at the office. Growth will be in mobile devices and mobile apps (even for the desktop). Watching the master plans unfold from Cupertino makes being a fan of Apple products a lot of fun.

16 berult { 01.09.11 at 9:42 am }

Dilger’s April 09 post should be read in its proper, more encompassing context.

The key element to consider here is the rate of dumb phone\smart phone conversion. It’s exploding right now thanks to the combine effects of the iPhone qualitative impact and Google’s quantitative response to it through its Android willful commoditization process.

The market for smart mobile devices is in the process of overtaking classical means of computing, managing one’s needs and deeds, be they leisure or work related. In any paradigm shift, any revolution, parameters morph into variables, rates of change included, all hell breaks loose that renders prognoses “ultra vires” and relegates them to mere footnotes in History.

Again, all things being equal, Dilger’s 089 highly logical take on CDMA\GSM versus Apple’s strategic aims could only be superseded by a mobile revolution, indeed a revolution propelled largely by the iOS ecosystem and more importantly, fueled by runaway dumb phone conversions.

I’m comfortable with Dilger’s limits as an Apple’s “core genius” analyst for he largely focuses on logic heavily weighed by actual results and ensuing causality, and refreshingly very little on insider’s cold, self-serving strategy. One can feel and listen to the breath of this fallible mortal through the clunky noise of aseptic analysis.

17 sprockkets { 01.09.11 at 10:49 am }

“I don’t think there is anything wrong with changing your opinion based on new evidence, but rather, is something to be admired, in a commentator.”

I agree. If he simply said he is wrong on his prediction, I wouldn’t care less, in fact, I’d admire that.

But he didn’t. Instead, he pretends he said it wouldn’t happen until 2011, which he didn’t.

But I don’t expect him to reply. He posts much more BS on appleinsider as well, with trollish headlines and regurgitates the same stupid trash about Android.

18 luisd { 01.09.11 at 1:57 pm }

@sprockkets,

What I don’t get it is why you take Daniels’ views on Androin as a personal offence, or as an insult to you. To be honest, whether he got this particular one right or wrong it’s irrelevant, his insight in the industry is extremely good and most of the time bang on target (which is very rare amongst blogger or pundits).

It appears to me that Apple adjusted to the market and changed its plan accordingly. Kudos to Apple. This does not make Daniel’s two years old analysis neither wrong nor correct. At the time it made sense, circumstances changed and so did the landscape. Hindsight always gives a new perspective. Daniel has since then kept looking at the data from many sources with a more critical eye than most, and provided very enjoyable to read articles, analysis and opinions. Only hindsight will say if he is right or wrong, but again, the insight he gives is what is valuable about his articles, not the accuracy of his predictions.

Let go, or if you really have to persevere start your own blog, spread your own views, and who knows, one day you may even be noticed by the Macalope ;)

19 sprockkets { 01.09.11 at 2:55 pm }

@luisd, don’t be an apologist.
DED got it wrong and then has the audacity to make it look like he didn’t. Hell, even on appleinsider he is ridiculed for his lack of journalism.

20 danieleran { 01.09.11 at 3:50 pm }

@sprockkets:
I have never stated I’m not ever wrong. I’m not an omniscient god, no do I pretend to be. I’m an observer who has access to a lot of different sources and does a lot of research, and I try to present the most accurate take on what’s happening, for free, so that others can benefit from what I’ve seen.

I’ve merely pointed out that when I state a logical case for something (such as saying a CDMA iPhone wasn’t in the pipeline for 2009) and people like you ridicule me for it without offering anything other than wishful hopes, it doesn’t exonerate the predictions from 2009 that said a Verizon iPhone was imminent. They were indeed wrong, and I don’t think I was wrong because there was not any potential for a Verizon iPhone until time and circumstances changed dramatically.

I think its absolutely inane that you would try to suggest otherwise in your rather desperate attacks to vilify me and my supposed “lack of journalism” just because you don’t like the series of accurate predictions I’ve made in the past, for whatever various non-rational reasons you have.

AppleInsider’s comments are full of trolls such as yourself. You’re more than welcome to hang out there so the signal to noise ratio on my own site isn’t contaminated with your angry, ugly, unprofessional, childish and mean-spirited attacks.

And while you might like Android, it is really just a third rate copy of the iPhone experience and Java platform that offers little value to anyone apart from cloner PC makers without the capability of building their own software, and Google’s own ad-ambitions, making it a poor reason to hate on others with scathing invectives whenever they present unflattering facts about it and its lack of performance technically or in the marketplace.

Do the owners of cars made by Korean companies aping BMW designs spend much of their free time hating on BMW for offering the world an original design? No. They why are Android fans often such assholes? Please tell me what drives your passion for third rate knock off shit. Or just pipe down until you have something interesting to say.

21 themacpundit { 01.09.11 at 3:54 pm }

If you think the Android folk are nutsy now….wait until the Verizon iPhone (and the inevitable Sprint and T-Mobile iPhone) whittle down Android to it’s “true” market-share (in other words when it has to compete with a superior, better designed, no more expensive alternative)

22 beanie { 01.09.11 at 4:48 pm }

Daniel Eran wrote:
“I’d also like to take credit for predicting, controversially, that 2010 would be the beginning of the end of Android hype.”

Duh. Android came from last place at the end of 2009 to surpass iPhone in units sold per quarter at the end of 2010. Android has reached critical mass. Android has fulfilled its hype and will soon overtake Symbian as number one smartphone OS.

In Daniel’s article from one year ago:
http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2010/01/02/android-hype-vehicle-set-to-crash-in-2010

He writes: “Android offers nothing to make devices significantly cheaper…” Well, initial Android were priced about the same as iPhone, but now many are priced below with a contract.

He writes concludes: “This sets up why Android is far more likely to fail rather than to prosper or reach critical mass in 2010.” He wrote the article two months after Motorola Droid was launched, which was the first real mass market Android phone.

I’m not really an Android fan. I just enjoy seeing Apple getting some competition as Apple fans are so arrogant and condescending.

23 davebarnes { 01.09.11 at 5:01 pm }

Screw phones, let’s look at the App Store.
I predict that it will be huge. Not in dollar terms, but in impact.

1. The marginal cost of software which has been purchased via the App Store is ZERO when you add a Mac to your household.

