Daniel Eran Dilger
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iPad, the destroyer: 19 things it will kill

Daniel Eran Dilger

Pundits, particularly of the Windows Enthusiast variety, don’t understand the iPad. It won’t kill the netbook and certainly can’t kill the notebook, they tell us. If only they knew what the iPad was really meant to destroy.

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Steve Jobs likes to kill old things

Back in the 1970s, Steve Jobs pushed his Apple co-founder to kill the expansion slots of the Apple II. Steve Wozniac fought to retain them, but by 1984, Apple was selling lots of machines without slots, including the Apple IIc and the Macintosh. They supplied easier to use ports instead, so users didn’t have to buy a serial expansion card just to plug in their printer.

Jobs killed the 5.25“ floppy drive by introducing the 3.5” floppy on the Macintosh, then killed it off too in the 1998 iMac, telling users to burn CDs or use the network. The iMac also killed off a variety of old legacy ports to capitalize on the premise of Intel’s USB.

In software, Jobs killed off the command-line with the Macintosh only to return to it with NeXTSTEP, but its rich graphic desktop meant users only went there when they wanted to, not when their graphical shell abandoned them in the dark wilderness of DOS at inopportune times. Jobs didn’t kill the CLI, he kill its necessity for all users.

Read Jobs’ more personal musings from the early 80s through the 90s and into the last decade, and you get the clear impression that Jobs understands death as a creative force better than most people. For society, culture, and technology to progress, old thinking has to die off to make way for fresh new ideas. People who don’t die are dragged kicking and screaming in the future the way Strom Thurmond panted into the last decade with segregation still ripe on his breath.

Jobs has uniquely, and remarkably, kept pace with radical changes in technology to maintain a position on the progressive front fringe of tech like no other figure in history. Nobody else has been around for nearly 40 years of progress, continuously leading major companies that define how the world works, and with a finger in everything from the enterprise to education to consumer markets.

A reason to kill

When something works, you don’t need to kill it. But in some cases you should, as Jobs proved time and time again over his career. The iPod Mini was wildly popular, but Apple cut it down at its apex to introduce the Flash RAM iPod nano, which was even smaller and more durable.

Apple could also have mostly sacrificed its iPod business in order to gain the larger and much more lucrative iPhone, but it didn’t do that. Instead, it killed the old idea of what the iPod was: a big hard drive wrapped in a layer of simple user interface for choosing songs from a list.

In its place, it created the iPod touch, which carried on the torch of the iPod brand while slowly phasing out the old identity of the iPod. This is fantastically difficult to do. One only needs to look at companies like Palm and Nokia and Microsoft and Sony to see how much easier it is for even large groups of smart people to take a successful product and let it either die on the vine or fail midway through attempts to revitalize it.

Apple, with Jobs at the helm, has so expertly pulled off massive coups over and over that everyone in the media has been lulled into thinking that this sort of thing is simple stuff that you just plan out and then do by throwing money around, apparently unaware that Sony and Microsoft and Palm and everyone else has had lots of time and money to do what Apple has done over the last decade. They just don’t know how to do it.

The iPad prepares for a killing spree

Apple isn’t about to destroy its MacBook business, which has been expanding dramatically over the last half decade. And it didn’t introduce the iPad to kill off the iPhone or iPod touch. Successfully creating something new without sacrifice is all that much harder to do. It will require Apple to kill off interest in rival things of its competitor’s in order to allow the iPad to inhale the attention spans of consumers that those devices were once consuming.

TV killed off the radio. The CD killed off the audio cassette. DVDs killed off VCRs. The Internet has helped to kill off a variety of things that used to make sense before it, from travel agents to directory assistance operators (if you don’t think those things are dead, you probably are getting fairly old). And so it is that the iPad will kill a lot of stuff.

DVDs. Steve Jobs’ hobby of Apple TV set up a market for immediate movie rentals and purchases via iTunes. That’s still there, but the iPad now delivers the same functionality with wireless mobility, in addition to the value of everything else it does (and unlike the fixed, limited features of ATV). Additionally, iPad also supports services like Hulu and Netflix, which will appeal to a wide audience of users who already use those services. Why do we own DVD’s again? Dead.

eReaders. Oh the Kindle, we hardly knew ye. And the Sony Reader and the B&N Nook. Your e-ink screens pleased pundits and the cat ladies who sit around reading novel after novel, but it was a remarkably limited technology. The rest of your hardware and software was pretty marginal, so it’s hard to weep. Dead.

Stacks of papers in office meetings. Xerox dutifully churns through forests of trees to create documents that will only ever be glanced at once, if that. Greenpeace doesn’t care, because making a stink won’t help it get donations. All the group can be bothered to announce is that the iPad might access servers that sit on the predominantly coal-fired US electrical grid. Stupid jerks. Anyways, every company that is somebody will be passing around iPads loaded with digital documents. Companies are already ordering fleets of iPads, for the same reason their executives sport MacBook Pros: they say “we’re creative and use high quality stuff.” Reams of papers: you’re dead.

Textbooks. Kindle suggested some hope that kids wouldn’t need to be busting their little necks with backpacks full of massive paper volumes of static learning content. But Kindle’s e-ink technology isn’t any good at random page browsing or quickly jumping back and forth between sections. It’s also painful to mark up with annotations. The iPad has none of those problems, and adds all manner of new interactivity and video features, making it a good decade for trees. Short term, thick tomes of rapidly changing educational content: you’re dead.

Netbooks. Oh Dan, you’re so controversial. Netbooks are an amazingly cheap way to get low powered, junky hardware that can even run Linux if anyone cared to. You can type into a word processor, play moron-level Flash weblet games, and even surf the web. Yeah but you can’t enjoy the experience. Netbooks, you’ll only live on in that you’ve already killed of the desktop PC, but your wildly hyped premise? It’s dead.

PSP, DS. Oh no, now you’re just being mean. Think of the children. No, let the children think for themselves. Who wants to shell out $30-50 for a dopey game title when you can download cool $1-5 games to your iPod touch on a regular basis or get rich, major games from big publishers for $6-12 on the iPad? They’re beautiful, wildly interactive, and are going to slay Nintendo and Sony in the portable gaming market. Nintendo’s boss says he doesn’t get the iPad. That’s executive speak for “I’m going down with the ship.” The correct answer was: “We’re creating iPad titles based on our beloved franchises as fast as we can.” Ya’ll are dead.

Brochures. You walk into a Mercedes dealership or begin talking to a real estate agent about that multi-million dollar property and they used to hand you a glossy printed brochure. Screw that. Now you’re going to be handed a digitally interactive version of the product on an iPad you can peruse as the sales expert tugs at your heart strings. They send you a link to look at at home, too. Sold. Glossy print? Dead.

Single-purpose industrial gadgets. Custom developed information systems that cost the government millions to develop in small scale batches. Inventory systems that use some clunky old version of the Windows Mobile platform Microsoft itself just marked for death in its effort to clone the iPhone of 2008 in WP7 next year. Proprietary medical management and note-taking systems, sometimes based on (ugh it stinks) Tablet PC. Category, you could have been a short list unto yourself, but it doesn’t matter because you’re all dead.

Other tablet-ish stuff. Yes, I already mentioned Tablet PC, but this catch-all bucket of death is about the consumer market. This stuff historically kills itself: Palm’s whatever, Nokia Tablets, CrunchPad, UMPC, Slate PC. Along with the death of all this stuff comes the death of Microsoft’s ability to decree what devices are called. It doesn’t make anything anyone wants to buy, so why is it defining all the ridiculous category names? HHPC, UMPC, PMP, really? Microsoft, your leadership in consumer electronics is just like your products and those of Palm and the rest of them: dead.

The credibility of haters. People who earn their livelihood by saying stupid things about Apple, either because they’re shills for a rival firm or because they generate more web traffic staying stupid things about Apple than saying stupid things about another company people care less about, are going to find it remarkably difficult to prattle off more of the same garbage they’ve trotted out repeatedly about the iPhone, the iPod touch, and the iPad. John Dvorak, Daniel Lyons, Paul Thurrott, etc, ad nauseum aren’t going to be able to be taken seriously at Apple’s next launch. But those people aren’t being taken seriously now; the real change will be that fraud marketing and public relations groups who prepare “data” showing how uninterested developers report themselves being in Apple’s next platform, or how terribly worried customers are about not having Flash, or whatever other synthetic results the fact-factory was paid to deliver are simply increasingly and obviously going to be seen as an ineffectual waste of marketing resources. Dead.

Flash and Silverlight and JavaFX. What if Apple created a significant new category of computing devices and connected it to its installed base of 70 million mobile devices, and none of it ran Flash nor Silverlight nor JavaFX? Why would anyone bother to learn that stuff? To deprive Android of having any native apps? To keep performance from rocketing out of control? To expand the required development efforts and QA by orders of magnitude, with no commercial payoff? Dead.

Office. Wait, how does the iPad kill Office? Well, much as the revitalized Mac OS X first proved that, even post-2000, it was possible to create and maintain a software platform mostly independent from Microsoft, and as iPhone established that Apple could successfully introduce a major new platform not based on Windows and Intel chips and turn it into a an important force in mobile software, the iPad is now merging those realities toward Office in a threatening way. Microsoft struggled to launch Vista and it failed to keep WiMo going, but it still seems to be full steam ahead for its Office monopoly. But no, there’s no hint of a multitouch version of Office similar to Apple’s new $10 iWork apps. Apple has beat Microsoft to market again, before its rival even realized it was in trouble of losing anything. Microsoft’s comical Pocket and Mobile versions of Office are embarrassing, and the company hasn’t demonstrated any ability to copy the iPhone or the iPod touch successfully, so what hope is there for a Microsoft tablet or a mobile-savvy port of its currently very PC-centric Office suite? Microsoft doesn’t even have any financial motivation to port Office to the iPad, given the$10 per app threshold Apple set. Dead.

Windows Media Center, set top boxes, Tivo. Microsoft kept flogging the idea of having a command center for recorded TV sitting on your family PC that you can push to your Xbox 360 to watch on your TV. Uptake has been weak enough to keep it free bundleware. But who’d want that when they’re already using iTunes, have iPods and iPhones, and can watch live streaming content or their own library of stuff or movies or episodic TV they can buy on demand, from anywhere? Sony’s trying to push the PS3 as a hub for content, and Tivo has been hemorrhaging cash trying to maintain enough subscribers in competition with the cable company’s own boxes. Apple’s the only company with the mobile part figured out, with an anywhere download store, and brilliant ease of use. There’s a lot of living room stuff that’s ending up… dead.

