Daniel Eran Dilger in San Francisco
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iPad, the destroyer: 19 things it will kill

Daniel Eran Dilger

Pundits, particularly of the Windows Enthusiast variety, don’t understand the iPad. It won’t kill the netbook and certainly can’t kill the notebook, they tell us. If only they knew what the iPad was really meant to destroy.

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Steve Jobs likes to kill old things

Back in the 1970s, Steve Jobs pushed his Apple co-founder to kill the expansion slots of the Apple II. Steve Wozniac fought to retain them, but by 1984, Apple was selling lots of machines without slots, including the Apple IIc and the Macintosh. They supplied easier to use ports instead, so users didn’t have to buy a serial expansion card just to plug in their printer.

Jobs killed the 5.25“ floppy drive by introducing the 3.5” floppy on the Macintosh, then killed it off too in the 1998 iMac, telling users to burn CDs or use the network. The iMac also killed off a variety of old legacy ports to capitalize on the premise of Intel’s USB.

In software, Jobs killed off the command-line with the Macintosh only to return to it with NeXTSTEP, but its rich graphic desktop meant users only went there when they wanted to, not when their graphical shell abandoned them in the dark wilderness of DOS at inopportune times. Jobs didn’t kill the CLI, he kill its necessity for all users.

Read Jobs’ more personal musings from the early 80s through the 90s and into the last decade, and you get the clear impression that Jobs understands death as a creative force better than most people. For society, culture, and technology to progress, old thinking has to die off to make way for fresh new ideas. People who don’t die are dragged kicking and screaming in the future the way Strom Thurmond panted into the last decade with segregation still ripe on his breath.

Jobs has uniquely, and remarkably, kept pace with radical changes in technology to maintain a position on the progressive front fringe of tech like no other figure in history. Nobody else has been around for nearly 40 years of progress, continuously leading major companies that define how the world works, and with a finger in everything from the enterprise to education to consumer markets.

A reason to kill

When something works, you don’t need to kill it. But in some cases you should, as Jobs proved time and time again over his career. The iPod Mini was wildly popular, but Apple cut it down at its apex to introduce the Flash RAM iPod nano, which was even smaller and more durable.

Apple could also have mostly sacrificed its iPod business in order to gain the larger and much more lucrative iPhone, but it didn’t do that. Instead, it killed the old idea of what the iPod was: a big hard drive wrapped in a layer of simple user interface for choosing songs from a list.

In its place, it created the iPod touch, which carried on the torch of the iPod brand while slowly phasing out the old identity of the iPod. This is fantastically difficult to do. One only needs to look at companies like Palm and Nokia and Microsoft and Sony to see how much easier it is for even large groups of smart people to take a successful product and let it either die on the vine or fail midway through attempts to revitalize it.

Apple, with Jobs at the helm, has so expertly pulled off massive coups over and over that everyone in the media has been lulled into thinking that this sort of thing is simple stuff that you just plan out and then do by throwing money around, apparently unaware that Sony and Microsoft and Palm and everyone else has had lots of time and money to do what Apple has done over the last decade. They just don’t know how to do it.

The iPad prepares for a killing spree

Apple isn’t about to destroy its MacBook business, which has been expanding dramatically over the last half decade. And it didn’t introduce the iPad to kill off the iPhone or iPod touch. Successfully creating something new without sacrifice is all that much harder to do. It will require Apple to kill off interest in rival things of its competitor’s in order to allow the iPad to inhale the attention spans of consumers that those devices were once consuming.

TV killed off the radio. The CD killed off the audio cassette. DVDs killed off VCRs. The Internet has helped to kill off a variety of things that used to make sense before it, from travel agents to directory assistance operators (if you don’t think those things are dead, you probably are getting fairly old). And so it is that the iPad will kill a lot of stuff.

DVDs. Steve Jobs’ hobby of Apple TV set up a market for immediate movie rentals and purchases via iTunes. That’s still there, but the iPad now delivers the same functionality with wireless mobility, in addition to the value of everything else it does (and unlike the fixed, limited features of ATV). Additionally, iPad also supports services like Hulu and Netflix, which will appeal to a wide audience of users who already use those services. Why do we own DVD’s again? Dead.

eReaders. Oh the Kindle, we hardly knew ye. And the Sony Reader and the B&N Nook. Your e-ink screens pleased pundits and the cat ladies who sit around reading novel after novel, but it was a remarkably limited technology. The rest of your hardware and software was pretty marginal, so it’s hard to weep. Dead.

Stacks of papers in office meetings. Xerox dutifully churns through forests of trees to create documents that will only ever be glanced at once, if that. Greenpeace doesn’t care, because making a stink won’t help it get donations. All the group can be bothered to announce is that the iPad might access servers that sit on the predominantly coal-fired US electrical grid. Stupid jerks. Anyways, every company that is somebody will be passing around iPads loaded with digital documents. Companies are already ordering fleets of iPads, for the same reason their executives sport MacBook Pros: they say “we’re creative and use high quality stuff.” Reams of papers: you’re dead.

Textbooks. Kindle suggested some hope that kids wouldn’t need to be busting their little necks with backpacks full of massive paper volumes of static learning content. But Kindle’s e-ink technology isn’t any good at random page browsing or quickly jumping back and forth between sections. It’s also painful to mark up with annotations. The iPad has none of those problems, and adds all manner of new interactivity and video features, making it a good decade for trees. Short term, thick tomes of rapidly changing educational content: you’re dead.

Netbooks. Oh Dan, you’re so controversial. Netbooks are an amazingly cheap way to get low powered, junky hardware that can even run Linux if anyone cared to. You can type into a word processor, play moron-level Flash weblet games, and even surf the web. Yeah but you can’t enjoy the experience. Netbooks, you’ll only live on in that you’ve already killed of the desktop PC, but your wildly hyped premise? It’s dead.

PSP, DS. Oh no, now you’re just being mean. Think of the children. No, let the children think for themselves. Who wants to shell out $30-50 for a dopey game title when you can download cool $1-5 games to your iPod touch on a regular basis or get rich, major games from big publishers for $6-12 on the iPad? They’re beautiful, wildly interactive, and are going to slay Nintendo and Sony in the portable gaming market. Nintendo’s boss says he doesn’t get the iPad. That’s executive speak for “I’m going down with the ship.” The correct answer was: “We’re creating iPad titles based on our beloved franchises as fast as we can.” Ya’ll are dead.

Brochures. You walk into a Mercedes dealership or begin talking to a real estate agent about that multi-million dollar property and they used to hand you a glossy printed brochure. Screw that. Now you’re going to be handed a digitally interactive version of the product on an iPad you can peruse as the sales expert tugs at your heart strings. They send you a link to look at at home, too. Sold. Glossy print? Dead.