2. Incredibly easy-to-use and to buy software. Not a big deal for me (nor you) as I know how to find software via MacUpdate, etc. Most people do not. All those people who own iPod Touches, iPhones and/or iPads but who do not own a Mac will be much more likely to buy one because they already know how to find/buy software for it.

3. Some small developers will see their net revenue explode.

4. Software suites (I am looking at you Microsoft and Adobe) will become less attractive.

24 themacpundit { 01.09.11 at 5:11 pm }

I’m not completely sure what all the fuss is about in regard to Daniel’s prior blogging on the subject of the Verizon iPhone. In a perfect world it would have made sense to wait for the LTE networks to mature so Apple could make one SKU for every carrier.

But the rise of Android has changed the facts on the ground. Don’t get me wrong, Android hasn’t succeed because of it’s quality, polish or user experience. It’s succeeded because:

1. It’s a no cost OS that carriers and hardware makers can lard up with their own skins and terrible apps.

2. It’s the only thing the carriers can push when they don’t have the iPhone. And the nice thing about the iPhone is that it doesn’t need that much advertising or pushing to sell.

And Daniel has fact checked himself in prior posts: http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2007/11/10/wye-wyg-roughlydrafted-fact-checking/

He’s not perfect, but he’s worth a 100 “analysts” any day of the week.

25 berult { 01.09.11 at 5:30 pm }

“DED got it wrong and then has the audacity to make it look like he didn’t. Hell, even on appleinsider he is ridiculed for his lack of journalism.” sprockkets { 01.09.11 at 2:55 pm }

As one who has lived through a “democracy undermining” deterioration in the practice of Journalism, I would personally feel honored to be seen as straying far from the present journalistic standards of integrity. Ridicule is, as is the absence of it, in the eyes of the Beholder. I’ve trained myself to argue from the absence of it.

26 sprockkets { 01.09.11 at 6:59 pm }

“I have never stated I’m not ever wrong. I’m not an omniscient god, no do I pretend to be. I’m an observer who has access to a lot of different sources and does a lot of research, and I try to present the most accurate take on what’s happening, for free, so that others can benefit from what I’ve seen. ”

Right, and something called “Natal” isn’t vaporware either. Nor did Win7 tank.
“I’ve merely pointed out that when I state a logical case for something (such as saying a CDMA iPhone wasn’t in the pipeline for 2009) and people like you ridicule me for it without offering anything other than wishful hopes, it doesn’t exonerate the predictions from 2009 that said a Verizon iPhone was imminent. They were indeed wrong, and I don’t think I was wrong because there was not any potential for a Verizon iPhone until time and circumstances changed dramatically.”

Or you are wrong for vilifying someone for stating that back in 2009 Apple and Verizon were talking about preparing for a CDMA iphone.

Who knows? You never quote your sources.

“I think its absolutely inane that you would try to suggest otherwise in your rather desperate attacks to vilify me and my supposed “lack of journalism” just because you don’t like the series of accurate predictions I’ve made in the past, for whatever various non-rational reasons you have.”

Uh, as of late what have you accurately predicted? Saying that Apple took the wind out of CES with an app store for the mac is quite your opinion, not fact.

“AppleInsider’s comments are full of trolls such as yourself. You’re more than welcome to hang out there so the signal to noise ratio on my own site isn’t contaminated with your angry, ugly, unprofessional, childish and mean-spirited attacks.”

You brought it upon yourself with your trollish headlines like “HP’s Jon Rubinstein slams Android, takes on Apple’s iPad” when no such “slamming” happened, or “http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/10/12/13/androids_weak_sales_drive_verizon_toward_apples_iphone.html” you drew a wrong conclusion based on the data, mr. damned lies and statistics.

“And while you might like Android, it is really just a third rate copy of the iPhone experience and Java platform that offers little value to anyone apart from cloner PC makers without the capability of building their own software, and Google’s own ad-ambitions, making it a poor reason to hate on others with scathing invectives whenever they present unflattering facts about it and its lack of performance technically or in the marketplace.”

OH NO! IT LACKS “IMMERSIVE” ADVERTISING!

Seriously, you shit on every other platform without even trying it. Perhaps you can take a note from Anand at anandtech.com and actually try a Windows7 phone before you pointlessly trash it. He’s a long time apple user, and found it to be more fluid, more advanced and useful of a phone.

“Do the owners of cars made by Korean companies aping BMW designs spend much of their free time hating on BMW for offering the world an original design? No. They why are Android fans often such assholes? Please tell me what drives your passion for third rate knock off shit. Or just pipe down until you have something interesting to say.”

You see, there you go again. You act as if apple came up with everything and everyone else just copies, and that everyone wants to drive a BMW, which apple clearly isn’t (a BMW can drive on any road, you can figure the rest of the analogy on you own).

Nor am I really a fan of Android. Of course, only “freetards” use that phone, because it obviously follows the GNU way of doing things, and only real customers buy iphones. Clearly.

Actually the only part about apple and the iphone I hate is their arbitrary rules about apps in their store. Prohibiting third party tools just to spite Adobe isn’t going to win over developers. Accepting apps then later pulling them because they violate the TOS doesn’t inspire confidence that they actually check the apps either.

Seriously, it shouldn’t take the 4 iteration of the phone to allow people to change their own background. That’s just anal. Nice that they came around and gave people the freedom to personalize their phone and relaxed their rules, but it wasn’t out of the kindness of Steve Jobs that happened.

27 Bill { 01.09.11 at 7:03 pm }

Nice article. Just FYI, we just updated to Exchange 2010 and Apple’s Mail, iCal and Address Book works great…for free. Outlook 2011 works well, but cost a few dollars. The interesting part is that the iPhone works well, but some older DROIDS do not. Bummer for them. Well, I hope Verizon makes them happy with everything else, because they ain’t gettin’ email. Personally, I have not had a problem with ATT in the Northeast, nor has my wife.

28 Mr. Reeee { 01.09.11 at 7:17 pm }

Another excellent article.

Thanks for putting sprockets in his place, although I see he cannot find the grace to STFU.

And yes, mobile is the future and Microsoft and Windows is/are the new mainframe.

Case in point…
I’ve been driving around Costa Rica on holiday (since New Year’s Day) and at nearly every bus stop, even waaaay out in the boonies, there have been at least 1 or 2 people intently banging away at some sort of mobile device. Even driving on rutted 4×4 roads on the Osa Peninsula, there was a broken down bus and 6 people all on phones standing in the weeds. It’s pretty amazing given that clean water, electricity and other such amenities we take for granted are at a premium here.

