Daniel Eran Dilger
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iPad, the destroyer: 19 things it will kill

Daniel Eran Dilger

Pundits, particularly of the Windows Enthusiast variety, don’t understand the iPad. It won’t kill the netbook and certainly can’t kill the notebook, they tell us. If only they knew what the iPad was really meant to destroy.

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Steve Jobs likes to kill old things

Back in the 1970s, Steve Jobs pushed his Apple co-founder to kill the expansion slots of the Apple II. Steve Wozniac fought to retain them, but by 1984, Apple was selling lots of machines without slots, including the Apple IIc and the Macintosh. They supplied easier to use ports instead, so users didn’t have to buy a serial expansion card just to plug in their printer.

Jobs killed the 5.25“ floppy drive by introducing the 3.5” floppy on the Macintosh, then killed it off too in the 1998 iMac, telling users to burn CDs or use the network. The iMac also killed off a variety of old legacy ports to capitalize on the premise of Intel’s USB.

In software, Jobs killed off the command-line with the Macintosh only to return to it with NeXTSTEP, but its rich graphic desktop meant users only went there when they wanted to, not when their graphical shell abandoned them in the dark wilderness of DOS at inopportune times. Jobs didn’t kill the CLI, he kill its necessity for all users.

Read Jobs’ more personal musings from the early 80s through the 90s and into the last decade, and you get the clear impression that Jobs understands death as a creative force better than most people. For society, culture, and technology to progress, old thinking has to die off to make way for fresh new ideas. People who don’t die are dragged kicking and screaming in the future the way Strom Thurmond panted into the last decade with segregation still ripe on his breath.

Jobs has uniquely, and remarkably, kept pace with radical changes in technology to maintain a position on the progressive front fringe of tech like no other figure in history. Nobody else has been around for nearly 40 years of progress, continuously leading major companies that define how the world works, and with a finger in everything from the enterprise to education to consumer markets.

A reason to kill

When something works, you don’t need to kill it. But in some cases you should, as Jobs proved time and time again over his career. The iPod Mini was wildly popular, but Apple cut it down at its apex to introduce the Flash RAM iPod nano, which was even smaller and more durable.

Apple could also have mostly sacrificed its iPod business in order to gain the larger and much more lucrative iPhone, but it didn’t do that. Instead, it killed the old idea of what the iPod was: a big hard drive wrapped in a layer of simple user interface for choosing songs from a list.

In its place, it created the iPod touch, which carried on the torch of the iPod brand while slowly phasing out the old identity of the iPod. This is fantastically difficult to do. One only needs to look at companies like Palm and Nokia and Microsoft and Sony to see how much easier it is for even large groups of smart people to take a successful product and let it either die on the vine or fail midway through attempts to revitalize it.

Apple, with Jobs at the helm, has so expertly pulled off massive coups over and over that everyone in the media has been lulled into thinking that this sort of thing is simple stuff that you just plan out and then do by throwing money around, apparently unaware that Sony and Microsoft and Palm and everyone else has had lots of time and money to do what Apple has done over the last decade. They just don’t know how to do it.

The iPad prepares for a killing spree

Apple isn’t about to destroy its MacBook business, which has been expanding dramatically over the last half decade. And it didn’t introduce the iPad to kill off the iPhone or iPod touch. Successfully creating something new without sacrifice is all that much harder to do. It will require Apple to kill off interest in rival things of its competitor’s in order to allow the iPad to inhale the attention spans of consumers that those devices were once consuming.

TV killed off the radio. The CD killed off the audio cassette. DVDs killed off VCRs. The Internet has helped to kill off a variety of things that used to make sense before it, from travel agents to directory assistance operators (if you don’t think those things are dead, you probably are getting fairly old). And so it is that the iPad will kill a lot of stuff.

DVDs. Steve Jobs’ hobby of Apple TV set up a market for immediate movie rentals and purchases via iTunes. That’s still there, but the iPad now delivers the same functionality with wireless mobility, in addition to the value of everything else it does (and unlike the fixed, limited features of ATV). Additionally, iPad also supports services like Hulu and Netflix, which will appeal to a wide audience of users who already use those services. Why do we own DVD’s again? Dead.

eReaders. Oh the Kindle, we hardly knew ye. And the Sony Reader and the B&N Nook. Your e-ink screens pleased pundits and the cat ladies who sit around reading novel after novel, but it was a remarkably limited technology. The rest of your hardware and software was pretty marginal, so it’s hard to weep. Dead.