Single-purpose industrial gadgets. Custom developed information systems that cost the government millions to develop in small scale batches. Inventory systems that use some clunky old version of the Windows Mobile platform Microsoft itself just marked for death in its effort to clone the iPhone of 2008 in WP7 next year. Proprietary medical management and note-taking systems, sometimes based on (ugh it stinks) Tablet PC. Category, you could have been a short list unto yourself, but it doesn’t matter because you’re all dead.

Other tablet-ish stuff. Yes, I already mentioned Tablet PC, but this catch-all bucket of death is about the consumer market. This stuff historically kills itself: Palm’s whatever, Nokia Tablets, CrunchPad, UMPC, Slate PC. Along with the death of all this stuff comes the death of Microsoft’s ability to decree what devices are called. It doesn’t make anything anyone wants to buy, so why is it defining all the ridiculous category names? HHPC, UMPC, PMP, really? Microsoft, your leadership in consumer electronics is just like your products and those of Palm and the rest of them: dead.

The credibility of haters. People who earn their livelihood by saying stupid things about Apple, either because they’re shills for a rival firm or because they generate more web traffic staying stupid things about Apple than saying stupid things about another company people care less about, are going to find it remarkably difficult to prattle off more of the same garbage they’ve trotted out repeatedly about the iPhone, the iPod touch, and the iPad. John Dvorak, Daniel Lyons, Paul Thurrott, etc, ad nauseum aren’t going to be able to be taken seriously at Apple’s next launch. But those people aren’t being taken seriously now; the real change will be that fraud marketing and public relations groups who prepare “data” showing how uninterested developers report themselves being in Apple’s next platform, or how terribly worried customers are about not having Flash, or whatever other synthetic results the fact-factory was paid to deliver are simply increasingly and obviously going to be seen as an ineffectual waste of marketing resources. Dead.

Flash and Silverlight and JavaFX. What if Apple created a significant new category of computing devices and connected it to its installed base of 70 million mobile devices, and none of it ran Flash nor Silverlight nor JavaFX? Why would anyone bother to learn that stuff? To deprive Android of having any native apps? To keep performance from rocketing out of control? To expand the required development efforts and QA by orders of magnitude, with no commercial payoff? Dead.

Office. Wait, how does the iPad kill Office? Well, much as the revitalized Mac OS X first proved that, even post-2000, it was possible to create and maintain a software platform mostly independent from Microsoft, and as iPhone established that Apple could successfully introduce a major new platform not based on Windows and Intel chips and turn it into a an important force in mobile software, the iPad is now merging those realities toward Office in a threatening way. Microsoft struggled to launch Vista and it failed to keep WiMo going, but it still seems to be full steam ahead for its Office monopoly. But no, there’s no hint of a multitouch version of Office similar to Apple’s new $10 iWork apps. Apple has beat Microsoft to market again, before its rival even realized it was in trouble of losing anything. Microsoft’s comical Pocket and Mobile versions of Office are embarrassing, and the company hasn’t demonstrated any ability to copy the iPhone or the iPod touch successfully, so what hope is there for a Microsoft tablet or a mobile-savvy port of its currently very PC-centric Office suite? Microsoft doesn’t even have any financial motivation to port Office to the iPad, given the$10 per app threshold Apple set. Dead.

Windows Media Center, set top boxes, Tivo. Microsoft kept flogging the idea of having a command center for recorded TV sitting on your family PC that you can push to your Xbox 360 to watch on your TV. Uptake has been weak enough to keep it free bundleware. But who’d want that when they’re already using iTunes, have iPods and iPhones, and can watch live streaming content or their own library of stuff or movies or episodic TV they can buy on demand, from anywhere? Sony’s trying to push the PS3 as a hub for content, and Tivo has been hemorrhaging cash trying to maintain enough subscribers in competition with the cable company’s own boxes. Apple’s the only company with the mobile part figured out, with an anywhere download store, and brilliant ease of use. There’s a lot of living room stuff that’s ending up… dead.

Idle moments. Remember when you used to sit in the park, lost in your lover’s eyes? Now you’re both busy checking messages on your iPhone. Just wait until you get an iPad and you can lock the screen so it won’t flip annoyingly as you try to lie in bed, half awake reading the latest headlines. Now you’ll have a fixed, big screen display giving you bleary-eyed access to all the information that used to stay attached to your desktop computer. The times you spent doing nothing are all now dead.

Chrome OS. Oh noes! Yes, if you thought Google had another year to complete its tablet strategy, you were wrong. By the time the first beta of its HTML-with-Flash only platform ships, the iPad will have a strong installed base and there’ll have been months of iPad adoration in play. How does a simplistic yet expensive web-tablet compare with a sophisticated iPad platform with real media playback (even Android’s fake iPod module is atrocious), real games (not just Farmville), and a vast collection of native software that nobody will have any financial motivation to port to generic ad-supported web pages or Flash apps just to address the slim potential for Google to sell tablets better than it’s been selling smartphones? It’s not here yet, but its going to arrive… dead.

Android. Oh dear, now you’re really going out on a limb. Sure, Android will stick around just like Creative still makes MP3 players and just like AOL is still a going concern, but it will increasingly fail to matter because nothing is holding it up. Apple has three anchors for the iPhone OS, each holding down very different markets and audiences: the iPhone, iPod touch and iPad. They’re suspending the platform like a big tent in the App Store. Android has one trick, and its a mess. The phone hardware wasn’t designed right, the OS has architectural problems, and the app model presents major security issues. All customers care about is what it can do. But Android can’t play sophisticated games, nor is anyone buying enough apps to turn that situation around. Further, Google’s tablet strategy is splintered on Chrome OS. Secretly, that’s because Google doesn’t believe in the future of the Android platform, at least not in its current incarnation as a modified Java VM. The company hopes to migrate its users to HTML apps across the board, so it doesn’t even care that Android Market is losing the battle against the Cocoa Touch App Store. That’s a few reasons why its soon going to be… dead.

Prospects for Windows Phone 7. In 2006, Microsoft unveiled the Zune, thinking it has soundly beat Apple’s 2005 iPod in a number of areas. Then just months later, Apple dropped the iPhone. This time around, Microsoft is striving to achieve a measure of parity with 2008′s iPhone 2.0. The problem this time is that Apple has iPhone 4.0, the fourth generation iPhone and iPod touch, and iPad. How is WP7 going to look relevant or interesting? Dead.

In-flight entertainment systems. Remember the luxury that seat back video screens used to suggest? These days, the early ones look archaic; smaller than an iPod touch. Even the more modern ones are clumsy and look terrible and limit your viewing angles and are likely to not work right. If it does happen to be working, the interface is ridiculous, the buttons barely function, and the content plays at weird times or demands that you pay stupidly high fees just to watch a movie. The iPad is perfect for using in the confines of a plane. It doesn’t need the space of a laptop and works a lot longer. It has a much larger display than a netbook, and its more fun to watch than a iPod or iPhone. Why fool around with some generic junk that may or may not be installed or working when you can ignore that and just relax? Seat backs: dead.