With Apple virtually owning the mobile space with iOS and ‘i’ devices the next decade should be intriguing indeed. Android phones are like Windows… Functional, cheap and just good enough for many. Yet the ones I’ve seen and used don’t even begin to approach the level of software polish that we Mac users have taken for granted for years! Yes, there are some nicely designed Android devices, but after all the OS is the most important component, the thing we actually work with. Without that, why bother.

29 shadash { 01.09.11 at 8:11 pm }

Hopefully I am not in the “troll” category. I disagreed with Dan in the past on the whole Verizon/iPhone issue, but he hasn’t made negative predictions about this for a long time. Seems like sprockkets wants to bitch about Apple more than Dan’s predictions anyway. So I’ll second the suggestion to STFU.

30 robnoah { 01.09.11 at 11:19 pm }

The most popular devices still have the cute Apple logo. None of the others competing with Apple can yet challenge the industry’s hunk let alone beat it into Dan’s prediction of a Golden Age for Apple.
Whoa what is further in the future is something many have been posting lately about iPad 2 etc. I would say a better iPad and iPhone are all on the books and it is no good being irritated when Android is being left as second best because that is just the way it is. Will it stay this way somehow I think that it will be a tough fight but with enough joining up of other industry giants there will be new devices that will come racing behind Apple and may even pass them but not today only in the future.
Another good article Dan thanks! Don’t let those turkeys get to you.

31 marsviolet { 01.10.11 at 2:26 am }

@beanie

Duh. Android came from last place at the end of 2009 to surpass iPhone in units sold per quarter at the end of 2010.

I heard that Android phones were being given away — two for the price of one. Imagine if Apple did that! But then, they don’t have to, do they?

32 DesperateDan { 01.10.11 at 2:29 am }

Jeez it’s getting tense around here…

I think the Android fans protest far too much and far too angrily. They’re actually worse than the Windows fans from a year or two ago.

I suppose Daniel is a bit overly enthusiastic towards Apple, both here (where it’s his site so he can say what he wants), and at AI. This can dilute some of his validity as a pundit as he’s seen as being too pro-Apple, but you have to admit he’s bang on the money WAY more than any other ‘analyst’.

How anyone can argue that Android is ANYTHING other than a cheap knock-off of iOS is bewildering. Seeing where they were heading before iPhone is a matter of public record.

Android is a mess and it’s only going to get worse and Daniel has been saying this from the very start, in quite some detail. He was a bit of a lone voice at the start too but he’s been absolutely bang on with just about everything he said so deserves a lot of respect for what he says today.

Show me another pundit with a track record of such far sighted predictions?

33 marsviolet { 01.10.11 at 2:36 am }

Re: 25sprockkets

Is it just me, or do Fandroids sound a lot like Teabaggers? It makes sense. Teabaggers are radicalized liberal haters alienated to the outermost fringes of the GOP. Similarly, Fandroids are radicalized Mac haters alienated to the outermost fringes of the PC community. They are full of venom and spite and can do nothing other than hiss and spit and make grammatical errors.

34 MarkyMark { 01.10.11 at 3:54 am }

Look, one of the main reasons that Dan was right several years back – AT THAT TIME – about no possibility of a Verizon iPhone was that Verizon’s upper management was basically spitting in Apple’s face and refusing to do any remotely reasonable deal that Apple could agree to. My how times have changed in the years since then; hell has basically frozen over, Apple is in the driver’s seat, and Verizon is now begging for the iPhone and willing to deals that would have been unthinkable for them in the past.

35 sprockkets { 01.10.11 at 4:40 am }

Hey, guys, since obviously you are too stupid to read my earlier post, I don’t care about the whole android vs. apple argument, it’s this “My critics like to complain that was wrong when I said that the iPhone wouldn’t come to Verizon in 2008 and 2009 and 2010, but it seems to have turned out that I was correct after all.”
Sorry, but you mr daniel or others have not replied to any of your points made in 2009 as to why it is now they are no longer correct. And you did not predict back then that in 2011 that a CDMA iphone would come out; you simply started agreeing with the rumors instead of ridiculing them.

36 luisd { 01.10.11 at 5:18 am }

@Sporckkets:
“Since you are too stupid, we obviously did not read your earlier post.”
There, I fixed it.

I’m sure calling people stupid for not reading your posts is the best way to ensure you are taken seriously. Well done!

37 root { 01.10.11 at 6:45 am }

Apple’s Mac App Store is so old.
I’ve had the same features on Linux since the late 90′s. And 5,000 end user apps(32,000-plus packages) in the software repository for Ubuntu. All automatically update.
Se more in a articel from Joe Brockmeier:
http://www.networkworld.com/community/node/70405

[Distributing software isn't what's new; it's the business model. That's also the difference between Napster and iTunes. There's nothing wrong with Unix package managers for those that use them, it's just that the Mac App Store does something significantly new and different for both users and developers. - Dan]

38 ShabbaRanks { 01.10.11 at 7:29 am }

@ DesperateDan

“I think the Android fans protest far too much and far too angrily. They’re actually worse than the Windows fans from a year or two ago”

To be fair to Windows lovers, FOSS people have always been like this. You see, back in the day Apple and OSX was the public face of what could be achieved using Open Source. Linux wasn’t catching on except amongst server people and techies like myself. Therefore, all the whiney nerd rage went completely towards Microsoft.

FOSS has a new face now. Not Ubuntu (people on the street still think it’s an African bum disease) but Android. iOS is to Android what Windows was to Linux. Evil, closed, Andrew Ryan style capitalism and greed gone mad. Everyone who uses it is a sheep and simply doesn’t know better. Apple fans are used to being the minority so find it very odd to suddenly become the villain on the same scale of Microsoft.

A good example of how bad the FOSS world, even in it’s upper echelons, can be is in one particular episode of the TWiT network’s FOSS podcast where one poor soul who did something taboo was crucified for a whole hour by some know-all dickwipe who obviously felt he was morally right one. I’ll find a link if I get the time.

39 adobephile { 01.10.11 at 8:09 am }

Though I’d love to join in some of these spitting contests just for the fun of it, I doubt if I could come across much better than some already have against the main foe of us all: stupidity–that simply being : not knowing the facts (to hell with opinions).