Stacks of papers in office meetings. Xerox dutifully churns through forests of trees to create documents that will only ever be glanced at once, if that. Greenpeace doesn’t care, because making a stink won’t help it get donations. All the group can be bothered to announce is that the iPad might access servers that sit on the predominantly coal-fired US electrical grid. Stupid jerks. Anyways, every company that is somebody will be passing around iPads loaded with digital documents. Companies are already ordering fleets of iPads, for the same reason their executives sport MacBook Pros: they say “we’re creative and use high quality stuff.” Reams of papers: you’re dead.

Textbooks. Kindle suggested some hope that kids wouldn’t need to be busting their little necks with backpacks full of massive paper volumes of static learning content. But Kindle’s e-ink technology isn’t any good at random page browsing or quickly jumping back and forth between sections. It’s also painful to mark up with annotations. The iPad has none of those problems, and adds all manner of new interactivity and video features, making it a good decade for trees. Short term, thick tomes of rapidly changing educational content: you’re dead.

Netbooks. Oh Dan, you’re so controversial. Netbooks are an amazingly cheap way to get low powered, junky hardware that can even run Linux if anyone cared to. You can type into a word processor, play moron-level Flash weblet games, and even surf the web. Yeah but you can’t enjoy the experience. Netbooks, you’ll only live on in that you’ve already killed of the desktop PC, but your wildly hyped premise? It’s dead.

PSP, DS. Oh no, now you’re just being mean. Think of the children. No, let the children think for themselves. Who wants to shell out $30-50 for a dopey game title when you can download cool $1-5 games to your iPod touch on a regular basis or get rich, major games from big publishers for $6-12 on the iPad? They’re beautiful, wildly interactive, and are going to slay Nintendo and Sony in the portable gaming market. Nintendo’s boss says he doesn’t get the iPad. That’s executive speak for “I’m going down with the ship.” The correct answer was: “We’re creating iPad titles based on our beloved franchises as fast as we can.” Ya’ll are dead.

Brochures. You walk into a Mercedes dealership or begin talking to a real estate agent about that multi-million dollar property and they used to hand you a glossy printed brochure. Screw that. Now you’re going to be handed a digitally interactive version of the product on an iPad you can peruse as the sales expert tugs at your heart strings. They send you a link to look at at home, too. Sold. Glossy print? Dead.

Single-purpose industrial gadgets. Custom developed information systems that cost the government millions to develop in small scale batches. Inventory systems that use some clunky old version of the Windows Mobile platform Microsoft itself just marked for death in its effort to clone the iPhone of 2008 in WP7 next year. Proprietary medical management and note-taking systems, sometimes based on (ugh it stinks) Tablet PC. Category, you could have been a short list unto yourself, but it doesn’t matter because you’re all dead.

Other tablet-ish stuff. Yes, I already mentioned Tablet PC, but this catch-all bucket of death is about the consumer market. This stuff historically kills itself: Palm’s whatever, Nokia Tablets, CrunchPad, UMPC, Slate PC. Along with the death of all this stuff comes the death of Microsoft’s ability to decree what devices are called. It doesn’t make anything anyone wants to buy, so why is it defining all the ridiculous category names? HHPC, UMPC, PMP, really? Microsoft, your leadership in consumer electronics is just like your products and those of Palm and the rest of them: dead.

The credibility of haters. People who earn their livelihood by saying stupid things about Apple, either because they’re shills for a rival firm or because they generate more web traffic staying stupid things about Apple than saying stupid things about another company people care less about, are going to find it remarkably difficult to prattle off more of the same garbage they’ve trotted out repeatedly about the iPhone, the iPod touch, and the iPad. John Dvorak, Daniel Lyons, Paul Thurrott, etc, ad nauseum aren’t going to be able to be taken seriously at Apple’s next launch. But those people aren’t being taken seriously now; the real change will be that fraud marketing and public relations groups who prepare “data” showing how uninterested developers report themselves being in Apple’s next platform, or how terribly worried customers are about not having Flash, or whatever other synthetic results the fact-factory was paid to deliver are simply increasingly and obviously going to be seen as an ineffectual waste of marketing resources. Dead.