Google’s ad monopoly. With all the revenues it collects from its monopoly, it throws around money on acquisitions and often failed projects. No, not Microsoft in the PC world, it’s Google on the web. Google seems to have earned its position, but the reality is that Google got its lock on the market even more heinously than Microsoft. The company owes its entire existence to stealing the core business of Overture, something that’s no secret but also rarely mentioned these days. After Yahoo acquired Overture, Google paid Yahoo millions in stock to settle the matter, which not only kept Yahoo around as an inconsequential figurehead in search, but also allowed its incompetent management the largess to squander Overture until its talent all ran off to Google and Microsoft. Also like Microsoft, Google ripped off its former partner Apple in hopes of stealing what Apple had invented. But this time around, Apple is playing offensively by moving into the ad market itself. It plans to launch its own ad network and integrate it right into the Cocoa Touch tools, making it that much harder for Google to sell mobile ads (which are currently pretty dysfunctional anyway), the whole reason it got started with Android. If Google is just stuck servicing Android, a group of freetards who refuse to pay for things, who will want to advertise there? Dead.

174 comments

1 Per { 04.02.10 at 2:41 am }

It’ll be interesting to see if anyone pulls the old “Hey I can get a Dell for half the price of [insert Apple product name] with better specs.”

2 iax { 04.02.10 at 2:49 am }

DVD dead? Getting DVD quality content from iTunes is many many years away. CD aren’t dead either, after all vinyl isn’t dead-thanks God. Of course, not many people cares about HiFi audio or video.

Staying in the same tune, building a meaningful digital collection with no analog back-up means you’ll be left empty-handed some day soon. How dumb would one feel when all his kid’s early childhood pictures are lost forever? Buy your favourite DVDs (or even better, Blue Ray DVDs) and CD audio albums and print the best of your photos (i n a d d i t i o n to usual digital back-ups).

3 jomi { 04.02.10 at 2:57 am }

@Per: Well… would be nice to see them do an iPad clone for $249… :D
But of course, all other companies have to pay much more for flash memory than Apple because Apple buys such vast quantities.

4 jaypres { 04.02.10 at 3:12 am }

Oh, you forgot to mention that iPad kills Flash once and for all. iPhone and iPod Touch just shake its foundation. iPad nails the coffin.

5 pixelkisser { 04.02.10 at 3:37 am }

Fair enough, but TV did not kill off the radio. That was a stupid thing to say.

6 SamLowry { 04.02.10 at 3:57 am }

point 20: harddisks.
The costs of Flash memory is driven down so dramatically by iPhone, iPod and now, even more so by iPad, that sooner or later, all Macbooks will have SSDs as standard configuration. PCs will follow.

7 rufustfirefly { 04.02.10 at 4:38 am }

Thanks for the reminder regarding Strom Thurmond. Of course, he was no Robert Byrd, former Minority Leader of the Democrat Party in the Senate, who was a Grand Kleagle in the Ku Klux Klan. All forgotten now by 50% of the country. Or the fact that the Democrat Party provided the bulk of the opposition to Civil Rights including of course, its defense of Slavery, where the Republican Party was the party fighting for abolition. The cultural DNA still exists, where the current Democrat Party operates the plantations called the “inner cities” where minorities are “kept” uneducated, living in crime, and trained to expect nothing more than “government handouts” as the best that they can achieve. All efforts of the Democrats are to keep the Plantation operating, delivering the majority of its votes to the machine, while freedom is never delivered. The new evolution of Strom Thurmond – the Democrat Party and the permanent welfare state plantation. Get in line for your “gubmint cheese” – we will take care of you (yeah right)

[I am tempted, for the first time, to simply strike the majority of your comment for being not just irrelevant, but completely ignorant. I didn't mention Thrumond's political affiliation, but you don't seem to understand what it was. Yes, there are plenty of old Democrats from an era so long ago that their views are shockingly archaic in terms of progressive values, but the simplistic "D vs R" charade you attempt to set up is flat wrong.

Your characterization of Civil Rights as being something Republicans pushed for with Democratic opposition is, itself, a wrongheaded idea. The fact that Lincoln freed slaves in the middle of the 1800s has no relevance to our decade, because the parties have repeatedly changed to the point of being unrecognizable.

In fact, Strom Thurmond was originally, like the majority of the South before 1964, Democratic (and you should know this). But he changed to the Republican party after the South did too in the mid to late 60's, largely in response to racist whites' hatred for Civil Rights legislation passed by JFK and LBJ.

It was Republican president Eisenhower who sponsored the landmark 1957 and 1960 Civil Rights Acts, which was met by "Democratic footdragging." Thurmond supported racial segregation with the longest filibuster ever conducted by a single senator in the Civil Rights Act of 1957, despite the law being rather weak. By 1960, 18 Southern Democrats were filibustering the bill.

But JFK's Civil Rights Act of 1964 (which actually made racial discrimination and segregation illegal), was signed by an LBJ fully aware that it would cause the Democratic Party to lose its political power in the South.

Sure enough, Thurmond became a Republican in 1964, and helped Nixon win the South for a Republican president in 1968 (the first time since Reconstruction), all using the "Southern Strategy" that aligned white supremacist's hatred as a political force to serve the needs of big business. That remains today, as the South continues to be predominantly Red.

"States Rights" is a Southern Republican euphemism for outrage over the Federal Government prohibiting their cherished slavery and apartheid. But that's slowly changing as old people there moderate slightly and die off. - Dan ]

8 DesperateDan { 04.02.10 at 4:40 am }

Fair enough, but TV did not kill off the radio. That was a stupid thing to say.
No it wasn’t. Before TV arrived, evening entertainment consisted of entire families gathering around the radio to listen to popular shows. When was the last time your family did that?

9 schmiddi { 04.02.10 at 4:42 am }

i think the one thing the ipad might resurrect is the desktop … why? well you won’t really need a laptop anymore, but you still might need a powerful, larger screen device for writing, photo and video editing. getting an ipad + an iMac will cost as much as getting a macbook pro but ultimately you will have more computing power with the combination of the ipad and iMac. plus access to a larger screen …

10 fring { 04.02.10 at 4:44 am }

Wow
That’s a hefty dose of schadenfreude Dan and my Kenyan AA tasted all the better for it.
Sorry, but can’t agree about radio, at least here in the UK where the good old Beeb flies the flag excellence on a daily basis and Jazz FM powers my sanity filter.
@SamLowry… agreed, HDs will be dead when Apple’s data centre is up and running.

11 rufustfirefly { 04.02.10 at 5:03 am }

Our family gathers around the radio every weeknight. All that is on TV is mindless garbage. On the radio we get to hear Mark Levin, author of Liberty and Tyranny. Funny, smart, entertaining. It’s great. Popcorn and Mark Levin – maybe a cheeseburger. Our TV is much closer to dying that our radio. We have updated the radio with internet access – which eliminates static. We tune in via the computer. And we don’t have to watch the mindless drivel put out by the networks and Hollywood that pretends to be entertainment. Maybe if Steve Jobs would reinvent Hollywood this would change – but for now, as John Prine said, “Blow Up Your TV” – not your radio. How would you then get Mark Levin, The Great One?