Idle moments. Remember when you used to sit in the park, lost in your lover’s eyes? Now you’re both busy checking messages on your iPhone. Just wait until you get an iPad and you can lock the screen so it won’t flip annoyingly as you try to lie in bed, half awake reading the latest headlines. Now you’ll have a fixed, big screen display giving you bleary-eyed access to all the information that used to stay attached to your desktop computer. The times you spent doing nothing are all now dead.

Chrome OS. Oh noes! Yes, if you thought Google had another year to complete its tablet strategy, you were wrong. By the time the first beta of its HTML-with-Flash only platform ships, the iPad will have a strong installed base and there’ll have been months of iPad adoration in play. How does a simplistic yet expensive web-tablet compare with a sophisticated iPad platform with real media playback (even Android’s fake iPod module is atrocious), real games (not just Farmville), and a vast collection of native software that nobody will have any financial motivation to port to generic ad-supported web pages or Flash apps just to address the slim potential for Google to sell tablets better than it’s been selling smartphones? It’s not here yet, but its going to arrive… dead.

Android. Oh dear, now you’re really going out on a limb. Sure, Android will stick around just like Creative still makes MP3 players and just like AOL is still a going concern, but it will increasingly fail to matter because nothing is holding it up. Apple has three anchors for the iPhone OS, each holding down very different markets and audiences: the iPhone, iPod touch and iPad. They’re suspending the platform like a big tent in the App Store. Android has one trick, and its a mess. The phone hardware wasn’t designed right, the OS has architectural problems, and the app model presents major security issues. All customers care about is what it can do. But Android can’t play sophisticated games, nor is anyone buying enough apps to turn that situation around. Further, Google’s tablet strategy is splintered on Chrome OS. Secretly, that’s because Google doesn’t believe in the future of the Android platform, at least not in its current incarnation as a modified Java VM. The company hopes to migrate its users to HTML apps across the board, so it doesn’t even care that Android Market is losing the battle against the Cocoa Touch App Store. That’s a few reasons why its soon going to be… dead.

Prospects for Windows Phone 7. In 2006, Microsoft unveiled the Zune, thinking it has soundly beat Apple’s 2005 iPod in a number of areas. Then just months later, Apple dropped the iPhone. This time around, Microsoft is striving to achieve a measure of parity with 2008’s iPhone 2.0. The problem this time is that Apple has iPhone 4.0, the fourth generation iPhone and iPod touch, and iPad. How is WP7 going to look relevant or interesting? Dead.

In-flight entertainment systems. Remember the luxury that seat back video screens used to suggest? These days, the early ones look archaic; smaller than an iPod touch. Even the more modern ones are clumsy and look terrible and limit your viewing angles and are likely to not work right. If it does happen to be working, the interface is ridiculous, the buttons barely function, and the content plays at weird times or demands that you pay stupidly high fees just to watch a movie. The iPad is perfect for using in the confines of a plane. It doesn’t need the space of a laptop and works a lot longer. It has a much larger display than a netbook, and its more fun to watch than a iPod or iPhone. Why fool around with some generic junk that may or may not be installed or working when you can ignore that and just relax? Seat backs: dead.

Google’s ad monopoly. With all the revenues it collects from its monopoly, it throws around money on acquisitions and often failed projects. No, not Microsoft in the PC world, it’s Google on the web. Google seems to have earned its position, but the reality is that Google got its lock on the market even more heinously than Microsoft. The company owes its entire existence to stealing the core business of Overture, something that’s no secret but also rarely mentioned these days. After Yahoo acquired Overture, Google paid Yahoo millions in stock to settle the matter, which not only kept Yahoo around as an inconsequential figurehead in search, but also allowed its incompetent management the largess to squander Overture until its talent all ran off to Google and Microsoft. Also like Microsoft, Google ripped off its former partner Apple in hopes of stealing what Apple had invented. But this time around, Apple is playing offensively by moving into the ad market itself. It plans to launch its own ad network and integrate it right into the Cocoa Touch tools, making it that much harder for Google to sell mobile ads (which are currently pretty dysfunctional anyway), the whole reason it got started with Android. If Google is just stuck servicing Android, a group of freetards who refuse to pay for things, who will want to advertise there? Dead.

  • somefagfromg

    Let’s stay realistic here.

    [My use of hyperbole with the word “kill” means ‘suck the life out of,’ not ‘efface from the planet’ -Dan]

    DVDs: Definitely no. People said the SAME thing about DVDs. You can’t rent an iTunes download, or insert it on one of millions of DVD players on large screen TVs nationwide without adapters and such, and no special features…no physical, tangible object (part of the resistance behind eReaders)

    [Yes, having a 5″ circle of plastic comes in real freaking handy when you want to play something on a airplane, doesn’t it? Clearly, plastic circles are and will be, the only way we ever distribute video, just as society has staunchly preferred the CD to MP3s. Err, I guess you’re wrong on that.]

    eReaders: I suggest you try one in person, in an environment such as the great outdoors. E-Ink technology is challenged- the refresh rate, lack of color, and price- but all are improving. Assuming prices will remain stagnant is silly. Different device (reading books).

    [Yeah, everyone wants to pay $300 for single purpose devices that look kind of paper like, but are just as just as useless at presenting video and interactivity as dead trees. ]

    Stacks of paper in office meetings: Stacks of papers don’t go dead, don’t break if you drop them, etc… this is silly too.

    [But they cost lots of money. Note that the context I provided was about creating mountains of papers for meetings, which can much more efficiently be done via digital documents. The paperless office is probably a ways off, but paper copies have slowly been increasing with email and PDF.]

    Textbooks: Textbook publishers are insane. I’d LIKE to carry around the device, but when my $120 textbook is $110 in an eReader edition I can’t resell, and can’t use if my device is not charged/broken, and can’t read outside on a beautiful sunny day on campus…

    [The reason textbook publishers can be insane is that there’s little competition. Few can afford to publish a bunch of paper books and hope they’ll sell. But lots of people can create digital textbooks, and the ability to consume them from iPad means that competition will now flourish.

    If you’re still under the impression that iPad isn’t readable in bright sunlight, go outside and try one, and stop spreading misinformation. There’s no visibility problem in bright sunlight. It’s not OLED.]

    Netbooks: It’ll probably reduce the marketshare somewhat. “Killing” in that sense, maybe. However, they still make better computers than the iPad- for some of the media consuming crowd, the iPad will be the better choice. However, don’t expect netbooks to go away.

    [As another reader pointed out, what iPad will really kill is Microsoft’s ability to jack up the price of netbooks, as it hoped to do with Windows 7. nobody is making money on netbooks, not PC makers, not Microsoft. By setting a $500 price ceiling on the category, Apple will make sure netbook makers can only go out of business selling cheap hardware that can’t do anything but play Flash crap, slowly.]

    PSP/DS: Most of the games I’ve seen on the iPodhave significantly less re-playability, and the touchscreens are awkward. Additionally, you can throw a DS from a 2nd story building to the ground and it’ll work. These two devices also fit into, say, a pants pocket…

    [The iPod touch/iPhone already killed the PSP. The DS is dead ended, with Nintendo scrambling to throw out the XL and announce the 3D. Yawn. You can whine about not begin able to get an iPad into your pocket, but do you think you look cool with a DS in your pocket? And all they do is play games. Single use stuff is dead. ]

    Brochures: For the reasons I listed in the office paper section, nope. It’s a nice utopia where everyone has a tablet device. We’re quite a few years away from that.

    Single-purpose industrial gadgets: No accessory approval required, ability to switch manufacturers if a new part of a series becomes incompatible, open development, hardware support…again, this is idealized.

    [Can’t respond to that because you didn’t really articulate anything.]

    Other tablet-ish stuff: Unless someone can come up with a replacement that kicks ass- and I mean serious amounts -yes. Tablet marketshare will suffer. I don’t have much confidence that the HP Slate will “kill” the iPad.

    The credibility of haters: This is borderline trolling, in my opinion (take it as you will). Dvorak is a fucking career troll himself though. Still, some pundits predicted Apple TV was going to be in every American home. Very marginal device today.

    [Who predicted Apple TV was going to be in every home? I think you just made that up.]

    Flash and Silverlight and JavaFX: Flash will hit reduced marketshare- this is good, it is a bloated pig. Silverlight never took off, although it excels in certain applications. JavaFX was always pretty marginal.

    Office: This is laughable. Office is fully featured, and most people have displays larger than 9.6″. Additionally, there’s no compatibility with a ton of proprietary shit MS slipped in the DOC/DOCX specs. This is a pipe dream.

    [No, it means a lot of new users and young people will experience computing where Office isn’t the standard, and isn’t even around. Any they’ll do fine without it. That’s a major problem for Microsoft’s third monopoly. Obviously is isn’t going to dry up and blow away, but plenty of people will have no reason to pay for Office that now do (or otherwise would have).]

    Windows Media Center, set top boxes, Tivo: WMC always had its interest. Set top boxes, people LIKE changing the channel and finding new stuff to watch – Roku, Apple TV, et. al didn’t change this. Tivo has been in trouble for a while too (forgetting the brand, DVRs are booming), but DVRs can be shared among the family and have a remote friendly interface on 40″+ screens.

    Idle moments: Yes, funny description. However, the iPad’s size makes it impractical for “On the go” use where I wouldn’t have a laptop in standby anyways.

    Chrome OS/Android: The devices I described above won’t be dead, so they won’t die either. Open architecture too.

    WinMo7: MS got iPhone envy and is always behind on feature development. We’ll see how this goes, but WinMo has been terrible for years.

    In-flight entertainment: Nothing to hold, nothing to charge, satellite TV…movies not preloaded on device. I doubt it.

    [They have WiFi on planes these days. ]

    Google’s ad monopoly: I doubt it. iPad-like devices still won’t make up the majority of searches. Apple could make money but they’ll hardly kill Google.

    [Majority of searches on the desktop, but not mobile. Despite all the hype, Android only sees 9% of smartphone traffic, while Apple has 24% of unit sales and 50% of all mobile web traffic. If Google loses access to that, it loses the mobile search/ads market. ]

  • clovischan

    Oh yeah, the Ipad is going to be a fantastic device for gaming!

    http://kotaku.com/5510976/how-to-orient-yourself-for-optimal-ipad-gaming/gallery/

    Anyone who seriously believes that the Ipad will be able to function as a legitimate portable video game system either has some screws loose or knows nothing about the handheld market. I hope that nobody here is going to make the mistake of purchasing an Ipad while carrying such delusions.

    [That’s kind of a wildly ignorant thing to say, given that all those big video game developers are investing in iPad games. Surely they understand the industry better than some anonymous schmuck with a hotmail account. – Dan]

  • Prometheus

    To be quite honest, I am very excited for the iPad, especially as a handheld gaming platform. I believe it will have many innovative games, potentially matching the extensive PS3 game library.