Flash and Silverlight and JavaFX. What if Apple created a significant new category of computing devices and connected it to its installed base of 70 million mobile devices, and none of it ran Flash nor Silverlight nor JavaFX? Why would anyone bother to learn that stuff? To deprive Android of having any native apps? To keep performance from rocketing out of control? To expand the required development efforts and QA by orders of magnitude, with no commercial payoff? Dead.

Office. Wait, how does the iPad kill Office? Well, much as the revitalized Mac OS X first proved that, even post-2000, it was possible to create and maintain a software platform mostly independent from Microsoft, and as iPhone established that Apple could successfully introduce a major new platform not based on Windows and Intel chips and turn it into a an important force in mobile software, the iPad is now merging those realities toward Office in a threatening way. Microsoft struggled to launch Vista and it failed to keep WiMo going, but it still seems to be full steam ahead for its Office monopoly. But no, there’s no hint of a multitouch version of Office similar to Apple’s new $10 iWork apps. Apple has beat Microsoft to market again, before its rival even realized it was in trouble of losing anything. Microsoft’s comical Pocket and Mobile versions of Office are embarrassing, and the company hasn’t demonstrated any ability to copy the iPhone or the iPod touch successfully, so what hope is there for a Microsoft tablet or a mobile-savvy port of its currently very PC-centric Office suite? Microsoft doesn’t even have any financial motivation to port Office to the iPad, given the$10 per app threshold Apple set. Dead.

Windows Media Center, set top boxes, Tivo. Microsoft kept flogging the idea of having a command center for recorded TV sitting on your family PC that you can push to your Xbox 360 to watch on your TV. Uptake has been weak enough to keep it free bundleware. But who’d want that when they’re already using iTunes, have iPods and iPhones, and can watch live streaming content or their own library of stuff or movies or episodic TV they can buy on demand, from anywhere? Sony’s trying to push the PS3 as a hub for content, and Tivo has been hemorrhaging cash trying to maintain enough subscribers in competition with the cable company’s own boxes. Apple’s the only company with the mobile part figured out, with an anywhere download store, and brilliant ease of use. There’s a lot of living room stuff that’s ending up… dead.

Idle moments. Remember when you used to sit in the park, lost in your lover’s eyes? Now you’re both busy checking messages on your iPhone. Just wait until you get an iPad and you can lock the screen so it won’t flip annoyingly as you try to lie in bed, half awake reading the latest headlines. Now you’ll have a fixed, big screen display giving you bleary-eyed access to all the information that used to stay attached to your desktop computer. The times you spent doing nothing are all now dead.

Chrome OS. Oh noes! Yes, if you thought Google had another year to complete its tablet strategy, you were wrong. By the time the first beta of its HTML-with-Flash only platform ships, the iPad will have a strong installed base and there’ll have been months of iPad adoration in play. How does a simplistic yet expensive web-tablet compare with a sophisticated iPad platform with real media playback (even Android’s fake iPod module is atrocious), real games (not just Farmville), and a vast collection of native software that nobody will have any financial motivation to port to generic ad-supported web pages or Flash apps just to address the slim potential for Google to sell tablets better than it’s been selling smartphones? It’s not here yet, but its going to arrive… dead.

Android. Oh dear, now you’re really going out on a limb. Sure, Android will stick around just like Creative still makes MP3 players and just like AOL is still a going concern, but it will increasingly fail to matter because nothing is holding it up. Apple has three anchors for the iPhone OS, each holding down very different markets and audiences: the iPhone, iPod touch and iPad. They’re suspending the platform like a big tent in the App Store. Android has one trick, and its a mess. The phone hardware wasn’t designed right, the OS has architectural problems, and the app model presents major security issues. All customers care about is what it can do. But Android can’t play sophisticated games, nor is anyone buying enough apps to turn that situation around. Further, Google’s tablet strategy is splintered on Chrome OS. Secretly, that’s because Google doesn’t believe in the future of the Android platform, at least not in its current incarnation as a modified Java VM. The company hopes to migrate its users to HTML apps across the board, so it doesn’t even care that Android Market is losing the battle against the Cocoa Touch App Store. That’s a few reasons why its soon going to be… dead.