12 broadbean { 04.02.10 at 5:10 am }

So you wrote the cloning piece instead of this one for April Fool’s Day? Nah, better kill off a whole bunch of stuff on Easter Friday… Can’t wait for your Easter Monday Miracle Edition. ;)

13 ChuckO { 04.02.10 at 5:54 am }

@rufustfirefly 6, except now all those old prejudiced, southern Dems are the core of the GOP.

14 ChuckO { 04.02.10 at 6:00 am }

Apple is the light in the fog of hopelessness that is American business at this point. They are one of the few remaining companies that do it the old fashioned way. Think of great products you’d want for yourself and build them. They also have avoided the fate of many of our other once great and COOL businesses (Levi’s, the car companies) that lost their souls in a race to the bottom and making products that suck.

15 rufustfirefly { 04.02.10 at 6:26 am }

ChuckO

Wrong. Robert Byrd is still in the Senate, accepted despite his Ku Klux Klan past. Obama just killed a Wash DC inner city school voucher program that offered the benefits of private schools to poor urban DC children. Democrats like the “private” option for their kids, but prefer to send the plantation children to Government schools, where the lessons are simple, like the Democrat view of the needs of inner city children. Sixty years of being run by the NEA and Democrat policy, refusal to even consider private competition and vouchers, and the Democrats keep the people on the plantation, with their annointed jail keepers, those leading lights of intellectual freedom, Al Sharpton, Jesse Jackson and Lewis Farrahkan.

Democrats have all the history opposing black freedom, they don’t tolerate any diversity of black thought. And they don’t tolerate true challenging education being offered to inner city blacks – the kind of education the Democrats insist on for their own kids.

16 iLogic { 04.02.10 at 6:40 am }

Apple is adding an incredible amount of value to its ecosystem that it is staggering to the competition. Meanwhile new users are flocking to the new platform making it harder for competitors to sustain a successful plan of attack, especially one modeled directly after Apple. I do believe Apple has an opportunity with the iPad that goes beyond just the App Store and media centric developments. Namely the selling of more Macs. The iPad still needs a computer to synchronize to iTunes and that’s exactly why Apple should get more competitive on hardware pricing. So that people who get iPads don’t go out and buy more PCs. This time around the iPad is not just for Mac users, and with an increased interest in switchers, the price of the Macintosh needs more tuning. Dan, this will be huge.

17 TheMacAdvocate { 04.02.10 at 6:56 am }

Google also loses in the short term by having a device that is single-window focused like the iPad gain mass appeal. As I think you pointed out in another article, people tend not to click through ads on their iPhone. The same should apply to the iPad.

18 gplawhorn { 04.02.10 at 7:09 am }

“Kill” is a little strong. Even netbooks (may they all crash and burn!) won’t be “killed” by the iPad, if for no other reason than Apple-hate. Apple needs its competition, otherwise it wouldn’t be Apple. Yes, Microsoft *copies* Apple. But Apple then purposefully distances itself well ahead of Microsoft, which works to our (the users’) advantage.

19 notte { 04.02.10 at 7:16 am }

Intresting article, like your perspective, philosophic. “He not busy being born is busy dying”; Bob Dylan.

20 FreeRange { 04.02.10 at 7:24 am }

@rufustfirefly – Dude, get a life. And get an education while you’re at it, or is your head too far up your rectum! In case you hadn’t noticed, our Democrat president is black. Duh!!!!!

21 rufustfirefly { 04.02.10 at 7:39 am }

Free Range – yep he is black (1/2). And he personally killed the Wash DC school voucher program because the Democrats are owned the NEA teachers union – which promotes job security and destroying competition versus the well being of the inner city children. And the black president, and the Democrats, who operate on the belief that private industry is bad and therefore needs to be regulated and or taken over, have inflicted huge increases in unemployment . He promised 8% unemployment based on passing his trillion dollar stimulus package. Unemployement has is 25% higher than that now. This unemployment hurts the poor the most. So, it is possible for a black president to preside over destruction of the American dream for Blacks. Obama is doing that. Check out Detroit and Cleveland – run by Democrats for decades. That will be the US. Car jacking is the major industry left in Detroit. So, Free Range – get your head out of the droid mode and begin to use some critical thinking. High taxes, enormous regulation, government run monopoly schools, government mandated purchase decisions, the state seizure of the student loan industry, the state seizure of 2/3 of the American auto industry, the demonization of the Financial, Pharmaceutical, Manufacturing, Energy, Insurance and other industries – these are stupid, destructive, and purely Democrat initiatives. And they hurt Black people, White people, OSX people, Microsoft people.

[Kent you need critical thinking skills and less adoration of extremist right wing talking points.

It was Bush who destroyed he economy, and who bailed out banks who created the mess due to deregulation. It was Bush who left the US deeply in debt by refunding $1.4 TRILLION to taxes to the richest of the rich while doing nothing for the middle class for 8 years. It was Bush who started the illegal occupation of Iraq at the cost of $4 TRILLION.

And thanks for the laugh, it's simply comical when old republicans try to speak of blacks and the poor as people they care about. Republicans have done nothing but obstruct progress like the ghost of Strom Thurmond and taunt the president with racist memes.

Republicans are bankrupt on ideas. All they have is ignorant gibber-jabber leveraging race and religion and hate to manipulate people to vote for the interests of large, government subsidized corporations. It is no longer a legitimate political party. Which is bad, because the US needs at least two parties that function. - Dan ]

22 jkundert { 04.02.10 at 8:09 am }

Love the title, Daniel. That alone gave me a big smile to start the morning!

23 Aframe { 04.02.10 at 8:16 am }

The iPad will kill the desktop PC. It will also kill office desks. You will still need a chair.

If all of your email is on your iPad, if all of your resources – notes, calendars, addresses – are on your iPad and you have iWork apps, why bother going to a desk or a desktop PC?

Remember that one of the main points of the Xerox Parc, Macintosh and later Windows OS was that with a mouse, you could move a pointer on a screen, “almost as if you were pointing at it with your finger”. Now the iPad has removed that final caveat. Not WYSIWYG, (what you see is what you get) but “what you point at is what you select”.

As iPad apps develop, new ways will be found to make that human interface even more direct, and desktops, keyboards and mice will all eventually seem like unnecessary obstacles to getting your work done.

BTW, what happened to all those “why the iPad will FAIL” articles?

24 ChuckO { 04.02.10 at 8:18 am }

Don’t feed the troll! ie rufustfirefly. He’s just here to hijack the sight with his ideological BS.

25 martimus { 04.02.10 at 8:21 am }

@rufustfirefly, Never argue with a pig, they are shorter and less intelligent than you, and they will drag you down to their level, wallering you around in the mud. Pigs love the mud, but you just get dirty. History is not the strong suit of the “Me, Now, Everything You’ve Got” pigs.