  • clovischan

    Well, Dan, the problem with your statement there is that….well, no, none of the big video game developers really care about the Ipad. Nintendo, Konami, and Capcom certainly don’t, and neither do smaller niche studios like NIS or Atlus. In addition, the problem the Ipad faces is two fold:

    1. Western game developers have always always ALWAYS largely avoided the handheld market. This does not seem likely to change, except for more casual titles such as Farmville being ported around.

    2. Japanese developers are not going to jump ship from Japanese systems to develop for a western handheld. Have you looked at how poorly the 360 does in Japan? Developers will want to pick the safe option, which is stick with Nintendo and Sony.

    And lastly,
    >implying I use this account as anything but signing up for stuff :3

    [Are you for real? Konami started shipping iPhone games last fall: DDR, Silent Hill, MGSolid, Frogger. Capcom makes Resident Evil titles, Street Fighter, and a variety of other titles for iPhone. Nintendo doesn’t make games for anyone but Nintendo, so you could use that same logic against the Xbox and PSP/PS3, but it would be just as ridiculous.

    Who else? Electronic Arts, Sega, Gameloft, … go to iTunes and look around you tit. Also, nothing is more puke inducing that Americans explaining how little the Japanese are interested in the iPhone. It’s wildly popular there. – Dan ]

  • BraveWarrior123

    Great article Dan especially the ending and if I may I would like to reply to “clovischan”.

    In reference to your comment ” has some screws loose or knows nothing about the handheld market” I think that the only people with “screws loose” are the ones who dont realise the power of smaller games, they may not cost as much to make or take as long to develop, but games like Farmville and various App Store games have proven that devices like the iPad are the way forward for gamers.

  • jimmyhill

    I don’t think you realize what the iPad is. It’s just a big iPod touch.

    First, who wants to pay 300 dollars for a system that barely out does the PSP? Second there tons of iTouch apps released every day, majority of which are absolute shit and most of the quality ones, games included are more than $5.

    The iPad is an easy way to get rich by being a dev because of the suckers like you out there buying everything up. But honestly, it’s not that big of a deal, but you’re entire post screams fanboy. Enjoy toucharcade.

    [Thanks for all the common sense, anonymous Hotmail user. Clearly Apple is just bamboozling the public into buying $4 games that are really just Fart Apps in disguise, when what they really want is a bunch of single purpose devices like the PSP, which allow you to pay $40 for games. When will this injustice end? And where is Microsoft’s handheld game machine, the Gizmodo? Oh yeah, it went nowhere, just like your rambling post. – Dan]

  • clovischan

    True, BraveWarrior; smaller games can be quite appealing. However, the appeal of games like Farmville and other such titles is that you already have a platform to play them on; nobody purchases a system TO play the titles on. It seems that Apple is expecting people to pay $500 for the ability to play games they already could find and play on their Iphones or Macbook. Heck, Cave Story was my favorite game I had on my Mac, so I’m not saying that the library of titles available to it will be barren…I’m saying it has no real draws going in. Who will buy it with gaming in mind? Rather, you’ll just happen to buy a few games for it after you purchase it.

  • antsy

    [quote] Remember when you used to sit in the park, lost in your lover’s eyes? Now you’re both busy checking messages on your iPhone[/quote]

    This strikes me as strange, because normally getting lost in the eyes of a lover is seen as a sign of affection and a valid way of spending time

    However, you seem to imply that the ipad will take up your life so much, you do not even have time for that. Isn’t this dangerous?

    [Yes, alert the Windows Enthusiast FUD patrol, they probably don’t have a sense of humor either. Why does everyone with a Hotmail or Live address have to be so painfully stupid? – Dan]

  • BraveWarrior123

    “clovischan”, thank you for your reply.

    In reference to you suggesting that gamers wont buy an iPad to solely play games, I think this is quite incorrect.
    The screen size of the iPad is much superior to say an iTouch or an iPhone, and so is the image quality. Real gamers will upgrade to an iPad solely for gaming because they want the optimum experience, and the iPad provides this.

    The Apple App store also has an extensive amount of games for both the casual gamer, such as me, im a father of two and when my kids arent badgering me for something my wife is!!!!!!! But after all that I do have some time to myself, and I like to sit and relax while playing something such as Peggle, I feel the Peggle experience would be much better on an iPad due to the screen size and image quality.

    Games on the Apple store are also VERY small in size and available instantly, being able to look at a game and say “I want that, lets go for it”, or should I say “Dad, Dad, I want that one!!”, ha ha ha ha ha and almost instantly play it is an amazing experience.

    And im sorry but ive never heard of “Cave Story”, but I must look into it, is it some sort of visual novel?

  • clovischan

    Well, BW, there’s not much else I can say; I’ll just have to respectfully disagree with you on this, but I am happy that you and your family are able to have an enjoyable gaming experience.

    As for Cave Story, it’s a rather interesting game that was developed by a single Japanese man that gained a lot of popularity; it’s available for free on PC (and Mac!), but it became so popular that a remastered Wii title was released just a few weeks ago; I’d recommend googling it, because it’s a very family friendly game that you may want to check out.

  • antsy

    I do not believe the Ipad can kill the nintendo DS.

    Nintendo has a long standing reputation that cannot be easily broken, and franchises as Mario, Pokemon, Legend of Zelda, Brain Training will continiue to sell

    Furthermore, the nintendo DS is easier to transport and quite a bit sturdier (the DS can survive falls from stairs, etc. things that would break the Ipad) and nintendo has gone through an intensive marketing process to make their games atractive to all kinds of people. (again example Brain Training).

    Also the majority of games on the nintendo DS is in the 15-20 dollar price class and offer most at least 10 hours of gameplay, while, as my experience with Apple Store games proves me, these offer mostly 1-2 hour gameplay for the 5 dollar games.

    I honestly cannot see the Ipad overtaking the nintendo DS as a handheld gaming system, especially not now that the next version of the nintendo DS will be able to produce 3d images.

    [Does the 3DSi come out before the iPhone turns 4? Before next year? Because that’s a lot of App Store games away given how many Apple is selling. And while Nintendo has a pretty good track record, it did fumble the Super Nintendo launch, giving Sony its PlayStation franchise, and then managed to completely fail with the Game Cube, despite all of its familiar franchises. And while the Wii was fun while it lasted, it’s looking pretty long in the tooth at this point. The DS is pretty tired too. I don’t think people primarily buy games machines that can withstand falls. They buy games that are fun to play. – Dan ]

  • BraveWarrior123

    “clovischan”, I think we can agree to disagree! ha ha ha ha ha

    And thank you for the recommendation for “Cave Story”, I had a look at it but unfortunately it does not seem like my type of game, I do like my visuals and in my opinion the style of this game isnt all that, as for the kids, theyre in bed right now, so ill have to get back to you on that one, ha ha ha ha ha!

    I also had a read of the plot, and it seems as though the character has awoken and has amnesia of sorts, that sounds about as farfetched as someone roleplaying two women on a spaceship using avatars on a videogame imageboard, ha ha ha ha ha! Eh…

  • clovischan

    Oh BraveWarrior, you’re just too much <3

    Oh, and Dan….umm….you might want to have another look at the 'Microsoft' Gizmondo…you may be a little confused on something…

  • clovischan

    Oooops! Forgot my link; how silly of me:

    http://www.crunchgear.com/2009/02/26/iphone-not-selling-well-in-japan-now-available-for-free/

    [I have reported over and over about the sensationalist misinformation about Japanese “hate” for the iPhone, which was based on completely BS reporting by people who knew nothing and just made crap up (Like Wired). The reality is that iPhone is the top selling phone in Japan, and the iPod touch is also very popular. Look at Apple’s sales reports. – Dan]

  • Yurt

    The Itouch and Iphone haven’t left so much as a dent in DS and PSP sales. What makes you think the Ipad, which costs twice as much as the Itouch, will? Ipad will never compete with handheld systems devoted to gaming. You know why? Because kids make up a massive part of the handheld gaming market, the DS in particular. No parent, no parent, is going to drop five hundred bucks on an Ipad for their kid. Hell, I doubt kids are even interested in the Ipad to begin with.

    Cool sensationalist article, though. Though, a tip: your fanboyism for Apple is embarrassing. Maybe try keeping that to yourself in the future.

    [You’re entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts. For starters, check out the demographics of iPod touch users. The majority are under 25, and the largest chunk is under 18. iPod touch was the same price as iPad in 2008. Plenty of parents were dropping money on their kids.

    It doesn’t really matter if they buy a iPod touch or iPad though, either way it erases interest in dedicated game devices that only play games.

    Flurry iPhone OS stats in gaming

    Call me names all you want, but you’re just wrong across the board, because of facts, not because I don’t like your opinions. -Dan]

  • antsy

    Does the 3DSi come out before the iPhone turns 4? Before next year? Because that’s a lot of App Store games away given how many Apple is selling. And while Nintendo has a pretty good track record, it did fumble the Super Nintendo launch, giving Sony its PlayStation franchise, and then managed to completely fail with the Game Cube, despite all of its familiar franchises. And while the Wii was fun while it lasted, it’s looking pretty long in the tooth at this point. The DS is pretty tired too. I don’t think people primarily buy games machines that can withstand falls. They buy games that are fun to play. – Dan

    The 3DSi will most likely come out end this year.

    The Snes eventually became the most popular system around that time, and the gamecube never died, as you implied would happen to the DS. And it wasn’t a complete fail, that is like saying Macintosh is a complete fail because Microsoft sells 8 times as much.

    [No, it was Nintendo going from a perennial first position in consoles to being dog last next to the Xbox as the PS2 took over. Nothing like the Mac at all. The GC sold so badly that nobody made games for it.]

    The DS is tired, but the 3DSi is comming very soon and will reïnvigorate the franchise

    Also I think you underestimate several franchises. The pokemon main games have sold over 10 million copies per game (that is 20 million copies per generation) each. Something which no game in the applestore comes close to. And mario is by this moment more known then Micky Mouse

    Also, the Ipad is fragile, this meens that parents will be less likely to buy a 500 dollar gaming device (children do not need the flexibility the Ipad has, they often have the family PC they use) that breaks easily (kids will be kids) then a 100 dollar gaming device that hardly breaks.

    Furthermore, the Ipad is not marketed as a primary games system, which will cause a lot of people to go for more traditional gaming systems.

    And als this little calculation: A DS (100 dollar) +20 games (20 dollar each)= 1 Ipad without games

    [At which point you have a worthless DS (what, you picked it up used?) and a iPad. Guess which your kids want? And how many free DS games are there?]

    add to this that most games on the DS have much longer gameplay then games in the applestore

    Also the Ipad can never replace the Wii. The Wii is cheaper, has games that look better, play longer and has motion controll while having easy acces to multiplayer and has a massive library of cheap games available to it (old nes and snes games, a huge game library available for as little as 5 dollar)

    Furthermore, not all Ipads will be sold as gaming systems, in fact the greater majority is not sold as a gaming system. Because if that were true, then every laptop sold is also a gaming system.