Prospects for Windows Phone 7. In 2006, Microsoft unveiled the Zune, thinking it has soundly beat Apple’s 2005 iPod in a number of areas. Then just months later, Apple dropped the iPhone. This time around, Microsoft is striving to achieve a measure of parity with 2008′s iPhone 2.0. The problem this time is that Apple has iPhone 4.0, the fourth generation iPhone and iPod touch, and iPad. How is WP7 going to look relevant or interesting? Dead.

In-flight entertainment systems. Remember the luxury that seat back video screens used to suggest? These days, the early ones look archaic; smaller than an iPod touch. Even the more modern ones are clumsy and look terrible and limit your viewing angles and are likely to not work right. If it does happen to be working, the interface is ridiculous, the buttons barely function, and the content plays at weird times or demands that you pay stupidly high fees just to watch a movie. The iPad is perfect for using in the confines of a plane. It doesn’t need the space of a laptop and works a lot longer. It has a much larger display than a netbook, and its more fun to watch than a iPod or iPhone. Why fool around with some generic junk that may or may not be installed or working when you can ignore that and just relax? Seat backs: dead.

Google’s ad monopoly. With all the revenues it collects from its monopoly, it throws around money on acquisitions and often failed projects. No, not Microsoft in the PC world, it’s Google on the web. Google seems to have earned its position, but the reality is that Google got its lock on the market even more heinously than Microsoft. The company owes its entire existence to stealing the core business of Overture, something that’s no secret but also rarely mentioned these days. After Yahoo acquired Overture, Google paid Yahoo millions in stock to settle the matter, which not only kept Yahoo around as an inconsequential figurehead in search, but also allowed its incompetent management the largess to squander Overture until its talent all ran off to Google and Microsoft. Also like Microsoft, Google ripped off its former partner Apple in hopes of stealing what Apple had invented. But this time around, Apple is playing offensively by moving into the ad market itself. It plans to launch its own ad network and integrate it right into the Cocoa Touch tools, making it that much harder for Google to sell mobile ads (which are currently pretty dysfunctional anyway), the whole reason it got started with Android. If Google is just stuck servicing Android, a group of freetards who refuse to pay for things, who will want to advertise there? Dead.

  • Aframe

    Quicksite asked:
    “Meanwhile, anyone care to answer my questions on pure merits facts and actual user experience data?”

    I think the answer is “probably not”. Why? Well “I may be wordy” provides a clue. Also, this is supposed to be a response to Dan’s article, but Dan has already lost interest, the discussion has degenerated into something about US politics and anyone interested in the future of technology is looking elsewhere.

    May I suggest that you gather your own data and information about the Android platform and the details you refer to, find a way to express this and your conclusions concisely, and post them on an appropriate forum?

    Here in Japan, the first Android phone on my network became available last week. I’m not going to give up my iPhone to try it, especially because the earlier Android phone I saw couldn’t handle the Japanese language properly.

  • quicksite

    No need to reply further. What I have concluded is that this is, in itself, a fanboy site, which is fine. I just didn’t know it til now. ANdroid not handling Japanese. What a clueless joke. I thought this was a legitimate community for fact based analysis. over and out.

  • ulicar

    As tweeted by Conan O’Brien: “Just got the new iPad. This amazing device has already revolutionized the way I use a calculator.”

    hehehehehe. That is iPad the killer :) rotflmao :)

  • Aframe

    Quicksite wrote:
    “No need to reply further. What I have concluded is that this is….. a fanboy site ……. Android not handling Japanese. What a clueless joke. I thought this was a legitimate community for fact based analysis. over and out.”

    This was not a joke at all. In case you haven’t noticed, most technology that is designed in the USA is built in China. I live in Japan, my clients are from the USA, Europe and elsewhere in Asia and our projects are all over the world.

    If Quicksite lives in the USA, he may not understand foreign languages, but he may have purchased products from Walmart, such as Photoframes or DVD players, which are essentially stripped-down computers. Such devices are often based on Linux. They may be able to operate in English and Chinese, but not any other language. The makers have to produce a different version for Japan, which is a market almost as big as USA, and ignore Europe, which is an equally large market but has too many languages……

    Having the capability to make many languages work universally is a key advantage of the Mac OS X that allows Apple to easily localise its products wherever there are customers. The fact that Linux and Android have more difficulties with Japanese language localisation has possibly lost Android phone makers at least a year of mobile phone sales in this potentially lucrative market, and continues to present difficulties to the success of Android outside the US.