26 rufustfirefly { 04.02.10 at 8:57 am }

Daniel left the Easter Egg – the cheap shot at Strom Thurmond. Had to respond.

27 BrianSt { 04.02.10 at 9:21 am }

Great article Dan. I agree with most of your dead products walking. A few misses though.

Brochures – these are still valuable for distributing to people you will never see. My very 21 century wired and virtual non-profit is now producing brochures to leave in targeted high-traffic areas (Apple Store strategy) to capture the interest of people we would never have the manpower to greet, loan an iPad to, and sell to.

Word – I think you meant the Office monopoly. Just like Google and the netbook, Word et al. will always be with us but people that never imagined being without Office will start using iWork and realize that Office is not necessary. That is if iWork is up to the task.

Android – I don’t see how Android will fail as long as a large % of the manufactures and operators need SOMETHING to feed to smartphone consumers. Windows has imploded, Palm is running out of cash, Nokia is lost, Android fills that big whole. If Apple executes perfectly and RIM buys and pushes WebOS as their next generation I could see Android plateauing but Moto, HTC, and others need to sell something to Verizon. It is a product that is succeeding by default, not because of inherent qualities, but as long as the need is there if will keep growing. The Android app store could be a big fail however, if every new Android model continues to be incompatible with the last.

28 BrianSt { 04.02.10 at 9:54 am }

@rufusdryfly and friends
We tried the laissez-faire “magical market” approach before. It got us 1929-1932, and then the 2008 meltdown when we tried it again. Ultimate fail. Markets exist BECAUSE of regulation. Ever read about US stock market before the SEC? If you want to prove libertarianism correct, Somalia awaits your investment money.

90%+ of black Americans vote Democratic (there is no “Democrat party”). Are you saying A) They are too stupid/ignorant to know what is good for them, or B) They actively want to be on a “plantation”?

Your comments only leave those to interpretations. Btw, I like in a city, Oakland, with lots of poor people and crime and I am not moving back to the suburb where I grew up because the public school my daughter will attend next year is far better than the suburban schools. It is not even in the top ten “popular” public schools in the city either. So much for your horrible “big city” nightmares; they don’t match 21st century American reality.

29 normdwyer { 04.02.10 at 10:02 am }

I submit two other product categories it will kill off; in-car entertainment systems and all those crappy hardware based kid’s education systems from Leap Frog to Vtech, etc.

30 bOMBfACTORY { 04.02.10 at 10:22 am }

Great article Dan. My hope for the iPad is that by being so useful and so user friendly, it might get people who seem to automatically buy PCs (yeah I’m looking at you, mom and dad) to stop the self-torture they’ve been inflicting on themselves by blindly going with MS-based computers (which seem to fail and need replacement every two years or so) and finally consider buying an Apple product.

Oh, and rufustfirefly, thank you. Now move along.

31 John E { 04.02.10 at 10:30 am }

boy, this may the #1 all-time RDM rant! but Fun!!

first thing i did was check the date at the top to see if it was still April 1.

love crazy over the top stuff like this. and it’s probably about half right, too!

really hope i remember to comet back to it 4/2/11 and see how many of its predictions are actually showing up as major trends by then.

32 rvaillan { 04.02.10 at 10:31 am }

Wormer, he’s a dead man! Marmalard, dead! Niedermeyer–
Otter: Dead!

33 Maniac { 04.02.10 at 10:41 am }

Great article, Daniel. iPad is the next generation of personal computing, and it’s arriving 26 years after Apple introduced the previous generation.

34 addicted44 { 04.02.10 at 10:42 am }

@BrianSt

“Markets exist BECAUSE of regulation”

That is the greatest piece of insight I have heard in a very long time (I am not being sarcastic). That simple statement also completely undermines the current free-market ideas (which are nothing but a parody of what Adam Smith proposed) that are floating around in some of the more powerful circles of government, unfortunately.

What a lot of these free-market extremists fail to recognize is that a market is not a fundamental state of nature, and exists only because governing bodies create, and enforce rules and regulations that allow the markets to exist. Ever heard of cavemen setting up shop?

35 addicted44 { 04.02.10 at 10:47 am }

As far as the iPad is concerned, I agree it is the next generation of computing. It is the moment when computing goes from being the domain of technologically savvy people to the domain of the everyman.

I think Gruber makes the best analogy, with cars (of course…) wherein, cars used to be something people tinkered with, and changed parts in, etc. However, cars have gone well beyond that and I cant remember the last time anyone I know not still in college, looked inside the hoods of their cars.

Initially I really didn’t like the iPad, because this insight (that the computer now needs to be designed with the premise that it is mainstream, as opposed to the idea that it is to be used by tech-savvy people) has taken some time coming.

Gotta give credit to the folks at Apple who saw this coming way before the rest of us.

36 addicted44 { 04.02.10 at 10:57 am }

@John E.

Agreed. I really doubt half of this will be true a few years from now, but the fact is that no one prediction is particularly outlandish. Every one of those have a decent chance of being true.

@Dan

I wish you would do an article examining how the pro-standards, pro-open source, Linux fetishists, have gone completely off their rockers criticizing Apple’s exclusion of Flash and support of the open HTML5 (and others, like CSS and SVG) format.

37 NickBob { 04.02.10 at 11:02 am }

First rate piece. Quibble about radio, dead as leading actor, but lives on as co-starring charactor actor. Would also add that readers who have never watched Jobs graduation day address at Stanford should take the time, he speaks of the great thing that death is, making room for the new in life. It’s much more than that as well, highly rccdmd.

And fake Rufus T, you mention you “had to respond” to DDE’s ‘easter egg’, yet I noted no such response concerning Democratic Party splitter Thurmond (in 1948, as a fucking Dixiecrat against Truman), defending the indefensible too hard for you? Jackass. Oh, and Byrd has long since renounced his membership in and the ideals of the KKK, has worked against their program in Congress and has promoted racial equality for decades now. You wingnuts can forgive and forget ‘errors of youth’ for your own philandering family values types who do not practice for themselves what they preach for others, but somehow when a Democrat works against the errors of his youth that never counts. Groucho Marx would strike you hard for abusing his charactor’s name, Jackass.

38 myatthwin62 { 04.02.10 at 11:13 am }

rufustfirefly,

May I remind you of some Democrats who jumped ship. “When the going gets tough, the toughs get going.”

Reagan, Sessions (?) of Alabama, Spectre (?) of Pennsylvania, etc. Evidently, ‘a leopard CAN change its spots’.

39 myatthwin62 { 04.02.10 at 11:18 am }

Dan,
One of the comments, by iax, makes a lot of sense to me. Plus, the paragraph on office folks passing iPads around instead of paper; well, that’s not going to happen. For one thing, at $500 a crack, the iPad may grow legs and disappear quicker than you can say, “it’s expensive.” Maybe at the real estate office selling multi-million-dollar homes or at dealership selling $100,000 Mercedes Benz M Class (or top of the line of affordable S Class) or BMW 750i’s, they can afford to ‘give away’ or ‘loan’ iPads to serious, serious, serious buyers.