I like to do most of my own observing and concluding, and what attracts me to reading DED’s postings is that his stated observations and conclusions are similar to mine more often than not.

I like the fact that he’s not afraid to shoot from the hip and rarely bothers to mince words.

There’s also nothing wrong with being “overly enthusiastic” about Apple matters. That company works its collective heart out to produce
the best products it can, and I for one really appreciate that. I show that appreciation by buying its products AND by expressing it in words whenever and wherever I can.

40 OneGeV { 01.10.11 at 8:25 am }

The fact that there will likely be a Verizon iPhone in 2011, does not invalidate the fact that there was no Verizon iPhone in 2008, 2009, and 2010, which DED predicted correctly at the time. A prediction made in the past, based on the situation at that time, does not necessarily imply anything about now, if the situation has changed.

Read this statement more literally: “I’d also like to take credit for predicting, controversially, that 2010 would be the beginning of the end of Android hype.” He is not saying the end of Android, but the end of the hype. Which is correct. DED has been pointing out how (before 2010) most critics were turning a blind eye to any faults of Android, while praising any virtues it has. Now that Android is more mature, more critics are mentioning its problems, instead of giving it a free (but ad supported) pass.

41 sprockkets { 01.10.11 at 9:16 am }

“I’m sure calling people stupid for not reading your posts is the best way to ensure you are taken seriously. Well done!”

Right, and I guess that’s why one person’s opinion that CES is all about Android tablet’s vs. the ipad shows you share DED’s myopic view of the world, which you all bill as “insightful” and a well written piece of nothing.

Enjoy your RDF guys.

42 sprockkets { 01.10.11 at 9:20 am }

ShabbaRanks, if you want a real open source phone, there is the Nokia N900 or anything they will release with Meego. Android is just a phone with a Linux kernel, and as such no DED branded “freetards” use that as an example of what Linux is or does.

Of course, this very web site runs Linux and Apache, but don’t tell Mr. I sell a book about OSX server that.

43 adobephile { 01.10.11 at 9:21 am }

@sprockkets

The weak-minded are denied the fruits of observation.

44 TheMacAdvocate { 01.10.11 at 10:11 am }

@sprockkets
Such well-presented arguments. I enjoyed watching your hate spin out of control. I’m sure it’s not half as much as I’ll enjoy watching your head explode when the Verizon announcement transforms your precious Android into the rounding error it would have always been if not for the artificial Verizon bubble in the U.S. Happy 2011!

http://themacadvocate.com/2011/01/04/tim-bray-if-google-only-had-apples-unicorns/

45 gctwnl { 01.10.11 at 10:17 am }

I come here because I think Daniel writes sharp and astute and colourful analyses with a nice Apple-positive taste (which Apple deserves, let’s be honest).

However, with “My critics like to complain that was wrong when I said that the iPhone wouldn’t come to Verizon in 2008 and 2009 and 2010, but it seems to have turned out that I was correct after all” Daniel makes himself (and his critics) the subject instead of the industry he covers.

He understandably reacts to sometimes rather vicious and sometimes ad hominem attacks on his Apple-positive approach. But putting that in the columns themselves only opens up another road for such attacks. If people are too agressive in the comments, expose them there (or ignore them), but it only weakens the appeal of the analyses for me (ymmv) if they are not about Apple (or replies to the arguments in other analyses of Apple like Thurotts etc.) but about Daniel Eran Dilger.

46 sprockkets { 01.10.11 at 10:20 am }

TheMacAdvocate, um, for the like the 4th time, I don’t give a shit about iOS vs. Android marketshare. I hate it when people as already stated, claim they are right when they aren’t. I wouldn’t have even cared one bit, but DED brought it up, and I don’t feel sorry for it one bit. If he can put the face of a pundit on Gollum, he can take criticism.

And perhaps you can’t see this, but when people advertise products 24/7 like the ipad and the droid are, they start selling because of the product awareness.

Or you can also refer back to DED’s own article about why releasing the phone on Verizon will not net any more subscribers.

Or you can just act like another stupid Mac user and spew out strawman arguments all day.

47 sprockkets { 01.10.11 at 10:24 am }

Hey Macintard, I left a comment for you to read on your stupid blog. I’m sure you will post it along with all your other bull shit pie charts you give to your readers to eat.

48 luisd { 01.10.11 at 10:27 am }

May I suggest we stop feeding the troll? And that includes myself, I promise I will ignore him now. He’s a regular in Apple Insider, please feed him there, so he stays over there. Let’s try to keep the discussion on this site interesting.

Cheers

49 TheMacAdvocate { 01.10.11 at 10:39 am }

@sprockkets

Thanks for visiting. Hope you enjoyed the stupid pie, although it looks like you binge out on it regularly. I doubt you even taste it anymore. Also, please continue to interject “Mactard” and “stupid” into your comments so fellow posters can easily identify you by your intelligence and deftly applied logic.

Bullshit is one word, BTW.

50 marsviolet { 01.10.11 at 10:56 am }

Sprockkets sounds like that nut in Arizona.

51 gus2000 { 01.10.11 at 11:05 am }

Daniel is not slanted in Apple’s favor. Reality is slanted in Apple’s favor, and Daniel just points it out.

Lets get back to the point of the article: that it’s painful to watch the unimaginative try to create, or the uncool try to be cool, or the clumsy attempt to dance. It’s also painful to watch the unimportant people at CES beat their chests about how important they are.

I find it ironic that everyone refers to Apple products as “Unicorns” when 90% of the techno-crap at CES will vanish, while Apple delivers real, usable products.

A product in the hand is worth 20 in the vaporware bush.

52 gus2000 { 01.10.11 at 11:07 am }

P.S.

if (internet.usertype = troll) { feed(NULL) }

53 adobephile { 01.10.11 at 11:10 am }

Good one, gus200, but isn’t it:

if(internet.usertype == troll) { feed(NULL) }

54 sprockkets { 01.10.11 at 11:44 am }

CES is pretty much a place for demoing vaporware. Don’t you guys ever go to auto shows? It’s like the same concept. Sheesh.

Sony demoed a 3D camera. Will it see the light of day? Who knows, it’s interesting, and it gives PR points to Sony.

“if (internet.usertype = troll) { feed(NULL) }”

Good advice. Apple sites make it far too easy for it to happen though. It isn’t as if there are simple rational reasons to like their products. They just have, their “unique” fan base.