  • http://www.curiosity.com curiositrey

    Had to make one more comment, because it seems like the handheld game discussion keeps growing…anyone who thinks the iPad won’t kill handheld games must not have kids, because if you watch kids pick up an iPad, they get the whole picture immediately – it is not a dumb DS replacement, they can watch a movie, paint a picture, record a song and play a game or two. Which handheld does that? And, duh, who would spend $500 to just play games anyway? Of course, adults who spend $150 on handheld games shouldn’t be included in the discussion anyway. They are probably the chosen market for $3 fart Apps though.

  • http://Yahoo ysysarchitect

    Dan,

    I absolutely love your blog!

    I don’t think anything you said is too far fetched.

    I’ve been thinking about what I would do if I could launch an iPad.

    Imagine the strategy. Let’s launch the lowest the product will ever be in features, which are 1000x more than just an ereader, into the market that is already waiting for it, work out the bugs, and we have a hit, a nice slow roller into the market. But wait, there’s more. When the school season hits this fall, the blossoms of the harvest will bloom, and we can be predicting an uber nut will explode from the pressure of school people ready to get this thing. How would one roll out a device this solid? It has the door-to-door immersive connection people other than geeks really want. Who cares about a lot of the way it works, even at it’s worst it’s 1000x better than anything out there, and why not! I think there is a huge market for kiosk-computing, and apple is giving the rest of the market a teachable moment in how to market to humans.

    Keep up the writing, I think you have one of the best blogs on the net.

  • Chipotle

    @Aframe: While I returned very late to this message thread, re: “working the direction the iPad has pointed us to” — yes, absolutely. My complaints about Pages on the iPad in its current incarnation aren’t complaints about the potential of word processing on the iPad. They’re about the current version of Pages on it. :) I have a lot of thoughts about the future of the iPad, but I’m still thinking on how to organize them.

  • http://yahoo.com ysysarchitect

    If Microsoft tanks I think Amazon could buy Microsoft and they could try Windows7 on Kindle. This way you could still get the pretty look of Windows7, only in black and white, and it’ll be more readable in strong sunlight at Starbucks. When the people sitting next to a Windows7 Kindle with their iPads the iPad user can help the Kindle user if there are any colors missing in what they’re reading.

  • huntm856

    Wow. It’s always interesting to come here. You guys live in your own little alternate universe.

    [Please share your normal version of the mainstream everyman with us so we can appreciate your average mediocrity. - Dan]

  • huntm856

    @curiositrey

    Re gaming on iPad: I’m not sure I agree with you. I have a 14-yo son who has a Touch, and he plays some of the simple games like TapTap on it but doesn’t seem that taken with it as a gaming device. Still spends much more time on the 360, Wii, and even the DS. His commitment to gaming on the Touch is pretty unintense, similar to his feeling about those stupid Flash game sites on his laptop. When he’s gaming on our other platforms it is evidently (from watching him) a more intense and immersive experience.

    Just bought my wife an iPad 32 and she’s been pretty much hogging it in the first week, but it’ll be interesting to see if the larger screen makes it more compelling as a gaming device. As someone who does a little PC gaming myself (still occasionally open up Oblivion, what a great game!), I am not seeing anything for iPad/Touch that is grabbing me. But it’s early yet.

  • spark09223

    Wow. Really? You guys are so ridiculous.

    1. DVD/BR: The iPad will NOT kill DVD/BR market as long as it cannot efficiently deliver HD video (which it totally cannot.) When the HDTV has become so widespread, people will always want HD contents. There is no way iPad can provide this. Will it hurt the DVD/BR sales? Yes. But no way it will “kill” it.

    [Well you just injected BluRay out of thin air, so don't act like I was making the argument about iTunes have BR-compeititive HD. Of course, BR is not a mainstream phenomenon, but a rather weak niche product that was far less successful than it was expected to be, so to say it needs killing is a bit much.]

    2. Textbooks. NO FREAKING WAY. You clearly haven’t talked to students about this. No one can afford to buy the iPad or e-textbooks. When students can barely afford tuition, they are not going to go out and buy e-textbooks which are just as expensive as paper versions AND are not re-sellable. There are plenty of used textbooks which are less than half the price of a new one. Plus, you have to buy the $500 iPad. So, whether you like it or not, textbooks aren’t going anywhere.