    All laptops have easy acces to 100.000’s of completely free flash and java games, which the ipad will not have acces to due to limitations on that part

    [Show me five Java or Flash games that aren’t just ridiculous crap. You can’t. You like to titter about Fart Apps, but that’s all there is on lowest common denominator platforms.]

    I know that you like the Ipad, and I will not say it is a bad device, however to claim it will bring Nintendo out of the market, while they have dominated that market for the past 30 years (handheld market) is…well rather optimistic on your part.

    [Because it would be difficult to imagine that the company that took away Sony’s Walkman franchise, which it held for more than twenty years, could also dethrone Nintendo at gaming? After Nintendo failed to do anything interesting with the DS for years and hasn’t learned any new tricks with mobiles or general computing/web browsing devices or music and media… why exactly is Nintendo so untouchable in your mind?

    You’re so over the place with your random trolling that I can’t even respond to this stuff. – Dan]

  • clovischan

    To build on the comment above mine, I noticed something strange about Dan’s opening post:

    >Oh Dan, you’re so controversial. Netbooks are an amazingly cheap way to get low powered, junky hardware that can even run Linux if anyone cared to. You can type into a word processor, play moron-level Flash weblet games, and even surf the web.

    Ummmm….couldn’t you use that to describe the iPad? All you’re doing is demonizing Netbooks by bashing all their features. The iPad isn’t capable of doing anything a Netbook can’t, especially considering the lack of USB support. This is also a devastating blow to the game library, because touch control is largely unresponsive. Have you tried playing Mega Man, Earthworm Jim….heck, any sort of schmup on the iPhone? It’s incredibly difficult without a traditional control scheme. On top of this, the App store is utterly FLOODED with cheap, cheap flash games, many of which you could easily play on something as simple as a Netbook.

    Really, it seems like you’re championing the ipad so hard, you end up making it look a little wimpy. A device like this should be able to stand on it’s own merits, not rely on a blogger to shout about how it’ll destroy the competition.

    [I know you Hotmail users have a lot of time on your hands, but I’m a little tired of your incessant trolling.

    No, iPad isn’t flimsy low powered hardware. There’s a big difference between running iPhone OS on ARM and running Windows 7 on an Atom. And what exactly do you do on your netbook “with USB support”?

    There may be junk games in the App STore, but that’s not all there is, and its designed to filter high quality stuff to the top. If it weren’t good, it wouldn’t be selling. Troll, troll, troll – Dan]

  • antsy

    This is a small post, however I would like to have the specifications of the graph you posted

    This is just out of friendly interest and because at times, graphs display something entirely different then what is actually happening. I would like to study this so that in the rare case it does infact turn out different this will not be used against you by people of ill intent

    [It’s a Flurry report, go find it. It’s at the top of their site. – Dan]

  • antsy

    #web browsing devices or music and media… #

    The nintendo DS has a web browser, is capable of being transformed into a music player

    The Wii has a very good synergy with SD cards. These are very commonly used in various digital cameras. Also It has many free online functions and even more you have to pay a small ammount for (same as with Apple Store)

    #Show me five Java or Flash games that aren’t just ridiculous crap. You can’t. You like to titter about Fart Apps, but that’s all there is on lowest common denominator platforms.#

    yet the games in Apple Store are made folling the same process as those flashgames.

    As for games that are not shit and free? While offcourse that is subjective there are many games that obviously show the developper has done its work. Including imho, Sonny games, Elements the game, bloons tower defence, gemcraft (various iterations), Super Stacker, Pandemic 1 and 2 and various other games

    I’m sorry but you left most of my points unanswered and the others are fairly easy to refute or are simply not based in reality (such as saying the nintendo ds has no web browser or music ap)

    #The GC sold so badly that nobody made games for it.#

    The game Metroid Prime is a Gamecube game and was vote game of the year by the most prominent gaming magazines. Furthermore I direct you to wikipedia or google for a list of games that appeared on the gamecube

    #And how many free DS games are there#
    If the Ipad has no flash or Java that meens its ammount of free games is just as trivial to those of the Ds compared the the millions (no exageration) of free games available on the internet

  • clovischan

    Ummm….Dan, nowhere did I say that I owned a Netbook. I DID use the USB support on my old macbook very often, though. External hard drives and gamepads are pretty nice things to have.

    I’m a little worried here; you seem to be taking all this ipad criticism very personally. Can I ask you a question? Do you feel the iPad has any flaws? Or do you seriously think it’s perfect? It’s possible to dislike a product but still feel it has good points; likewise, the opposite is true. Personally, I just don’t feel the ipad is for me, but I think it does do some stuff….well enough. You seem to be labeling any criticism as trolling, though, and that’s somewhat worrying.

    So, again: Do you feel the iPad has any flaws? Specifically, do you think the lack of USB support is a good thing? Because that’s kind of the deal breaker for me.

    [When you go on and on about a “lack of USB support,” is it because you don’t realize it has a USB connection (and a camera connection kit for importing photos), or because you’d prefer several USB ports to being able to use Bluetooth or WiFi? What do you think you’d be doing with USB ports on the iPad, charging your iPhone? Plugging in a mic? Connecting a keyboard?

    Seriously, you nutters get on a tear about some mistaken position and go absolutely bonkers about nothing – Dan ]

  • Archon

    You seem to be somewhat misinformed in your idea that the iPad will “kill” the Nintendo DS and/or the Sony PSP.

    First off, as has been stated by several others, the games for the iPad are marketed at regular people, not actual gamers. By gamers, I refer to people who invest a lot of time and money into gaming as a hobby. Gamers are not people who occasionally play a game for 5 minutes while they’re waiting for a bus. The games on the iPad/iPod touch are being marketed to everyone. The games on the PSP and the DS however, are being marketed to gamers. I’m not saying that games on the iPad can’t be fun, they just lack depth that is offered by games on the PSP and DS. Before you start ranting about single use devices, when it comes to games, quality over quantity. If I’m buying something to play video games with, the first thing I look at is how many quality games it has, not at its multimedia features.

    [That might well be the case, but it won’t matter if the majority of the market goes to devices that do everything AND play good games. Previous attempts to do this failed (such as Nokia’s NGage) but Apple’s strategy is clearly working. And Nintendo is clearly scrambling (without a strategy for doing anything else but games) while Sony has never done well (despite having nice hardware, albeit locked up and limited). So that’s why I’ve been writing for YEARS that this shift is in play. And it is increasingly apparent that it is happening. – Dan]

    You also mention price, but you only talk about the game’s price. As I said, the DS and PSP games tend to be of higher quality, depth, and length than iPad games, so the higher price isn’t ridiculous. What is ridiculous is that you failed to compare the prices of the iPad to the DS and PSP, which is incredibly biased. The fact is, you could buy a DS or PSP with several games for the price of an iPad with no games.

    [The problem is, there aren’t that many people choosing between a DS or PSP and an iPod/iPad/iPhone. People get Apple gear to do various things, and end up with a game player too. They won’t need a separate games device at any price.]

    That’s a cool chart you posted by the way. Maybe if you weren’t so biased you could have posted a chart with international sales data, and not just the U.S. Last I checked, the U.S. wasn’t the entire world market, nor was it a good indicator of it. The iPad will never be able to “kill” the DS or PSP because it will never be able to infiltrate the Japanese market.

    [What I write is based on what I think IS, not what I wished were the case (most of the time at least). So I’m not distracted by advocating the video game console I personally like, or some other affinity to old things. I write about what I think is happening, based on the information sources that are available. The Flurry report is the only data I’ve seen on new developer starts and the size of the DS/PSP/iPhone OS markets. If you have other data, post it, but don’t squeal like a stuck hog because you don’t like mine, and don’t attribute malicious motives just because I proved your emotionalist opinion wrong with facts.]

    Last, you keep saying that several big developers are making games for the iPad, yet you fail to mention any. I’m not sure you even know the difference between a developer and a publisher.

    [Why do you think I need to write an extensive Wikipedia entry about the major developers and development houses writing for the iPhone OS when its common knowledge? This isn’t a secret. And in another post by another troll (insisting that Capcom and Konami would never make iPhone video games) I did list some major publishers, including Capcom and Konami and EA and Sega and there’s a lot more (and what a dick you are for writing what you did, seriously, you don’t need to be an asshat just to disagree with me)]

    But speaking of big developers, let’s talk about Nintendo. Nintendo has had a vice grip on this market for the past 20 years, and over those 20 years they’ve built up game franchises such as Pokemon, Metroid, Mario and Zelda.

    [Well they failed big time with the GameCube. So the last 20 years have not been without failure nor a vice grip. The PS2 ruled long and hard. And Nintendo is now largely confined to the “casual gaming” market targeting kids and older people, outside of the “serious gamers” who prefer the PS3/360/PC Gaming. So your entire argument bites itself in the tail here. Maybe you want to tear it all down and start over. ]

    These games will always sell, and the iPad will never have them. Hell, Pokemon alone is more than enough to keep the DS afloat. Nintendo has fanboys who are even more rabid than you are; the iPad won’t have any effect on Nintendo’s handheld profits. Don’t try to bring up the chart you posted; percent of market revenue is not the same as total revenue. Now the PSP? That’s a different story. It’s not as strong here as it is in other markets but if anyone’s going to blow it out of the water it will be Nintendo, not Apple.

    [Nintendo appears to have helped keep the PSP from every getting very popular (part of the credit goes to Sony too), but the iPhone OS is the last blow, and that’s why Sony did this last ditch effort to move games from its UMD plastic disc strategy to one that aped the App Store, too little too late. Clearly, Sony thinks there was a major threat coming from Apple’s iPhone OS platform, even if you stand there screaming that it’s not and cannot be (read some gamer trade rags, everyone knows this). ]

    This was by far your most egregious claim, but it wasn’t the only bad one. However, I’m not going to even touch the rest of this article, it’s not worth the time. It’s obvious that if Apple released the iRock you would still hail it as the most revolutionary invention in human history.

    [When people tear into me as if they are grandiose experts in a subject and are going to straighten me out, and then actually deliver a feeble and completely contradictory pile of crap as their own position, and then say they don’t have enough time to point out all the other errors I make, I don’t lose a lot of sleep over it. – Dan]

  • danpoarch

    Bummer. I was following the political talk but the right wingers ran away with their tale between their legs. Tail, I mean tail. I miss smart Republicans. And I miss Dems that are dedicated to action. Government is a business much bigger than anyone outside the beltway can comprehend. Any dumbass that thinks the Republicans are doing anything but pandering to Tea Partiers to stay alive are damn fools. The R’s blow as much cash as the Dems. Look, when you get elected and you arrive in Washington your soul dies and you vote the party line to stay alive. And both parties, as in the staffers on the Hill, are chock full of idiots. Oh, and the Tea Party is what happens when the comfort of living in the first world gets to be a burden. All this 24/7 NASCAR and FoxNews can really wear a tough hard-workin’ guy down. Man, those spoiled little assholes need to get back to work.