Even at hospitals ($5,000 a day’s stay) they may not be able to afford iPads among the doctors (and nurses) taking in patients’ bio on their rounds. The iPad might run off at quitting time with the ‘lower-paid’ employees, of course. ;-)

Good article though, not all it said is going to happen. DVD, my current storage media, has not alternative. I rather have my files on stable media under my roof rather than on a remote server or ‘cloud’ storage. Besides, I’m a cheapskate and DVD blanks are like, 15 cents for 4.38 gigs – can’t beat that.

40 myatthwin62 { 04.02.10 at 11:30 am }

Speaking of Thurmond (excuse me for talking politics on this hi-tech forum but I didn’t start it), he was a Democrat before jumping ship. And he was a segregationist from the Deep South (South Carolina) but get this; he had an illegitimate daughter by a black woman. Talk about hypocrisy!

41 worker201 { 04.02.10 at 11:41 am }

Seems like a lot of readers are taking the kill/dead metaphor a bit too seriously. I think it’s a great way to think about things, simply because it is so flexible. Radio is dead, and VHS is dead, but they aren’t the same kind of dead. So there’s no reason to think that Android and DVD and brochures will end up in the same place that BetaMax did. I found this article amusing and informative, thanks to a well-played trope.

42 iLogic { 04.02.10 at 11:50 am }

@myatthwin62

You might be right about the iPad in the short term but not the long term. There is no doubt (in my mind at least)that the iPad / tablets will penetrate new sectors and change systems for the next several decades.

43 Orenge { 04.02.10 at 12:10 pm }

@iax

iTunes video didn’t match DVD at first—years ago—but it has offered quality better than DVD for a very long time now. Your information is out of date. (And my digital photos will survive my house burning down thanks to remote backups. My printouts will not.)

44 Extensor { 04.02.10 at 1:12 pm }

I think Dan means dead as in marginalized to the point that they might as well be dead. (For those pro radio comments).

But the real question is…. will it kill off the Amiga and AtariST?

45 MWHebert { 04.02.10 at 1:12 pm }

Dan,

While families didn’t gather around the radio when TV arrived, it did continually expand it’s audience for 80 years (from 1920s) until the time the iPod came out. THAT killed radio as it’s advertising share and it’s audience has shrunk. What TV did kill, temporarily, was Movies. Well, until the 1970s, with Frances Coppola, George Lucas and Steven Spielberg made people come back.

I did need the wake-up as I have (as a 50′s something) been in print design for too long! Good thing I’ve been learning CSS and blog design! But not everything from the past is bad and not everything in the present needs to be killed off and replaced with something new. Just look at our food supply in the US. 50 years ago it was better. Right when TV came in …

Anyway I love your commentaries and keep them comin’.

46 ObamaPacman { 04.02.10 at 1:27 pm }

Wow Dan, bravo. That’s pretty entertaining.

Kill! Kill faster!!!

47 mihomeagent { 04.02.10 at 1:36 pm }

I keep waiting for a lefty like Dan to specify what Bush deregulated in banking. He didn’t. They always point out bills that Clinton signed. And ironically, THOSE bills didn’t destroy the economy. Nor did Bush’s actions. Bills that did, and executive orders that did, sprung from Democratic presidents—Clinton and Carter.

[That's a lie, but if it were true, why didn't Bush do anything in 8 years to fix "problems" that were created in the 70s before Reagan? Bush didn't even show up to work most of the time, and the Texans I met in Austin last month were pretty clear on the fact that Bush wasn't remotely qualified to do any sort of job. He was just a good looking, charismatic moron who presided over a state very rich on old wealth and with no difficult decisions to make. Which is why the GOP found his clone in Alaska to replace him: the kind of ineffectual boob that simple, uneducated fools can rally around.- Dan]

I wonder what tax rebate to the rich Dan is talking about. Bush didn’t do one. He did cut taxes—for everyone. I know it’s a favorite Dem talking point (Obama uses it all the time) to say that Bush cut taxes for the rich. He didn’t cut taxes for the rich—he cut taxes for everyone. The economy grew.

[But the economy didn't grow enough to make up for that $1.4 Trillion bailout for the ultra rich. In fact, compared to Clinton (when no housing bubble occurred, despite a legacy of, as you say, so much existing Carter Policy), there was no real prosperity under Bush at all. Bush failed.

But Bush did spend money dramatically, siphoning off funds to his will connected, ultra rich friends while America fell apart under his watch, from the Army to its internal infrastructure to FEMA to its international reputation. Good job, loser party. Bang up job with the conservative spending, limited government rhetoric. It's all lies.]

I wonder where the Southern Democrats found consolation. The Southern Strategy myth just doesn’t wash. The Republican Party never gave segregationists or racists anything they might have wanted—no anti-civil rights stands, no persecution of blacks or Catholics, no suppression of civil rights. The filibusters against civil rights have come from the Democrats, and the Republican Party overwhelmingly supported the Civil Rights Act of 1964, and the Voting Rights Act (also opposed by a large number of Democrats).

[If you think the "Southern Strategy" is a myth, then you're either a liar or a moron, and I have no interest in arguing with either. Those racist democrats are now republicans, which is why the South is red. Hint: it's not the label that matters, it's who you are and what you do.

And today, the republicans are at the forefront of racism and intolerance of all minorities, whipping up religious fanaticism and inciting violence instead of democratic debate. Disgusting.]

You’re a font of far-left-wing talking points when you go to politics, Dan. The tech analysis is good. The politics–you’re the kind of extremist and cliche and talking-point parrot you always accuse Republican commenters of being.

[There is a difference between facts (such as citing events that actually happened) and the false "talking points" of the new republican party, which are all misinformation and lies. Things like suggesting that America can win foreign oil independence by domestic drilling. That's a lie, but they like to say "drill drill drill" because it's easier than thinking and considering facts.

I don't get the things I say from some talk show personality or books on hating Republicans. Nothing in your entire comment is anything but bullshit you're repeating from Fox. Shame on you, you're on the wrong side of history, just like the angry American mobs who fought for racism and segregation barely 40 years ago, and tried to make out JFK as a communist. - Dan]

48 NickBob { 04.02.10 at 2:14 pm }

@Mihomeagent-
you have a few points. Those deregulatory bills that Clinton DID sign were passed by a Republican Congress (division of powers and all) but Big Money has friends in the Democratic Party, up to and including the Obama White House and the current Congress. The regs that were undone were erected while Big Money howled by FDR and a progressive economic Congress, mostly Democrats, in the 30′s, the current Democratic Party base still favors the New Deal even if someof our reps only provide lip service.
Which brings me to your other point- it’s true that the Southern Republican crossover hasn’t reversed the de jure movement to racial equality nationally, but they’ve made sure the brakes have been applied and in the meantime have thrown their legislative backing behind the social conservative agenda in all it’s myriad forms. So lip service to reversal of the still-popular Roe v Wade and Social Security privatization, and now the Affordable Healthcare Act, just as we on the left have lip service to a host of liberal items not attended to by this government. Democracy, in the words of the prior President, is hard work.