55 themacpundit { 01.10.11 at 12:30 pm }

@TheMacAdvocate

Loved the charts. Of course tech pundits will wonder who could have foreseen that iOS would displace Android so dramatically….

56 ShabbaRanks { 01.10.11 at 2:21 pm }

Found it

http://twit.tv/floss91

Leo Laporte shows how bad a podcastmaster he is on this doozy.

57 Maniac { 01.10.11 at 2:27 pm }

@ sprockkets – “He posts much more BS on appleinsider as well, with trollish headlines and regurgitates the same stupid trash about Android.”

I notice that you post on Apple Insider as well. With plenty of trollish anti-Apple attitude. You sound like some kind of Google attack dog. Are they paying you?

58 luisd { 01.10.11 at 2:38 pm }

@ Maniac,
Try
if(internet.usertype == troll) { feed(NULL) }
catch
{post{NULL}
end

59 robnoah { 01.10.11 at 8:18 pm }

Trolls remain trolls.
The Mac App Store now leads the Apple business plan. I recall when the Mac was filled with software problems and disappointments aka Mac 8.0-9.0 days! Sorry though I love Mac these were times of testing that relationship. Along came Steve Jobs and the team to save the day in most areas like research & design, Mac X & Mac ‘s multimedia & office software and new hardware such as the bundled iMacs LCDs that beautified the desktop of millions of homes and further opened up the way for mobile devices.These have now become a major leading leap forward in technology history. At first glance the Mac appears to be roll-coaster of spurts & twists but accusing Apple of arrogance having stupid users is like saying bad things about someone’s mother just to cause hurt and resentment. Where is the well-thought about comments, pleasant, kindly, looking to boost communication and understanding? Who are these scoffers unable to stand up for the Android without complaining about Apple lovers like myself.

60 gctwnl { 01.10.11 at 11:24 pm }

Shouldn’t that be along the lines of

if (![user typeEquals:troll]} {
[self reply];
}

We could do a one liner without if or ?: too:

[self replyUnlessTroll:user];

61 bazza_clarke { 01.11.11 at 3:01 am }

@sprockkets

you may find this interesting:
The Most Worthless Week in Tech: The case against the Consumer Electronics Show –http://www.slate.com/id/2280219/pagenum/all/#p2

As you acknowledge a lot of concept products gets shown at CES. And Apple doesn’t do concept products (http://counternotions.com/2008/08/12/concept-products )

So it is really easy for Apple to blow away CES, eg Mac App store, as it is a real product that has been used at least a million times rather than the vapour concepts from other companies.

62 root { 01.11.11 at 5:20 am }

The important thing with iPad and Android is that they break up what the public sees as a computer more and more, and with it also the Microsoft dominance. Very nice!
Then that Apple has at least as bad for us developers and a very dangerous rival because they actually do both good and proper functioning of hardware and a decent operating system. Apple has its strong supporters … No, to get rid of MS dominance will solve itself probably everything else in time.

Strongly disagree that Android has peaked, there are so many hardware manufacturers who want to build something new and Pad / TV etc. that any of these will be good, really good. A lot of other things will be so cheap that it will be big sellers .. How can you not believe there will be a winner?

“Hype” of course, with vague words can always say that to win, but what do you think?
Five times as many sales as Android IPhone / iPad, three times 1-1. I think at least three times .

63 sprockkets { 01.11.11 at 9:26 am }

Hey guess what DED?

“”Today we’re partnering with a giant of the industry, and that’s Apple,” Verizon Chief Operating Officer Lowell McAdam said at Tuesday’s press conference in New York City.

He revealed that Apple and Verizon began talks in **2008**, and the two spent a year testing the iPhone on Verizon’s CDMA network. Introduced at the press conference was Apple Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook, who revealed that Verizon’s handset will have the same features as the existing iPhone 4, including FaceTime video chat and a high-resolution Retina Display.

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/11/01/11/verizon_apple_announce_cdma_variant_of_iphone_4_coming_early_feb_.html

So, are you willing to accept you are possibly wrong about that USA today reporter hearing rumors about a CDMA iphone in 2009? Wrong that it doesn’t have LTE?

I don’t care that you are wrong; just don’t pretend that you aren’t.

64 sprockkets { 01.11.11 at 9:35 am }

“I notice that you post on Apple Insider as well. With plenty of trollish anti-Apple attitude. You sound like some kind of Google attack dog. Are they paying you?”

Notice how I take issue with DED, not apple itself. I may dislike apple’s tactics at time, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t good, nor do I care that Android takes over or not. In fact, I don’t care even if they have half of what apple has.

Come on. Read this article here. http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2007/06/27/zdnets-mary-jo-foley-says-apples-iphone-needs-activesync/

Did Daniel have to do that? Absolutely not. In fact, Mary did not return the vile and treated Daniel fairly. Dan did retract what he said (because he was wrong, again), but was that necessary? No.

So don’t pretend that DED doesn’t bring it upon himself.

65 TenThousandThings { 01.11.11 at 10:46 am }

@sprockkets #62

“So, are you willing to accept you are possibly wrong about that USA today reporter hearing rumors about a CDMA iphone in 2009? Wrong that it doesn’t have LTE?”

Um, I think not, because it doesn’t have LTE. No voice + data, no LTE. Those two things will have to wait for the iPhone 5.

And technically Dilger wasn’t wrong that there would be no CDMA iPhone in 2010, which is what the USA Today article said was the “goal.” He was only right by a little over a month, but he was nonetheless right.

He also wasn’t wrong that CDMA would be a dead end by 2011, just like Tim Cook wasn’t wrong when he said the same thing. Anyone who buys a Verizon iPhone 4 now is going to be faced with an upgrade decision a year or so after buying. Of course, the same is true for AT&T customers buying now.

Your basic argument, whether you can see it or not, is that Dan was not wildly optimistic enough in 2009 about the future of the iPhone, because only a total Apple homer would have predicted that the iPhone would have so much high-end market prestige that Verizon would pay Apple to produce a dead-end phone they can sell at a premium for a year at best. Dan was arguing against that, rightfully so. He was non-technically wrong, but not for the reasons that you infer — indeed, the exact opposite.

66 sprockkets { 01.11.11 at 11:07 am }

He said if a CDMA phone were to debut, it would have LTE to make sense, as apple didn’t want to be in 2007 in 2011.