    Where was I?

    Let’s see, free market philosophy proven by cigarettes in WWII and Russia? Aren’t those cases of extreme regulation spawning improvised markets of necessity, so once again, constraints build the marketplace. Much like the most successful creative projects (iPad) require focus, editing and sacrifice. As in, working firmly within the box to maximize utilization of said box. Man if we taught art
    & design seriously in public schools we’d make better business people.

    No, that’s not what I wanted to say… Oh wait…

    Dan, there’s something that, unless I missed something above, no one has mentioned yet. The iPad will kill Windows. Microsoft will struggle to build a better finger, but the dyke will break much quicker than they know. I know it might sound far fetched, but ask a lifer at IBM how quickly they stopped making typewriters.

    Think of it this way, Windows users won’t pay more than $500-$700 for a computer. All they do on it is email, browse the web, play games, download music, and perhaps do some work in Office. The iPad does all of these things for the same price.

    Yes, it lacks the frame-rate for gaming, but really, is frame rate something so important or is it really just pissing match fodder.

    No, Numbers is not Excel, but really, most complicated spreadsheet activities are better suited for either a modern analysis app or a database app. So yes, there will be those that cling to their Dell, but I’ll bet they also own an iPad. Same for pages.

    I’m really trying to be fair but I can’t think of anything else that Windows can do that can’t easily be done on an iPad. I realize that anything computationally challenging will stay on desktops, but 90% of what is done on desktops can be done on an iPad or similar.

    I’m painting with a broad brush, I realize this, but it’s not just the iPad that will kill Windows, it’s the decentralized computing experience that puts a chip, a pipe and a screen where you need it, in your hands. Microsoft DOES NOT have a strategy to combat this.

    Windows 2012, codenamed: Dirt Nap.

    Fuck Windows.

  • somefagfromg

    Ah, a reasonable discussion! With the person that wrote the article, no less! Very fair, Mr. Dilger.

    Let’s go counterpoints, no?

    >[My use of hyperbole with the word “kill” means ‘suck the life out of,’ not ‘efface from the planet’ -Dan]
    Fair enough. I’ll take that.

    >[Yes, having a 5″ circle of plastic comes in real freaking handy when you want to play something on a airplane, doesn’t it?]
    Well, many people have laptops already. Most of them fit on tray tables. I would argue that the iPad could be more ergonomic in some situations. However, people have substantial collections in DVD and aren’t willing to rebuy every movie.

    I could see a big market for iPad rentals, though. VERY convenient. Rent a movie at the airport, enjoy it on the flight. I will concede that some aspects are exciting.

    I would also like to note that I misstated earlier; iTunes DOES have rentals.

    >[Clearly, plastic circles are and will be, the only way we ever distribute video]
    I never said that. They are by and large the preferred way. Current restrictions on bandwidth in the US, compatibility issues, convenience, ease of sharing, etc. have made movie rentals less appealing

    >[just as society has staunchly preferred the CD to MP3s.]
    The MP3 was unencumbered. It has some patent issues, but had very reasonable file sizes for the quality tradeoff. And it played on almost everything. It never had DRM.

    Compared to movies, a field where everything comes digitally wrapped and only plays on certain devices…you can’t leave Apple’s walled garden with FairPlay on apps, games (guess they’re apps, but still an important example), movies, etc… you can buy a DVD player from any manufacturer and have your DVD play.

    Perhaps Apple will be able to use their influence to get DRM-Free movies, like they did with music (it seems that the movie industry is more resistant to change than the music industry). Or a common DRM system that works with multiple manufacturers.

    >[Err, I guess you’re wrong on that.]
    I don’t think the snippiness is merited. Nor do I believe that either of our opinions are complete fact that is gospel and will be shouted from the heavens. It’s a debate. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe that my tone was pretty non-personal.

    >[Yeah, everyone wants to pay $300 for single purpose devices that look kind of paper like, but are just as just as useless at presenting video and interactivity as dead trees. ]
    Borders announced a sub-$150 6″ eReader at CES. The price on these is falling. I would expect to see the 6″ ones under $100 within a couple years. The benefits of the display technology, the simplicity of the device, and the fact that they will be cheaper devices to break/lose, will probably continue to market growth. Not to mention battery life in the weeks instead of hours…

    I don’t argue that the iPad has benefits. However, I strongly disagree that the iPad will “kill” the eReader market. Far from it.

    (on paper discussion)
    >[But they cost lots of money. ]
    2 cents a page, color is getting down to ten cents. You can pass the color copy around, and the cost of it getting stepped on or dropped is much less, and they never require batteries. You can mark it up in many ways. Ways that an app developer may not think of.

    Don’t get me wrong, more interactive presentations and less paper have been market trends.

    Replacing paper is difficult. We all wish that we had one clean little device to replace paper. And it’ll happen. Will the iPad kill paper? That I doubt.

    >[Note that the context I provided was about creating mountains of papers for meetings]
    And I’m sure a LOT of people would agree with you. Paper sucks. I can’t manage mounds of paper. I have a document feed scanner because I can’t deal with the paper. However, paper has arguable benefits, which, in the next 5 years (this is cowardly as a prediction, but I’m unlikely to be wrong- nice benefit) will mean paper will continue to dominate. Which means I’m less sure how the iPad specifically will dominate as a device.

    >[which can much more efficiently be done via digital documents.]
    In some ways, but not others. If I’ve missed anything you can think of, or you disagree, I’d like to debate it with you.

    >[The paperless office is probably a ways off, but paper copies have slowly been increasing with email and PDF.]
    We’re 1 and 1 on the mistakes at this point (I said iTunes can’t rent films, you said increasing paper copies- both mistakes. We knew what we meant to say).

    Yes, but it makes the “iPad, the destroyer” monkier less applicable. Technology will replace paper. The iPad as a device? Much less certain.

    >[The reason textbook publishers can be insane is that there’s little competition. (etc.)]
    Never argued. The main point is that the price differential and restrictions (and noability to resell) make eTextbooks unappetizing.

    >[But lots of people can create digital textbooks when the publishing and the ability to consume them from iPad means that competition will now flourish.]
    Despite the more open market for alternative textbooks – which is a plus- the textbook companies offer teachers a ton of perks, software integration (specifically, online testing banks + quizzes), custom books (they say the specific prof made the slides on the printout), etc. mean that the big dogs are going to keep a stronghold on textbooks.

    >[If you’re still under the impression that iPad isn’t readable in bright sunlight, go outside and try one, and stop spreading misinformation. There’s no visibility problem in bright sunlight. It’s not OLED.]
    I’ve seen them. They are much less readable in sunlight (still readable, but to a much lesser degree. The ambient light sensor detects it and puts the display on full throttle, which zaps the battery. I know as an iPod Touch owner. I had an opportunity to see a new iPad owner outside this weekend and the device was much less readable than a traditional text.

    Unlike the OLED of the Zune HD display, it’s not impossible.

    >[As another reader pointed out, what iPad will really kill is Microsoft’s ability to jack up the price of netbooks, as it hoped to do with Windows 7. ]
    Microsoft’s been behind the limiting of netbook specs in order to qualify for the cheap Win 7 Starter licenses that make the devices have any margin at all. These netbooks are all competing on price, so I don’t think MS has had any effort to jack up netbook prices. Of course, if you have any information to the contrary, I’d be very interested to read it- I’m open.

    >[nobody is making money on netbooks, not PC makers, not Microsoft]
    Well, not a LOT. They are lower margin devices. Dell seemed happy with their sales.

    Microsoft makes nothing – the licenses are given away for under $5 to maintain margins (with spec limitations to prevent the use of those licenses on full PCs).

    >By setting a $500 price ceiling on the category
    Considering the sense of “kill” we discussed earlier, yes. The price ceiling for the majority of the market (geeks will always pay extra for thin-and-light) is there now. Most netbooks I see are well under that, though.

    >Apple will make sure netbook makers can only go out of business selling cheap hardware that can’t do anything but play Flash crap, slowly.
    Let’s step back from that. I bought an EEE PC 701- tiny keys, an underclocked celeron, and a very small SSD, $400. The new netbooks have large hard drives, a good chunk of RAM, powerful yet efficient Atom processors, good size screens and keyboards that aren’t chicklet keys, good battery, and they’re half the price. They can do most of what a big PC can. The newer ones are shipping with ION and Tegra chips, which, in combination with the DirectX Video Acceleration in Flash 10.1 (allowing them to play back HD video without stuttering, but without the power consumption of full dedicated graphics), should ensure that there’s a spot for netbooks.

    At the same time, they’ll hurt. People buying cheap media consumption devices have an offering that’s superior in some aspects. However, as a good computer- that still runs a full fledged os, and has a real keyboard- netbooks will have a place. I think that it’ll curb netbook growth, not put them out to the pasture.

    >[The iPod touch/iPhone already killed the PSP]
    Sony’s inability to release good games, inability to keep the firmware locked down (the demographic it attracted was the most tech-savvy), inability to advertise it well, etc. killed the PSP.

    >[The DS is dead ended]
    A five year old platform is reaching the end of its life. This doesn’t strike me as gloom and doom for Nintendo, just a handheld console lifespan.

    >[with Nintendo scrambling to throw out the XL ]
    I didn’t get the point of the XL. I guess they wanted to attract the “non-gamers” that the Wii won over. It strikes me as a misstep. Like the GBA Micro, or the Virtual Boy.

    >[and announce the 3D.]
    I certainly feel Nintendo was pressured into the announcement to make people not worry about the future of Nintendo’s handhelds.

    >[Yawn.]
    Nintendo has made great gaming devices. I felt that the DSi was a distraction from that- the web browser is TERRIBLE, and it’s not a web browsing device. A lot of people laughed at the dual screens/touchscreen of the DS, but it was used in very innovative ways and became highly popular.

    >[You can whine about not begin able to get an iPad into your pocket]
    I am entitled to that, I would hope. Technically, I could play larger games. I have a laptop too. I don’t see much overlap in the middle. The situations in which I’m not carrying my laptop rarely have me carrying around a bag to hold an iPad in. My DS fits comfortably into my pocket when I go…well, wherever. Perhaps I’m myopic.

    >[but do you think you look cool with a DS in your pocket?]
    Most people don’t notice that I have a DS Lite in my pocket until I pull it out. And most people don’t care when I play it, I don’t get many compliments, but I hardly get stares or weird looks. I’m just using an electronic device.