    [I believe they also said that about a lot of other things that quickly went extinct. Because everyone knows, prices never change in relation to market disruption.]

    3. Office. I just laughed at this point. Really? Even Apple-loving techblogs say that word-processing on the iPad is just not productive. No matter how good Apple’s touchscreen is, the input method on the iPad is still far less efficient than keyboard + mouse (in terms of word processing). Just try typing a simple 500 word-long letter on that thing (yes, I have tried on my friend’s iPad because I was thinking of getting one). No way it will kill Office as we know it.

    [iPad supports physical keyboards. And while iWork does need some refinement, it is already much more productive in many respects than mousing around. Microsoft's share of productivity apps in mobile devices is about to plummet, please check back with me in a year or two to acknowledge I was right or demand an apology .]

    4. Paper. Again, I laugh. This is what people said when laptops started getting commonplace. There are so many cases where the law requires that a document be printed on a real paper, and it won’t change for a while. So, in most workplaces, the paper isn’t going anywhere.

    [When people said they were coming for horses and buggies, I said nothing because I did not ride horses and buggies. When they came for gas lamps and candles, I said nothing because I did not use lamps and candles. Then they came for paper and I could say nothing because I hadn't learned to use iPad.]

    5. Gaming. Yes, the iPhone OS has potential to be a great gaming platform. But the iPhone/iPod Touch will carry most of the weight as a gaming device. Just think of the size of the iPad. It’d be incredibly awkward to hold that thing to play a game. There’s a reason why all the portable gaming devices were small (Gameboy, Gameboy Advance, DS, DSL, PSP…). Because that makes sense for a portable device. Yes, there could be games that makes use of the large(r) screen real estate. But then, the input methods limit its potential. It’s too big to hold up for games, but then the only other option is to put it flat down on a surface. Not so appealing for games.

    [The reason Gameboys and PSPs are small is because the screen is a major part of the component expense, and nobody can expect users to pay $500 or more just for a games machine. But when you have a multipurpose device with other attractions, and it also plays games, you now have a way to sell it as a games machine and actually expect people to buy it.

    Consider the PC; you can't market a console competitive with a $4000 gamer PC, but that doesn't mean that high end PCs are too big and fancy to play games.

    Recall that the iPhone and iPod touch (which irate readers were insisting just a few years ago would never be games machines) were $4-500 and up not too long ago, and yet they have become popular for playing games as you acknowledge, despite the fact that the DS and PSP are much cheaper. Anticipate that things will change more than you can imagine and a whole new world of potential will open up for you - Dan]

  • huntm856

    @Dan re: [Please share your normal version of the mainstream everyman with us so we can appreciate your average mediocrity. - Dan]

    Haha, you are so so witty.

    But seriously, your ad hominem reply quite elegantly illustrates my point.

    Applephiles commonly express exactly the superciliousness about their products of choice and, indeed, the superiority of their aesthetics in comparison to those of the hoi polloi as you expressed in just a few words. I get it, we are all cretins who simply don’t have the intellectual and aesthetic wherewithal to grasp the marvelousness of your unicorn-horn-powder- and fairy-dust-sprinkled magical products. Like prophets in the wilderness, only with a greater admixture of disdain than compassion, you seek to guide us, to lead us. But one day, through efforts of stalwarts such as yourself, we will all see the light.

    As I said, you guys live in your own little alternate universe.

  • huntm856

    Oops, accidentally inserted a space in one of my formatting tags. I guess Steve decided we don’t need an edit button here.

  • huntm856

    Maybe he’ll change his mind and introduce one as a wonderful new feature in a couple of years.

  • gctwnl

    Related: Seeking Alpha about why Apple is great. Nice summary. Dan wil agree, I guess.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/198613-the-power-of-apple?source=yahoo

  • Pingback: Miltä maailma näyttää iPadin saavuttua | Takapiha()

  • cc_

    I registered just to chime in here…
    First – you’re a pretty damn good writer, Dan. I like your style a lot.
    Second – if this article is to be taken at face value, then it’s clear that you’re more than just a little bit deluded.
    You’ve got some really good points in there – but they’re kind of lost amongst this other pile of illogical leaps.
    Someday… maybe… a fully-realized iPad could be the mighty destroyer of things obsolete that you describe here… but for the moment… it’s a swing and a miss.
    Still like your writing though… but maybe don’t be such a douche to those who disagree with you? Or do… whatever. Keep up the good work.