He said CDMA is a dead technology in 2009, for the premise of why apple shouldn’t or wouldn’t make a CDMA iphone. But apple did it anyhow.

He said that instead of Apple talking to verizon about an iphone, it was about wireless enabled macs. Instead, the CDMA iphone appears and there are no wireless macs.

All wrong.

Look, even if he said he was just a little off, I would be fine with that. Claiming otherwise is just downright asking for it.

“And technically Dilger wasn’t wrong that there would be no CDMA iPhone in 2010, which is what the USA Today article said was the “goal.” He was only right by a little over a month, but he was nonetheless right.”

He ridiculed the author. “USA Today published a weak bit of sensationalism under the guise of journalism, strongly suggesting there was some basis for believing that Apple would partner with Verizon Wireless to deliver an iPhone capable of working on Verizon’s network. That’s wrong, here’s why.”

There was no time basis added to the argument, no mention that this would be correct, except when he mentioned LTE would be ready, it then would make sense. Except we now know the iphone doesn’t have it, today, but still has CDMA.

No matter how you spin it, he was wrong on his reasons given, and he did not mention anywhere in the article that this would make sense for it to happen, save for it having LTE, which we now know didn’t happen.

67 masternav { 01.11.11 at 2:00 pm }

sprokkets, its time to just give up. Seriously. You are nitpicking and displaying seriously adolescent behavior about all this. You undermine your own opinions with diatribe and insults to the point that no one, even those inclined to support your comments, want to associate with them. I think you would be best served by running your own blog where you can champion your own opinions, call foul on anyone you please and there you can be as rude, desultory and inflammatory (or not) as you wish. All this however parallels your posting behavior over at AI, so I question whether you would follow any advice offered to you.

Daniel, kudos for your restraint in this case. For myself, I would have simply banned such repeated behavior – but I’d rather have silence than rudeness, personal choices being what they are and all.

68 roz { 01.11.11 at 2:52 pm }

We can roast Daniel over this, I don’t really see the point. Some of his predictions were off. Ok.

The bigger issue is why was Apple so late in bringing a CDMA iPhone to market. Clearly they could have done what they did today a couple years ago. Had they done so the market presence of Android would be much less. Now they are shipping a CDMA device just as LTE is being hyped. That does not seem ideal.

The issue is not that Daniel was wrong, it’s that Apple had a strategic failure. Daniel was defending Apple’s market approach, I would say wrongly, and I did at the time but Daniel is just a commentator. For Apple there are real consequences to being late to Verizon.

There are a lot of reason for Apple not to have supported Verizon this long. Either, they just could not make the deal because Verizon thought Android was the answer. Or maybe Apple didn’t want to make the deal because they were happy with ATT and the margins they got there. Possibly they were a bit distracted by the iPad and Jobs health to focus on this. Or they really were contractually tied to ATT in a way that seems unnatural. Who knows. In any case, we are better off that this CDMA phone is shipping. I wish it had been sooner but such is life.

69 adobephile { 01.11.11 at 3:59 pm }

And I don’t see the point of dwelling on all this hot air hoohaa about what could’a and should’a been done in what is already the PAST.

The Verizon Phone is about to appear. All we have to do is sit back and watch how it sells and performs.

70 gctwnl { 01.11.11 at 4:00 pm }

Isn’t China Telecom CDMA? And might the CDMA phone not have also something to do with the boom in that market? Apple clearly hedged its bets (as the CDMA phone has been `ready’ but not in the market (a bit like x86 OSX before Apple made the transition) for a year or more. But if you want to do a China Telecom iPhone you need CDMA anyway, and if you have CDMA and Verizon is really lusting for it you catch two birds in one stroke.

Verizon maybe less growth from CDMA (as part of it comes from AT&T and the US market is further ahead in smartphone saturation) than China Telecom.

71 gslusher { 01.11.11 at 5:08 pm }

@roz:

“The bigger issue is why was Apple so late in bringing a CDMA iPhone to market.”

Considering that Apple started talking with Verizon in 2008, there had to be some non-technical reason for the delay because the engineering surely wouldn’t have taken that long. Jobs hinted at a possible factor in his interview in the D8 conference. Before the iPhone & ATT, carriers always dictated what would be on a phone. Verizon was probably among the very best/worst at doing this. (Heck, they even disabled some capabilities on my cheap Samsung flip phone. The same phone on other carriers can load ringtones and contacts from a PC, but NOT Verizon’s version. I had to buy ringtones at $4.99 each PLUS extra charges for “data access.”) Verizon (among other carriers, of course) still does this with Android phones: they load their own apps that the user can’t delete and control all Android updates. This has always been unacceptable to Apple. The fact that the iPhone is now available for Verizon says to me that Verizon caved. It probably took Verizon a while to realize that THEY were losing revenue and potential subscribers to ATT & the iPhone. (Right now, ATT is within less than one percent of matching Verizon’s subscriber base and becoming the largest carrier in the US, despite their problems.) It may have taken Verizon realizing that they needed the iPhone much more than Apple needs Verizon. (Do realize that Apple sells 70% of iPhones outside the US.)

“Now they are shipping a CDMA device just as LTE is being hyped. That does not seem ideal.”

Read what gctwnl wrote about China Telecom, plus another carrier (Reliance?) in India that is also CDMA. They’re not going to LTE anytime soon.

Together, they have more than twice as many subscribers as Verizon. Perhaps Apple told Verizon that they were going to build a CDMA phone for China and India. If Apple had announced that and the phone wasn’t going to be available on Verizon and the reason was given that Verizon wouldn’t meet the same terms that dozens of other carriers around the world have, Verizon would have taken a BIG hit. Better for Verizon to be the first carrier to officially carry the CDMA iPhone.

I’m a Verizon subscriber, but may switch to ATT to get an iPhone, rather than have to sign a contract with Verizon, whose treatment of me has been abyssmal. For over two years, they would call and sent text messages (which they tried charging me for until I complained, though I did have to pay for the text I had to send–three times–telling them not to send texts to me) telling me that I could get a new phone with a new contract. The calls accelerated until I was getting at least one every week or two after it had been two years past my contract expiration. Finally, I told a supervisor (well, supposedly a supervisor) that, if I got one more call, I’d switch carriers within a week and file a harassment complaint with my state’s AG. The calls stopped, but they should have stopped the first time I asked not to be called, which was the first time they called.