    >[all they do is play games. Single use stuff is dead.]
    Never underestimate the ability of a smaller device to do one thing very well for much cheaper. Keep in mind that Nintendo sells a lot of DSes to minors- who can destroy anything. A 9.7″ glass screen is going to get pulverized. I’ve seen DSes go down stairs with no harm, I’ve found games left outside for over a year that still play. Nintendo knows their niche.

    >[Can’t respond to that because you didn’t really articulate anything.]
    Well, I’ll try to articulate more clearly.

    My university uses a single use device. It’s designed like a price gun. It runs Windows Mobile. And you can scan a barcode or swipe an ID and lookup pretty much any information on any room, person, etc. on campus.

    The multiple forms of input (card, barcode, etc.) and open development (the Uni can improve the software any time, or get updates- I believe Apple has some sort of enterprise distribution process) allows for quick updating. The tech guys tell me they get crazy battery life (large battery integrated into the unit)

    Now, the iPad wouldn’t work in that situation, for a number of reasons. Form factor is totally different. Battery life. Licensing of peripherals. Limited hardware manufacturer (someone making a solution has to get the iPad in Apple). Serviceability is also typically a concern.

    As far as larger examples, where the iPad’s form factor would be comfortable – no ability for pen input (big for the medical field), one hardware manufacturer, attractive target for theft (most of the tablet PCs I see are made purposely clunky in medical fields), no involved Windows Networking, no background apps…the feasibility of redesigning a network around a new device isn’t great. They use tablet PCs at my local medical group for the reasons listed above.

    Mainly, due to the limitations of software and multitasking, I kind of doubt that the iPad is going to swoop in and take everything out. And existing infrastructure.

    If I rambled, let me know. Or missed the whole point.

    >[Who predicted Apple TV was going to be in every home? I think you just made that up.]
    Well, hyperbole. There were critics that predicted that the writing was on the wall for cable in the next couple years and the TV was going to be the next iPod in the segment. Dvorak probably made such a prediction – again, he’s a career troll for page hits. He declared DOCSIS (cable internet) to be “a solution to a problem that doesn’t exist. No one wants cable internet” (paraphrase from memory).

    >[No, it means a lot of new users and young people will experience computing where Office isn’t the standard, and isn’t even around]
    We’ll see. Microsoft’s stranglehold via cheap educational licensing especially has trained a generation of users on Office and Windows.

    >[Any they’ll do fine without it. ]
    Maybe. Maybe not. I question the level of document creation that will occur on iPads versus simple document viewing and minor editing. I don’t think it’ll spur any revolutions, or hurt Office’s marketshare significantly.

    >[That’s a major problem for Microsoft’s third monopoly]
    I disagree. People will still email Microsoft Word/Excel/etc. documents to each other and do a couple edits. There have been alternatives and those alternatives pose more of a threat to Microsoft. Office Live and the new collaboration features in Office 2010 are answers to the bigger threats: Google Docs and other competitors.

    >[Obviously is isn’t going to dry up and blow away]
    Definitely on the same page here. Even if we agreed on how major it was I think we’d still both agree on this. There will be no instance in which every Microsoft Office user gives it up overnight.

    >[but plenty of people will have no reason to pay for Office that now do (or otherwise would have)]
    The iPad is an appliance. I see it as more of a complement to laptops, not a replacement. I think more users would pirate Office than buy an iPad for cheaper office.

    >[They have WiFi on planes these days. ]
    It’s satellite based. Ventrilo (VoIP conferencing) was painful on it, well under a megabit. It’s for web browsing, not downloading movies. Which could be a benefit of the iPad.

    What will be interesting is seeing if Wi-Fi will remain free. The uplink ain’t cheap…

    >[Majority of searches on the desktop, but not mobile. ]
    True. This holds some value for Google. I wonder how many users would take Apple changing the default search engine though, especially if they removed Google as an option. If they didn’t – how many would change back?

    >[Despite all the hype, Android only sees 9% of smartphone traffic]
    We both know it’s not the only platform that has Google as the current default search.

    >[while Apple has 24% of unit sales and 50% of all mobile web traffic.]
    Statistics I’d like to see. Were these the AdMob statistics from a while back? I seem to recall shockingly high data from some advertising firm indicating a heavy iPhone mobile web presence…

    >[If Google loses access to that, it loses the mobile search/ads market.]
    Maybe if Google removes the Google App from the App Store, and they don’t allow changing of the search (and Google’s algorithim is VERY good for obscure searches). And Google has a lot of people already on board. Several companies, including Mozilla, have revenue sharing deals on searches with Google already. I wonder if Apple wants to enter that market. It would be interesting…

  • frankeee

    Extremely strong article, Daniel!

    Now since I do do trips between Australia, Europe and the US rather frequently there is only one thing to hope for: iPhone OS licensed to the back seat entertainment system of carriers like Singapore Airlines, Thai Airways, Emirates Airlines and last but not least Quantas (however the latter rather work on their aircrafts first).

    Catch!
    PS: just watching Ferris Buehler on DVD, as always with me that format craps out at 85% into any movie – in fact: buried! Handbrake to the rescue!

  • frankeee

    PSS: there ought to be a restriction on comment word count here. No122 took commenting to the next level of self-explanation. Perhaps an iBook submission might serve well here … just a thought!
    And yes: I am guilty of not having read it all – just a habit of mine!

  • frankeee

    Oh, and if I may jump into the conversation:
    Nintendo did the ever greatest thing with GameBoy – I had one for years. A remarkable device! The iPod of gaming devices when I was in an apprenticeship and had to travel a lot to get there!
    Anything DS to me was a cheap plastic device with two screens – I mean: why? It’s not like it delivered a 3D experience (oh yes I heard about the 3DS – can it go more horrible?). A friend of mine bought a DS at an OpShop (for none Australians: Opportunity Shop) for 5 bucks. Wasn’t worth it if you ask me.

    As for the ‘Office’ topic: yep! Daniel is correct on this one! MS Office reminds me of my old car I used to have: let’s fix that rotten exhaust pipe every year, polish it and give it a nice towel around, Problem is: it ony gets bigger, not better! The mobile/iPad version of Pages seems like buying a brand new titanium enforced latest of it’s range super exhaust – at the price the welding machine would cost me to fix the old one. True: MS Office not dead, but a zombie!

  • somefagfromg

    frankeee,

    Who is to say I can’t post my diatribe in the comments section here? :)

  • http://themacadvocate.com TheMacAdvocate

    I found your whack-a-mole in comments almost as entertaining as the article itself.

    It’s not so much Hotmail users (although it is a pretty decent flag) as it is being a DS/PSPtard. They’re fairly easy to spot and possess the tenacity of the most fervent M$ apologist.

    To them I say: if you want to come off as 13 year olds in public for the rest of your lives, that’s cool. Don’t think in 2 years when Apple is selling a device that does 20x as much for $300 that developers are going to give a flying shit about your platform. You can hear the squeals of the rats flying off the ships already.

  • Aframe

    QUOTE: “….. thanks for being a jerk, as its so hard to come by anonymous, arrogant, and ignorant turds on the Internet.” – Dan ENDQUOTE

    PRICELESS – This kind of insight and judgement is hard to come buy these days, on the internet or elsewhere. If there was an award for an appropriate “riposte”, the Nobel Smack Down Prize for example, Daniel Eran Dilger’s Roughly Drafted would be a nomination. Keep up the good work!!!

    One more thing. Let’s not forget that Office for the iPad costs $30, Office for the PC costs $300. Cheapskate America will vote with its dollars, and the iPad will be even more successful than even Dan the Man can imagine.

  • Aframe

    “PRICELESS – This kind of insight and judgement is hard to come buy these days”

    How did that typo get there? Of course it should have read “hard to come by “.

    I blame Bill Gates ……….

  • shadash

    Aframe,
    Did you find any polyps while you were up there?

  • somefagfromg

    Oh boy, some interesting comments here.

    In response to TheMacAdvocate:
    Calling people “DS/PSPtard[s]” does not automatically make your points correct.

    Nintendo has several successful franchises and has done well for themselves. Their consoles are VERY abuse tolerant, and are currently 1/3 the price of an iPad, with backwards compatibility for all your old games, and longer battery life.

    As far as young adults…the iPhone/iPod Touch has taken much of that market away. I find myself using my DS less and less, and I don’t have any plans to buy the new 3D handheld. Adults tend to do less portable gaming as a whole, and as such don’t see the merit in a separate device.

    However, lines such as “if you want to come off as 13 year olds in public for the rest of your lives, that’s cool.” detract from the validity of the point that Apple’s devices have the potential to lure many users from dedicated gaming devices, and instead make you come off as the very fanboy you decried earlier.

    frankee:
    The number of people I know who stick with non-current versions of Office is growing. It’s not fair to say that Microsoft has done nothing with the suite, however. Office 2007’s much loved/hated ribbon was a slight adjustment but put stuff buried in submenus up front while keeping everything organized- I liked it. And Office 2010 has some REALLY cool collaboration features- you can have 6 people editing different parts of a document at the same exact time and have it all edit live. There are some videos if you don’t want to try the beta.

    Microsoft’s trying to keep Office innovative. However most word processors will do what most users need. While I think Apple will be successful in selling their office apps on the iPad, I hardly see them as replacing Office sales.

    As someone who owned a DS and upgraded to a DS Lite, I’m inclined to disagree. The Ouendan/Elite Beat Agents were just one of many games to use the dual screen and touch screens well. I got a lot of mileage out of my DS.

    danpoarch:
    I sincerely doubt the iPad is going to kill Windows. Backwards compatibility, multitasking, hardware compatibility, etc. all make this a very bold claim- it’s not impossible, but I wouldn’t bet money on it.

    The iPad does a lot of those functions well, and it will serve its users well. However, it doesn’t have the same software ecosystem, can’t multitask, etc. – it’s not a full fledged replacement.

    Frame rates do matter. 30 is needed for “fluid” gaming, and 60 gives “realistic” gaming – it’s what the makers of the Ratchet & Clank series always targeted (they said they were giving it up for the next game). Eventually, it DOES become a pissing match.

    I’ve made my points on my thoughts on Office before… that said, I agree that the iPad is a complement to a full fledged computer, not a replacement.

    90% is a bold claim and that’s going to depend on the user for sure. The App Store is great, but the breadth of software on regular PCs is just huge.

    As far as Microsoft not being able to combat it…why do you think they have their fingers in so many pies? They’re getting digital distribution down- they’re finally making money on the Xbox. They’re always trying new stuff on the web, and consumer electronics- often failing to Apple, to their chagrin. The size of the company results in a lot of infighting- the Office team HATED the tablet team and has slowed integration of tablet features in Office for years.