    [I don't write to an audience of idiots. People who read my stuff are for the most part pretty smart. So when I exaggerate or joke, they usually get it. When in doubt that I'm being a little sarcastic or using hyperbole to make a point, error on the side of your intellect, not on the side of heart attack-serious emotionalism. And when you think I'm being a douche, again, think of the intended audience and consider that maybe that's what I should be doing. - Dan]

  • nelsonart

    Great stuff. I agree with all the kills. I think Office is going to be killed by its own mediocrity and new ‘in-the-cloud’ apps and even a touch of Apple’s iWork goodies. But I appreciated the nice leap. I truly do not understand why people are clinging to DVD and defending it so staunchly. I was amused to see you later refer to them as plastic circles. That’s all they are. What’s the point of carrying around plastic circles!

    Since you interjected politics into the comments sections, I’d like to just say that I have zero confidence that Obama’s massive tax hikes are going to rejuvenate this economy. From our perspective of seeing the financial lives of several hundred clients, it’s going to be a painful realization that we cannot tax ourselves to prosperity.

    Obama’s a nice guy, but swinging daggers at people pulling the wagon while more are piling in is not going to end well.

    Your ability to write such insightful articles on technology does not square with your worldview in other areas. It just stumps me to no end.

    There will be no changing of minds, so I’ll leave it at that. I did want a response on one thing that you might have left out in your well-rounded graveyard: Apple’s own MacbookPros.

    I ordered 4 iPads w/ 3G. Great news for Apple. I can’t believe I spent that much money on a product I haven’t seen or touched. But what interests me is what was replaced in that order. My parents were going to get an MBPro. So was a client of mine. My parents are sticking with the iMac in the kitchen and iPad for everything else. My client went with an iMac/iPad combo, forgoing a MBPro. And I bought myself and my son an iPad and at this point, will wait and see if it has the goods to replace my desire for a MBPro.

    So that’s a few iPad sales and iMac sales and a few lost MBPro sales. I’ve seen a few other discussion boards parrot this same story. I wonder how many laptops will be sacrificed for this shiny new toy.

    That’s not to say I think Apple will suffer. After all, the iPad can and will be updated far more aggressively. As soon as they add a camera, my old one is going on Craigslist.

    I’m sure MBPro sales will be strong, but not as strong as without the iPad carving into them.

    One more thing, I have 2 boys. They are playing the DS less and less and the iPod touches more and more. They are 8 and 10. Nintendo has a huge thing with the Mario and Pokemon franchises. But even they are no match to thousands of new, free or very inexpensive games.

  • djncjd

    Seriously, who’s a “Windows Enthusiast”? I’ve never seen one. Just because Apple users make a religion out of their brand loyalty, it doesn’t mean anyone else does.

    In any case, I’ve been hearing that Apple is on the verge of killing everyone else for the last 30 years, but not only has it never happened, it took hated Microsoft’s influx of capital to save it from extinction.

    [Judging from your ridiculous comment, your MSN email address, and your absurdly revisionist understanding of history, I'd suggest you look in a mirror to discover the Windows Enthusiast nearest you. - Dan]

  • kdaeseok

    iPad to replace DS?
    No.
    Pokemon.

  • brew57

    That point on the death of Android doesn’t seem to be playing out in retrospect?

  • http://internetmacmarketing.com TimatIMM

    Generally good article, but I find your remarks about segregation offensive. I grew up in Gary, Indiana at a time when the demographic makeup of the city was changing, and I can assure you that segregation is anything but “dead.” There may be a measure of integration in San Francisco, but I would argue that SF is an exception rather than the rule. The tendency to segregate is a part of human nature, and that’s one thing you can’t outlaw.

  • brew57

    >>I find your remarks about segregation offensive.

    I find that you have to read Dilger’s articles while holding your nose. I still read him, because he does have interesting things to say on the tech/apple stuff, but each time he strays into politics or non-tech issues, I find him generally out-of-his-league and, worse, offensive.

    [I would certainly hope that enemies of Civil Rights and supporters of segregation would find me "offensive" for laying out how ridiculous their heros are, just as I wouldn't want to find a bunch of Nazis, KKK, or militant religious fundamentalists (muslim or christian) nodding in agreement to anything I write.

    What a pathetic stance to take. I pity your children. - Dan ]