72 Brian Willoughby { 01.11.11 at 7:39 pm }

What about the whole phenomenon of television ad criticisms of iPhone for not being “4G”?

According to the definition of 4G on Wikipedia, none of the products being sold now are anything more than glorified 3G LTE technology. When true 4G finally becomes available, is the industry going to have to call it “5G” just so that people don’t get further confused after all of the fraudulent advertisements?

If competitors want to criticize the iPhone for being slower, then just say that. But to lie and say that the iPhone is only 3G while their product is “4G” is just a poor tactic that will hopefully backfire. 3G LTE is not 4G, not matter how much the marketing types want it to be.

Are we going to have another MPEG-3 that never gets released because it’s out of date by the time it could ship?

… or, have you already covered the “4G” topic in another article, Dan?

73 Dude { 01.11.11 at 9:39 pm }

What’s up with Google dropping support for H.264 video in Chrome?

http://blog.chromium.org/2011/01/html-video-codec-support-in-chrome.html

74 roz { 01.11.11 at 10:18 pm }

@gslusher

Yeah I basically agree with you, except I think there was probably movement on both sides. Apple realized the threat from Android was real – and the Droid hype machine was making an impact. Verizon saw that even though they were starting to have some traction with Droid, they were still losing customers to ATT and ATT was growing high value customers at a faster.

I also think that a factor might have just been the people involved. Verizon is transitioning to a new CEO. I think Seidenberg just was less willing to play ball with Apple and potentially there was some poison in relationship from when Apple first approached them.

And there is, as you say, a culture issue. Both of these companies want to control the experience. Totally correct that VZN messes with devices. I was a customer there for 10 years before switching to ATT for the iPhone. Every cool device came 6 months late and very crippled. It was totally annoying.

It is possible that other markets were a factor but I still think that starting to support CDMA/EVDO in January 2011 is late, setting all these considerations aside, this should have happened with the 3GS upgrade cycle, that would have made a hell of a lot more sense.

I would give it some careful consideration to going ATT. One thing I found after switching to ATT was that the sound quality went way down. That was definitely true with the original iPhone. 3G helped the situation but I still feel like my old CDMA phones had a much better call quality than I get with the iPhone 3GS I now carry. At the same time, I was happy to leave Verizon because by the time the iPhone came out I was just sick of their higher prices and tactics.

@Brian Willoughby

I think its funny that ATT now calls their network 4G because my iPhone clearly says 3G at the top of the phone. Maybe it needs a software update?? ;)

75 thibaulthalpern { 01.12.11 at 5:34 am }

I’m really looking forward to the downfall of the Android hype. I’ve always viewed it as ridiculous that ideologues couch Android in terms of “freedom” and “openness”, using the same kind of rhetoric we do for talking about democracy. Hello, people! Android is JUST as commercial! It exists to get Google more advertising share. It’s getting to the point where Android is being portrayed as a panacea to world peace. I roll my eyes!

76 thibaulthalpern { 01.12.11 at 5:43 am }

Sprockkets, I seem to remember too that Daniel predicted wrong. I remember reading a while back that he said that Apple will never come out with a CDMA phone because CDMA is not a world standard. It’s used only by a few countries. GSM is the standard worldwide. And, Apple isn’t going to waste resources and support by creating a phone model that is primarily going to be used in the U.S.

That’s how I remember what Daniel said. So, if my memory serves me correctly, Daniel’s prediction was that there WON’T be any CDMA phone. So, as much as I am a fan of Daniel’s, he seems to have predicted incorrectly.

77 thibaulthalpern { 01.12.11 at 6:22 am }

I read through all the comments finally and saw Daniel’s response to the question that sprockkets brought up. Anyway, interesting. I haven’t bothered to go back to see what exactly Daniel wrote in 2009. It’s not a big concern of mine whether he did or didn’t predict correctly.

A more interesting question I have is actually does anyone think Apple will produce a combined CDMA/GSM phone for the iPhone 5? I think this would actually be ideal as opposed to making two versions of the iPhone 5. Of course, maybe it won’t be so ideal if a combined CDMA/GSM phone needs to be very bulky and a battery hog.

78 hrissan { 01.12.11 at 12:05 pm }

Daniel, no offence, but you have explained so many times that CDMA is ancient, dying and doomed (I totally agree), and so Apple has no reason to support it, that no wonder I myself seem to remember your position always was “If iPhone on Verizon, then LTE model in 2012 or later”. :)

79 schwabsauce { 01.12.11 at 12:10 pm }

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-12/apple-verizon-took-years-to-overcome-their-iphone-differences.html

This article makes it pretty clear that the only reason it took so long to bring the iPhone to Verizon was because Verizon did not want to share the profits from their service contracts as AT&T does.

In other words, it has absolutely nothing to do with “Apple considering Android a proper threat”. Remember that the “sales” numbers for Android were actually the numbers that were being given away, buy one get one free for $199. Verizon used Google and the hardware vendors to try to pull one over on Apple. Never mind the fact that these hardware makers probably broke the law in their blatant imitation of the iPhone – their relevance is all but finished.

Android may someday grow into a stable system, who knows. The underpinnings of iOS are something like 20 years in the making – when (and if) Android reaches that ripe old age we’ll see if it’s worth a look. Yet, Apple and NeXT had the foresight to be responsible about their use of intellectual property, whereas Google just wholesale stole from Sun/Oracle. Plus, Java is probably never going to amount to anything anyway. It’s nowhere near as productive as modern platforms like Ruby, Cocoa, and HTML5.

Welcome to the fold, suburban and rural Americans! We hope you like it here.

80 roz { 01.12.11 at 1:08 pm }

@schwabsauce

I read that article differently than you do. Look at the main passage explaining why this happened:

“The companies’ detente underscores Verizon’s desire to offer one of the best-selling smartphones, even if it means ceding more control than usual. Apple, meanwhile, gains access to the largest U.S. wireless carrier. That may help maintain its ballooning sales growth and stave off competition from Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co., which use Google Inc.’s Android operating system.

“We said over the last three or four years that the business interests would come together — and they did,” McAdam, who is in line to be Verizon’s chief executive officer, said in an interview.”

When he says their business interests came together, that to me means that both sides saw an interest in working together. Clearly Apple saw a reason to make the deal now. That article mentions Android specifically as part of the reason. You don’t agree with the author of the article you cite?