49 gctwnl { 04.02.10 at 2:16 pm }

Nice. Summing it up like this makes it strong. Only one issue with it: price. iPad + some apps is still far more epxensive than some VTech stuff for instance. Renting iPad’s to all passengers adds to the weight more than the screens in the back seat of the other passengers and is expensive. There will still be some room at the bottom, I guess.

Btw, Dan, did you read Nixonland by Perlstein? Great book. It seems the last decent GOP US president was Eisenhower (who coined the term “military industrial complex”, i.e. the guys charging $300 for a hammer for the Pentagon) and he was succeeded by JFK who campaigned partly by scaring people about a ‘rocket gap’ with the USSR that never existed (as Eisenhower stated). Isn’t politics interesting? Tea party and Sarah Palin anyone?

50 kt { 04.02.10 at 2:53 pm }

mihomeagent: “I wonder what tax rebate to the rich Dan is talking about. Bush didn’t do one. He did cut taxes—for everyone. I know it’s a favorite Dem talking point (Obama uses it all the time) to say that Bush cut taxes for the rich. He didn’t cut taxes for the rich—he cut taxes for everyone. The economy grew.”

Oh brother. You’ve apparently forgotten Bush’s capital gains tax reductions and his efforts to eliminate the “death tax.” Two tax reductions that overwhelmingly benefit the rich.

51 Neil Anderson { 04.02.10 at 3:03 pm }

“Radio is dead, and VHS is dead, but they aren’t the same kind of dead. ”

Only mostly dead.

52 samgreen { 04.02.10 at 3:41 pm }

If radio is dead, are Rush Limbaugh and Howard Stern zombies?

53 Donald { 04.02.10 at 3:42 pm }

Thanks, Dan, for a stimulating, interesting, and informative discussion. Please continue the good work.

Meanwhile, please be careful not to join the legions of people who misuse the word “lay.” You wrote, “Just wait until you get an iPad and you can lock the screen so it won’t flip annoyingly as you try to lay in bed…” Unless you meant to say “lay your body down,” it should have been “lie.”

54 Per { 04.02.10 at 3:50 pm }

Oh politics.

55 MarkyMark { 04.02.10 at 4:02 pm }

Another group the iPad will kill off is fancy custom home-automation system control-pads.

If it were my blog, I’d automatically delete all off-topic posts, especially involving politics or religion.

56 olambo { 04.02.10 at 4:06 pm }

It will interesting to see which of your predictions come to pass. I think you’re still being a little conservative especially on its effect on Apples traditional core business.

NOTEBOOKS including the Macbook line. Dead. Why do I or anyone else need one of these. Most consumers just consume, the iPad is better for this. Power users may use laptops, but many hook theirs to an external screen and a box like the mac mini might be more useful as long as you have a iPad to back it up.

57 lyndell { 04.02.10 at 4:31 pm }

$200 12″ Atom powered laptop would be brilliant, but no one is doing it right. iPad with keyboard dock will suit many technophobes better than a cheap desktop.

58 David Dennis { 04.02.10 at 5:50 pm }

I would certainly hope that Dan and that sexy comedienne girlfriend he found are still enjoying looking into each other’s eyes. There are some things gadgets just can’t do …

@addicted44: Prisoners during World War II created markets based on swapping cigarettes. People in third world countries buy and sell stuff in completely unregulated markets ignored by governments because there just isn’t enough money in them. Even in the Soviet Union, where markets were supposedly forbidden, markets for services came up. So no, markets are not a creation of government; they evolve spontaneously if they are not otherwise provided for.

D

59 harrywolf { 04.02.10 at 5:52 pm }

Ha!
Dan hits the tech business like a nuclear weapon and destroys a few fools with well-researched political comment along the way!

Dan, easily the best article yet – BUT – did someone piss in your cornflakes?

If so, I hope they continue to do so and you continue to fire up your righteous anger and tell it like it is.

It feels like the sixties again! I LOVE it!

(yeah, the 60′s, whatever, but at least there was a kind of beautiful, if misguided hope back then……)

Daniel Eran Dilger for President! (just dont go to Texas, Danny boy)

60 GQB { 04.02.10 at 6:35 pm }

@David Dennis
All kinds of systems work well spontaneously at a small scale, including (or particularly) markets.
Its when the scale becomes large, and the influence of power and corruption distort the system that regulation becomes necessary to make the system work.
Just because an unregulated system works fine with 10 prisoners swapping cigarettes doesn’t mean it works well for millions of people in a system where the distribution has gone to a point where a tiny minority control the vast majority of the wealth.

61 geoffrobinson { 04.02.10 at 7:09 pm }

I would dance on Flash’s grave.

62 stefn { 04.02.10 at 9:51 pm }

Great rant, DED.

63 KenC { 04.02.10 at 10:00 pm }

Dan’s rant reminded me of the movie Network!

64 mattp { 04.02.10 at 10:03 pm }

“Apple has three anchors for the iPhone OS, each holding down very different markets and audiences: the iPhone, iPod touch and iPad. They’re suspending the platform like a big tent in the App Store. Android has one trick, and its a mess.”

You nailed it Dan. Can’t wait for your next article.

-Matt

65 Mr. Reeee { 04.02.10 at 10:04 pm }

Dan,

Great article! Lots of laughs and food for thought.
Please revisit it next year when iPad 2.0 is released.

My iPad should be delivered in few hours.
If I manage to get any sleep, it’ll be a miracle!

Speaking of pissing in cornflakes…
Isn’t it about time you banned that idiot rufustfirefly?
Why doesn’t he/she/it just go back to teabagging and leave us alone?

Groucho Marx would horsewhip that idiot.

66 Mr. Reeee { 04.02.10 at 10:06 pm }

@stefn 7 KenC…

That was no rant… that was INSPIRED!

67 psycroptic { 04.03.10 at 12:33 am }

wait, kill handheld games? what the dick?

the primary appeal for these types of devices is that they can be very easily portable. yeah, the ipad’s light & thin and what not, but folks are always gonna want a (relatively) pocket-sized way to play games methinks.

also, i’m not that up to speed on the construction of the ipad, but both the PS and the DS seem to me to be a bit more physically durable than the ipad. idk

68 wwarby { 04.03.10 at 2:48 am }

Oh come on. Ordinarily I enjoy the Apple cheerleading to be found at Roughly Drafted; it’s rarely even handed but it’s usually on the mark or at least close to it, but this post really is something else. The iPad may marginalise or even kill a handful of the things on this list, but:

DVDs. Really? a 10″ handheld computer is going to kill the entrenched technology of choice for watching movies on big screen TVs? Come on. If any Apple products were going to impact on the DVD it would have been the Mac Mini or Apple TV and neither has even taken a significant bite out of that market. It’s staggeringly obvious that DVD is a format for home use on a big screen TV and iPad is a format for travelling or away-from-home viewing. There is no overlap.