    They know that they have issues. They know that they could become as irrelevant as the many companies they buried. They are scared, and they are working to try to make sure that doesn’t happen. Still, MS still doesn’t have appliances down right. They need some focus.

  • http://themacadvocate.com TheMacAdvocate

    I’d feel much more compelled to respond to your non-points if my eyes didn’t immediately jump from your avatar to the term “detract from the validity of”. Kind of sums it up.

  • http://motorizedmount.com Alan

    I doubt the iPad will kill or destroy anything. There will always be a market for people that want more functionality than Apple provides, at least in their first few revisions of a new product. Sure I would love to have an extra USB port, an iSight camera, a memory slot to expand storage, and a few improvements to the OS that might come with the 4.0 announcement tomorrow….but none of those are deal breakers. I think the iPad’s biggest competition will not come from netbooks, gaming devices, kindle, or other tablet devices soon to be released. The biggest competition will be from iPhone/iPod Touch/ and other smart phone owners who are relatively happy with their devices. They are the hardest sell. My phone already does everything I need when away from my desktop so I will not buy the 1st generation iPad. But once the second version is released and some of the shortcomings are addressed I can see myself buying an iPad. Since I can even use my phone as a 3G to wifi hotspot, it will probably even extend the life of my phone by another year or more.

  • Chipotle

    “Let’s not forget that Office for the iPad costs $30, Office for the PC costs $300. Cheapskate America will vote with its dollars…”

    If it were that simple nobody would be using Office now, dude. There have been countless office programs on the cheap. Many of them were pretty bad, but some of them were pretty good. Here’s the thing: everyone says that 80% of the users only use 20% of the features in Microsoft Word or Excel, but it’s not the same 20% for all of those users. Anyone who uses a word processor regularly is likely to have one or two “dealbreaker” features, without which they will not use a program no matter how good its other features may be. For some people it’s automatic table of contents generation; for some people it’s footnotes; for some people it’s the ability to divide a document into logical sections that can use slightly different layout features (a report with multiple sections, or a novel with multiple chapters). If you have the kind of job where you spend four or more hours a day working with a particular kind of program, “almost” does not cut it. Period.

    Pages on the iPad, according to Apple’s own support document, doesn’t support footnotes, endnotes, tables of contents, change tracking, and multiple-page tables. Keynote drops all the presentation notes (which is really dismaying, given that it would be perfect for it to display them on its screen while outputting to the VGA screen), and drops any embedded audio. Neither Keynote nor Word support 3D Charts. And neither Keynote nor Numbers can export back to Microsoft Office, even though they can import PowerPoint and Excel respectively.

    Obviously, these are all software issues and they can be potentially addressed in future releases. (Or, of course, they can be addressed by third party programs, like Mariner Calc.) But I can absolutely guarantee you that “Cheapskate America” is not going to be migrating en masse to the iPad with these limitations any time soon.

  • http://themacadvocate.com TheMacAdvocate

    @ulicar
    I can imagine the “English as a second language” thing might be somewhat of a hinderance when trying to make points in comments. That doesn’t excuse you from being stupid.

    The iPad sold twice as many units in a truncated opening weekend than the original iPhone, a device with a comparable price point, did did in its first month. Your Cube analogy is probably about as far off as it can be: the iPad outsold all the Cubes sold – ever – by a 2:1 margin over the same weekend.

    The micro shrinkage in iPhone market share is due solely to 3.0 being a little “long in the tooth”. That will be remedied tom’w.

    Your non-existent logic, nearly incomprehensible syntax and personal attacks are like sandpaper to my eyes. Kindly pick up a copy of Rosetta Stone and half a brain before you hit up the comments section of this blog next time.

  • SunnyGuy53

    >Now iPhone is shrinking, while RIM and Google are growing in the smart phone world. Could it be that multitasking IS important, that FLASH IS important, that …

    If multitasking (which the iPhone does have for some apps) and Flash were as important, as you suggest, would the iPhone have skyrocketed to take more than 25% of the smartphone market in record time? I don’t think so.

    I would categorize the iPhone’s marketshare being down a tenth of a percent, over a recent 3 month period, as non-news. But whatever floats your boat.

    And if you want to compare the iPad to the Mac Cube, then sorry, but you bias is showing. There is zero similarity.

    It seems you’re grasping at straws.

    I know, don’t feed the trolls. Sorry about that.

    Sunny Guy

  • ulicar

    @macadvocate compared to expected 700000 units, it failed. Most conservative estimates 400000 – 500000 and it still failed. iPad failed well below the expectations, no question about it. And no truncated weekend. Those 300K actually count in “sales included deliveries of pre-ordered iPads to customers, deliveries to channel partners and sales at Apple Retail Stores” :) It was the longest “first day” in the history of Apple :) It lasted almost two months :)

    Original iPhone was not covered with the hype surrounding iPad, so it is not really surprise that it outsold the original iPhone. Compare it with the iPhone3G. Apple sold 1 million of those phones the first weekend :) iPad FAILED, and that is fact :)

    @ SunnyGuy53 I would recommend going to the shop and getting iPad, because it sold so well, Apple will keep it in their offer, sure :)

  • cgp

    I hope it will kill the application code sent over the
    wires crapology that I’ve detested abount web-based apps
    ever since they infested IT.

    It will revive compiled code, yea, yippie.
    We will now have a huge blossoming of functionality
    of applications connected to the web.
    Note that a flash plugin is just one of oh-cannot
    put this in the javascript code-in-the-wires nonsense
    that will go.

    Example, bullet SDK physics combined with decent
    graphics rendering (on a small scale).

  • cgp

    Oh one more.

    It kills the computer!!

    The computer disappears. This nerd-based contraption
    with its idio(t)syncrasies gives way to a universal device.

  • Pingback: iPad esordisce, applausi del pubblico « GmG’s Weblog()

  • quicksite

    Daniel, you have a powerful mind, a deep sense of context, a very engaging writing style, and a brash leap-taking confidence.

    I found your whole analysis and article very convincing, even if some of it is slightly over the top, and you would probably admit so if under the influence of drinks or relaxants. Glossy brochures? No, not dead. Especially in your example of auto dealerships.

    Conceptually your observation is right-on, but until the ipad can be rolled up and stuck in a back pocket, or folded, or dropped to the ground or made available for $25 or so, very doubtful consumers of means “on the go” have any interest at all in being laden with a device they have to “be careful” with. It makes more sense that they’d be handed whatever the latest version of a usb flash drive will be to plug into their own computer at home or yes, even ipad… But sitting down at dealership to take in the grand presentation? No way. Oh, not that? The dealer sends them out on loaner and expects they be returned by x date? What kind of buyer wants that constraint or pressure.

    You’re off on that one, though the concept of glossy presentations on an ipad trumping glossy presentations on paper? I’ll buy that. But dead in this case is one of the few laughable points in an otherwise really provocative gutsy article (and yes, designed to be controversial, = traffic, = ad dollars, = attention.)

    But that’s a trifle compared to your alleged obituary for Android. Sorry, but it seems very clear you have very little experience in Things Androidy. I happen to be a Mac user since 1986, so i can’t be accused of being a clueless Windows fanboy. But the rapid & total dismissal of Android strikes me as beyond brash, and bordering on not even hubristic, but rather more on just plain stupid. No way you ARE stupid based on the calibre of your thoughtful analysis. But to come to that conclusion really, to me, suggests faulty wiring somewhere in your head? (were you dropped recently?)

    For ease of reference for anyone who happens to read this comment: Behold:

    (( Android has one trick, and its a mess. The phone hardware wasn’t designed right, the OS has architectural problems, and the app model presents major security issues. All customers care about is what it can do. But Android can’t play sophisticated games, nor is anyone buying enough apps to turn that situation around. ))

    a. define the “one trick”
    b. defend every statement following that.

    If you have it down totally, which you would have to in order to be so bold as to cremate Android so soon in its growth cycle, I am betting you can convince me. So convince me. Otherwise, a big fat gaping hole in an otherwise superb and brilliant envisionment of the next 5 to 10 years.

    [The “one trick” Android has is selling smartphones. In the context, I was talking about how the iPod touch (nearly half of Apple’s iPhone OS installed base, and statistically a population that buys 2x as many apps as smartphone users) and (potentially) iPad are supporting the App Store. Android has nothing but smartphone users. There is talk about tablets, but none have been sold yet.

    So Android has much less strategy laid out, and much less holding up its Android Market. It has no significant-sized apps due to memory allocation issues (AM apps can only be loaded into system RAM, and not into SD Cards, where most Android phones have most of their storage. There’s just lots of serious limitations that nobody mentions because nobody wants to speak ill of the slow platform.

    There are no big games, no games from big developers; Android apps are hobbyist fare; they’re what developers wanted to do, not what the market wants to buy. iPhone haters talk about Fart Apps and how there’s so much hype behind Apple, but Android is pretty much nothing but Fart Apps and hype. It’s not some new market, it’s just the historical WiMo and LG crap phones buyers now shifted over to Android apps. And I believe its almost all in the US, thanks to Verizon’s iPhone void. Android has been around just about as long as iPhone (came out a couple months after). So it’s had lots of time to catch up. But it hasn’t; it’s just eaten up the slightly more pitiful Palm OS and WiMo. What it will do remains to be seen, but I’ve lost any faith that Android will do anything but slobber through 2010 as an increasingly tragic figure. Of course, I can be wrong. We’ll see. – Dan ]

  • gctwnl

    It is interesting to see how the Apple G4 Cube is often used in argument to raise the spectre of Apple failing at something cool. Interesting for two reasons: 1. you need to go 10 years back to find a decent flop, 2. today’s mini is in fact just what the Cube was (even less changeable), only less cool in packaging.

    Comparing the iPad with the G4 Cube is just silly for too many reasons than can be stated here.

    Given the apparent frenzy to create apps for this platform (and given that the iPhone became succesful even before it was possible to have third party apps) it looks pretty good for the iPad. Nothing is certain in the marketplace, but given that development and the fact that possible pad-competitors are years behind (they might create nice hardware but have neither the software or iTunes/app store ecosystem to come near the functionality and user experience of iPad + third party), and given that we are talking about WiFi-only, US-only distribution still and a world to conquer, I am optimistic about the iPad’s future.

  • Aframe

    Chipotle { 04.07.10 at 3:40 pm } quoted:
    “Let’s not forget that Office for the iPad costs $30, Office for the PC costs $300. Cheapskate America will vote with its dollars…”
    and wrote:
    If it were that simple nobody would be using Office now, dude. ….. “Cheapskate America” is not going to be migrating en masse to the iPad with these limitations any time soon.

    Interesting response. Of course, there is more functionality right now on the desktop PC, we are only just starting with the finger-pointing device and the iPad productivity apps can only get better. But the fact that even so we are almost there with most of the functionality, and that the hardware and software package is something like half of the cost, means that it will happen. Not “anytime soon” as in this year, possibly not even next year, but within five years ….. probably.