Also in terms of the revenue sharing. Yes, perhaps Verizon objected to Apple’s early terms that they get a stake in the on-going revenue. And then ATT agreed to those terms. While that might have been a factor in not offering the iPhone on Verizon when it was first introduced, by the time the iPhone 3G shipped those terms were changed. The iPhone 3G and all the ones that followed used the standard mobile phone subsidy model that all carriers and handset makers use. In terms of the revenue sharing mechanism that should not have been an issue after July 2008.

A different issue is how much of a subsidy the carrier pays for the phone. This is the carrier’s price for the equipment. It is possible that the amount of the subsidy was a sticking point. My guess is that even after iPhone 3G, ATT was paying Apple a pretty generous subsidy, and likely it was higher as long as ATT was the exclusive provider.

In that case, Apple would be a faced with a tough dilemma that would have given it a strong incentive to stay exclusive with ATT. Potentially, and we don’t really know the facts – this is clearly speculation, in order to make the deal with Verizon Apple would be sacrificing the exclusive deal with ATT – thus sacrificing margin on one side, and then on the Verizon side because Verizon was not motivated at the time – they would be paying a lower price to Verizon than ATT would offer. The result is that while offering a phone to Verizon was strategic it meant Apple losing money on both sides of the deal. I can see Apple not aggressively seeking that.

Thankfully, it took Android time to get market acceptance and even now when it seems to be selling well it has not had the demand that the iPhone has. In the end both parties could come together before it was too late.

81 schwabsauce { 01.13.11 at 8:47 am }

I do see it differently upon a third reading. It does say that the revenue sharing has ended. Snubbing Verizon initially probably had a lot to do with the GSM technology that allowed Apple to roll the phone out globally, however.

Verizon may have negotiated a lower price for the phones, but I suspect that they also tried to negotiate the issue of software control. Traditionally they have crippled their phones and tightly managed their network traffic. Although they now claim to offer unlimited bandwidth, they have a history of reneging on that service, and the phenomenally high bandwidth that many iPhone users consume could still be a difficult issue.

I still think that now that Verizon customers will start to understand the differences between the pretend iPhones they have been carrying and the real thing, it will become pretty clear that there was never any true competition. In a few months we’ll know!

82 mrBitch { 01.13.11 at 8:41 pm }

@ roz, re:
“When he says their business interests came together, that to me means that both sides saw an interest in working together. Clearly Apple saw a reason to make the deal now…”

The best answer to just how much Apple had to compromise to get the iPhone on Verizon is pretty well summed up in the comments section of this betanews article :
http://www.betanews.com/joewilcox/article/Why-Verizon-wont-let-Apple-announce-iPhone/1294517977

commenter “iphonedroidberry” posts :
(sourced via gruber)

So, to recap, here is how Verizon “takes no crap from suppliers”, and how Verizon “is in the driver’s seat”, and how Verizon “won’t cow before Jobs” and how Verizon “set the terms of the deal”:

a) no V-cast software
b) no Verizon software/bloatware/crapware (of their own or of their partners)
c) no Verizon selling of games music or apps
d) no Verizon branding on the hardware
e) no Verizon control of software/firmware or updates
f) no Verizon control of scheduling of release dates for software updates
g) NO exclusivity deal for a USA CDMA version of iPhone

Beyond those tiny little things, if you overlook items a thru g, yes, Verizon is definitely wearing the pants in the Apple/Verizon relationship.

83 Brian Willoughby { 01.13.11 at 9:14 pm }

Thanks for that comment-link, mrBitch. Very entertaining; and also astute.

84 roz { 01.15.11 at 5:25 pm }

@mrBitch

They came to an agreement with which they were both happy. I kinda think they are both still wearing pants. I don’t get the impression that the Verizon guys rolled over. You want deals where both parties benefit.

From another perspective, Android has traction in the market, it just passed iPhone, so maybe Apple was also motivated to make the deal.

Also, I hate to burst your bubble but I hope you are aware that you are leaving out a significant term for the negotiation: price. Money can balance a lot of issues in a negotiation.

Also, apparently Verizon will have more control of the customer relationship than ATT has had.

My point is that we don’t know all the terms of the deal. But yes many of the terms that people often said made a Verizon phone an impossibility were, in the end, negotiable. I have been saying that on here for a long time.

85 robnoah { 01.15.11 at 6:39 pm }

@MrBitch Thanks for the run down on Verizon vs Apple deal and who actually wears the pants! No doubt about it the iPhone rules and will continue to teach others how to design an amazing super-smart phone…and the tablet “to rule them all”!

86 enzos { 01.15.11 at 7:00 pm }

Yes indeed, Roz, you have! Though Dan wasn’t that far off the mark.

And a blessed 2011 to you

Enz

87 fleetfoot { 02.21.11 at 5:21 am }

PseudoNews:
03/03/11 – Apple announces the impending release of a new remote control device to clear out cow pens. The device will be battery powered and can be controlled via iPhones and/or iPads. It will eliminate the toil of manually dealing with manure.

03/27/11 – In major news today Microsoft, HP, Google, Samsung, Sony, and Toshiba announced their ECO friendly devices for cow manure removal for 2012. These devices will use Windows 7 or Andriod operating systems to provide superior functionality than the Apple iOS equivalents and be available at a substantially lower price point.

88 fleetfoot { 02.21.11 at 8:17 am }

“At midnight all the agents
And the superhuman crew
Come out and round up everyone
That knows more than they do
Then they bring them to the factory
Where the heart-attack machine
Is strapped across their shoulders
And then the kerosene
Is brought down from the castles
By insurance men who go
Check to see that nobody is escaping
To Desolation Row.”
— Bob Dylan

And Mr. Gates & Mr. Ballmer
so well matched that’s for sure
counting all their riches while the
users wonder who
can make sense of this
hopeless case
and wonder why it crashed
with no warning or nor clue
must be something in the air tonight
on electric avenue
It’s just business as usual friends
the policies are all set
Screw them before they get
A chance to screw you.

89 Inside CES 2011: the Copycat Electronics Shitshow — RoughlyDrafted Magazine { 01.09.12 at 10:53 am }

[...] shift the industry. A vision Microsoft would eventually follow several years later. Here’s a recap of how CES has proven to be a graveyard of Microsoftic [...]

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