    If Chipotle and others want to be part of the future, rather than picking over the bones of the past, working with the direction Apple’s iPad has pointed us to could be a good career move.

  • http://www.curiosity.com curiositrey

    One more thing it will kill: miserable tech support requests from crazy relatives. My wife’s aunt wants me to repair her Internet connection, I can’t wait….She has a 17 pound IBM Thinkpad with a 56k modem – and she connects to AOL with her handy 25 foot long phone cord. I have spent numerous afternoons and evening resetting that thing…I can picture an entire segment of the population buying the 3G iPads, syncing them at home, and then handing them off to in-laws, family friends, etc., and that will be the end of that. Or should I buy her a net book with Linux so that she doesn’t end up trapped in the woeful stability of the iPad/iPhone OS? I can picture her during our phone calls, when I ask if her to reset her router, going out to her husband’s workshop and picking up the power tools.

    So the crazy old people are gonna end up with them, our kids think that their lapsers, psp’s, and Nintendo DS’s are crap already, they fight over their shared 10 minutes a day on the iPad all the time.

    I am eagerly awaiting all of the new tech rollouts by apple competitors now…If a new nintendo game isn’t ported for iPad, if CS5 won’t run on the iPad, why are you releasing it? Just seems like classic inertial American business practice.

  • quicksite

    Dan writes in reply to my questions:

    (( [The “one trick” Android has is selling smartphones. In the context, I was talking about how the iPod touch (nearly half of Apple’s iPhone OS installed base, and statistically a population that buys 2x as many apps as smartphone users) and (potentially) iPad are supporting the App Store. Android has nothing but smartphone users. There is talk about tablets, but none have been sold yet. ))

    ** Dan, the issue of #s of device-types (relating to different market sectors) running android, as you’ve laid it out, assumes that the success of android as an open source OS for touchscreen devices, is predicated upon app sales. Your whole argument there seems tipsy because from a consumer’s point of view, apps, and more importantly, “significant apps” (as you allege iPhone has but Android doesn’t — very arguable as you provide zero evidence, just a statement as though fact) — are not the primary drivers of why people are buying android-powered phones.

    How can you be so short-sighted or even tunnel-visioned about this? I truly suspect you are driving your argument here based on reviews and other 2nd or even 3rd hand information. I would be more persuaded if you listed all the android devices you have used for more than 2-minutes at a trade show. I’d like to see your list if all devices you have used for at least 3 days in your total possession, where you are free to experience the device 100%, vs some quickie “try a few things then conclude based on generalization and assumptions.”

    If you present your list, and it you can substantiate issues with user experience that you deem unacceptable to mainstream consumers, then I am still all ears. Not to be a smartass, but I think you are busted here. I don’t think you HAVE any appreciable experience with android-based phones… and in particular, android phones running HTC sense UI.

    For if you did, it would be rather unfathomable that you can dismiss all these phones like the HTC Hero (especially the European GSM models which were in the marketplace 6 months prior to USA’s uglied-down Sprint abomination, or Verizon’s Eris), but even more important the just released HTC Desire.

    I’m calling you on this because I think your premise is very flawed re your criteria for what makes “android” a success or a dead platform. It’s not all about apps, and for you to shoehorn that idea to your readers as though cut and dry, that’s disingenuous, or, again, slightly ignorant of the total user experience around android.

    My counter-arguments to you here are not to bust your overall premise — because as clearly stated, I think your analysis, minus my two objections, is a home run, and really reflects some powerful thinking ahead about ripple effects and ultimate cessation of viability of certain tools and devices that get wiped off the map by iPad.

    I just think you either hyperbolized for dramatic effect (drives readership, admit it), or out of a real lack of authoritative knowledge re Android, and that’s what I am addressing here. Because I otherwise agree with your overall analysis of the many usage areas where iPad will likely kill off older dead tech or delivery systems.

    You won’t agree with me of course, because what tech writer EVER agrees with a challenger who busts their premise… You have to simply fortify your original stance lest it be seen you are submissive to information and arguments that expose a lack of knowledge in a key subject matter area.

    You’re wrong about android. The android sweep of the Chritsmas season, and its subsequent 2010 increasing market penetration, helped immensely by Redmond’s absolute failures, shows that users LIKE android phones — a bunch of them.

    And it is there that your premise is shot to pieces. But the good thing here is i have discovered your magazine. I’m here in SF, as are you, yet i had not been a reader til i saw this article linked from an australian IT website which had argued “A doze things the iPad is missing, and why you should wait til version 2.0” — mind you, NOT trashing it al all, just pointing out some first release problems, yes expected, but nonetheless causing problems — like no USB — like no compatibility with MS word for officeplace ease of integrated use — no wireless projection — printing problems, etc.

    They had the decency to post a prominent link to your article as providing a completely counter-view… which shows confidence in presenting an argument, substantiating it, and ALSO providing easy access to dissenting presentation — yours.

    Because now that I have seen your writing, I like it, and I like your mindset re how things play out in tech usability. I just disgaree with one major argument — and yes, we shall see. I would happy to place a substantial dollar bet with you on this, and put it into escrow. Are you on? We will both establish measurable criteria for what constiututes success or death of the android platform over X year arc of time.

    (( It has no significant-sized apps due to memory allocation issues (AM apps can only be loaded into system RAM, and not into SD Cards, where most Android phones have most of their storage. ))

    Part 1 is a leap; what does file size have to do with effectiveness of app? But part 2, yes, correct, at the moment. But at XDA-devs, they’ve already busted that down able to install apps on SD cards, so that argument goes out the window.

    (( There’s just lots of serious limitations that nobody mentions because nobody wants to speak ill of the slow platform. ))

    I don’t know. It’s fair to say apple was smarter with its choice of processors etc, but not accurate to say “slow” to the real competitors now: The snapdragon processor based devices, again in particular the HTC Desire, but Nexus One as well, and several others.

    (( There are no big games, no games from big developers;))

    True –AND ? This is your guaranteed make/break argument for the success or death of android platform? I’ve handled this argument. You;re wrong to frame its success based on apps.

    (( Android apps are hobbyist fare; they’re what developers wanted to do, not what the market wants to buy. ))

    ** I’m sorry but that doesn’t fly. That requires at minimum a rundown of apps in the Android market to see if that holds up. For me, I love my phone for its speed, functionality, ease of use, extremely easy ability to customize easy access to information I care about. I have never been a games player ever, whether on my Macs for 25 years, or PCs. Don’t care about them. Not everyuone does. But even still, the apps I want and care about they have — and I will name them if you reply fully to this comment, and we will play this out, or you will demure and back off needing to “move on” to fresher content (which is standard behavior for tech writers when challenged)

    (( iPhone haters talk about Fart Apps and how there’s so much hype behind Apple, but Android is pretty much nothing but Fart Apps and hype. ))

    First off — what is this use of language as it applies to ME, and my arguments. I am not an iphone hater, never said a damn thing negative about it. So you’re not allowed to use that as a crutch when addressing my concerns. Yes, there exist iPhone haters. But maybe you;d be surprised to learn that there are smart, competent people who like the iphone, and also like android phones, and have reasons why they might even like android phones better — without resorting to also hating iphone. So knock that off.

    (( It’s not some new market, it’s just the historical WiMo and LG crap phones buyers now shifted over to Android apps. ))

    This is a very poor reach of a comment. But seriously i recognize you don’t have time to devote to simply my comment, and you’re dashing off at least some substantive replies… some of them, like this one, are just sloppy and lack any basis other than a shoot from hip.

    The percentage rise in use of of android phones from increasing numbers worldwide suggests you are not being accurate. And yes, if pressed i will google and pull the surveys I have read from legitimate market research firms. But i don;t have it at tip of my fingers this second.

    Just as one tiny argument — and I mean tiny — There is a market not served by iphone — and laugh if you will but it is born out in studies: women with fingernails. Doesn’t work for them, nor does any android capacitive screen, and that’s physics, nothing else. So let’s not be so ridiculous with such statements. Maybe Apple has a capacitive stylus (OH NO, the dreaded stylus! Doesn’t everyone know if its not finger, its failure!) — or better yet a capcitive finger tip that enables people with nails to use the phone. Tell me.

    (( Android has been around just about as long as iPhone (came out a couple months after).))

    Can you please cite that with links. It sounds preposterous. a RELEASED os on a phone? That was the G1 at T-Mobile USA. Go check that date and come back and give your mea-culpa. Now you;re getting shoddy when shooting from hip and off by several years.

    (( So it’s had lots of time to catch up. But it hasn’t; it’s just eaten up the slightly more pitiful Palm OS and WiMo. ))

    I’m sorry, that is just absurd. The differences between android 1.0 and 2.0 are enormous, and all with 1.5 years, not 3. THis need not be a pissing match, but you’re the one who opened this door. To remain credible, you need to back up what you’re saying here because now you’re disintegrating to all over the map without any whiff of evidence. I call you out. You’re not accurate, in fact you are actively misrepresenting the truth here.

    (( What it will do remains to be seen, but I’ve lost any faith that Android will do anything but slobber through 2010 as an increasingly tragic figure. Of course, I can be wrong. We’ll see. – Dan ))

    Yes, we will see. And now I am ready to bet you. Will you pony up? let;s say $2500 . You choose the escrow holder.

  • http://www.markalanthomas.com marsviolet

    Rufustfirefly doesn’t seem to realize that if Lincoln were alive today, he’d be a Democrat. Today’s Republicans bear little resemblance to that great man.

  • http://www.markalanthomas.com marsviolet

    Quicksite, you use more words than Android has apps. The Android is not only dead, it never lived.

  • quicksite

    (( Quicksite, you use more words than Android has apps. The Android is not only dead, it never lived. )) Spoken like a true idiot savant. At least I can discuss something with facts and accuracy and refrain from fanboyism. I have used Macs longer than you have, love all apple products, resisted windows for decades til i was forced to use it at a job and found “okay, it’s not so bad. I can accomplish what I need to do. I prefer the mac, but so be it. PCs are okay.” … And before there was an iphone, i wanted a touchscreen device and bought the T-Mobile MDA, a windows mobile phone… Im didn’t care. I am platform agnostic. I may be wordy, but I’m not some fool who ties his self-worth to a brand name. To me, i use what I like and what works, and yes, product design often wins out. In this case though, the premise of android being dead is a dead-giveaway that you don’t know the first thing about it. Nobody who does would be so ignorant “it never lived”. Wow. Engrave that on your tombstone. It’s so profound.

    Meanwhile, anyone care to answer my questions on pure merits facts and actual user experience data?

  • http://www.cyclelogicpress.com Neil Anderson

    Awesome article as usual. Definitely hit a nerve among many commenters.