Office. Really? If iWork for iPad turns out to be anything more than a gimmick, it’ll be a niche product for very specific functions. To impact on Microsoft’s Office monopoly, large numbers of users would have to replace their desktop PCs with iPads and there is absolutely no reason to think that is going to happen (and a lot of reasons to think it won’t). The iPad will be something users have IN ADDITION TO a desktop PC and they might use iWork for iPad is certain situations were it makes more sense than using Office/iWork on a laptop. If anything is a threat to Microsoft Office, it’s OpenOffice but even that has barely loosened Microsoft’s grip on the productivity software market in business for one simple reason: The Microsoft Enterprise Agreement. Office on it’s own is a rip off, but as part of an Enterprise agreement it is a compelling solution for most businesses and Apple simply is not competing in this market (yet).

In-flight entertainment systems. Really? The airline is going to ditch their own entertainment systems on the assumption all passengers own an iPad? Or are they going to hand out iPads as you board the plane? Come on. Even if you overlook this blindingly obvious fault in your logic, you have to overcome the fact that most of the movies you see on an airplane are recent cinema releases not yet available on DVD (or iTunes) and that the in-flight entertainment system is hooked into the plane’s trip computer. Clearly some passengers will board with their iPads and use them instead of the seat-back screen but there is absolutely no reason to suspect the seat-back screens are going to disappear any time soon.

At least half of the ideas in this post are completely baseless IMHO – blind fanboy-ism of exactly the same kind that you tear Microsoft and Google fanboys apart for doing.

69 enzos { 04.03.10 at 4:35 am }

Why the need to kill off the old? Jobs is a Buddhist and according to Buddhism, “rebirth in subsequent existences must rather be understood as the continuation of a dynamic, ever-changing process of “dependent arising” (“pratītyasamutpāda”) determined by the laws of cause and effect (karma) rather than that of one being, transmigrating or incarnating from one existence to the next.” (Wikip). A religion fit for innovators.

Great stuff, Dan, but what’s with the socratic second voice?

Enz

70 donarb { 04.03.10 at 6:22 am }

Saw the Charlie Rose show last night with Walt Mossberg and David Carr. According to Mossberg, the one thing that will be “killed” is the mouse. And as others have said here, the mouse won’t disappear, just be rendered nonessential.

I think the big thing about the iPad is that it makes the computing experience for average users much more organic. You become more involved in the experience, and the device disappears. You’re no longer concerned about the machine, but directly interacting with content.

Which is why I cannot understand the current commercials for the Droid and Palm Pre. With the Droid, they show a robot manipulating the interface. With the Palm Pre, the interface manipulates itself with no intervention from humans at all. Apple’s commercials show the human hand, one of creation’s greatest inventions, directly commanding the user’s will.

71 Alan { 04.03.10 at 9:30 am }

I am interested to see how OS X for Macs and iPhone OSX will come closer together in the years to come. I realize that the iPhone OS is touch based which is not meant for vertical screens like we use on our Macs, but laptops already have large trackpads that could be used to navigate. Apple could develop a similar device for their desktop computers. I would like to see a program, maybe even part of iLife, that runs a virtual iPhone on your Mac. It could run as a stand alone program or control your iPhone/Touch/iPad when connected to your Mac. There are actually a lot of iPhone apps that have no true OS X equivalent that I would like to be able to use on my Mac Pro. Think of it as a Dashboard on steroids. It that does happen, that would also give all those Windows using iPhone owners another incentive to buy a Mac if that integration can give some added value to using their device. I would hope that it would make syncing far easier. iTunes was designed as a music program and has been forced into becoming bloated and something it was not designed to do.

72 donjuan { 04.03.10 at 10:55 am }

Dan,

Thank-you for the entertaining April fools, but “Idle moments” are indeed a most unfortunate victim of this device, cell phones, and all the other portable electronic fetishes that we carry about.

73 shadash { 04.03.10 at 1:52 pm }

mihomeagent,

Take a look at the votes on the 1964 Civil Rights bill. No Republican in the South (and only a few Southern Democrats) voted for the bill. This wasn’t a party issue it was a region issue. The Republicans dominate the South now because they pander to whites in the South.

The original House version:
* Southern Democrats: 7-87 (7%-93%)
* Southern Republicans: 0-10 (0%-100%)

* Northern Democrats: 145-9 (94%-6%)
* Northern Republicans: 138-24 (85%-15%)

The Senate version:
* Southern Democrats: 1-20 (5%-95%) (only Senator Ralph Yarborough of Texas voted in favor)
* Southern Republicans: 0-1 (0%-100%) (this was Senator John Tower of Texas)
* Northern Democrats: 45-1 (98%-2%) (only Senator Robert Byrd of West Virginia opposed the measure)
* Northern Republicans: 27-5 (84%-16%) (Senators Barry Goldwater of Arizona, Bourke Hickenlooper of Iowa, Edwin L. Mechem of New Mexico, Milward L. Simpson of Wyoming, and Norris H. Cotton of New Hampshire opposed the measure)

A Nixon adviser named Kevin Phillips is the one that came up with the Southern Strategy.

Best,
Shad

74 epenthesis2 { 04.03.10 at 2:17 pm }

Oh come on. Ordinarily I enjoy the Apple cheerleading to be found at Roughly Drafted; it’s rarely even handed but it’s usually on the mark or at least close to it, but this post really is something else

Pretty much, yeah. A few of these things, particularly Flash, may well die off in the next few years (whether or not the iPad can be considered directly responsible), but this slaughter is simply not going to happen. Dan, I’m not sure you realize how much of your credibility you’re frittering away by never exercising some critical thinking.

My warning bells started going off at “PSP, DS.” Yeah, iPad is certainly poised to become popular as a gaming platform. No, it’s not going to kill dedicated handheld systems until it starts getting the licenses that the major players already have. There’s a good reason there are so many active competitors in this market–there are no true substitutes. Moreover, a big chunk of the gaming audience is priced out of the iPad.

And seriously, wtf is wrong with you people who have to discuss politics in every f*cking thread? Get lost.

75 gus2000 { 04.03.10 at 3:10 pm }

I hope you’ve all figured out by now that Dan means “dead” in the sense of being irrelevant and outmoded. I can still go out and buy a saddle right now for my horse, but the auto has supplanted the horse as a means of transportation. (Yes, I actually have a horse.)

BTW, typing this on my brand-new iPad!! The site looks great Dan!

76 Mike { 04.03.10 at 6:38 pm }

@Gus2000
You have a horse? When can I ride it? :)

All kidding aside, it seems like most of these predictions are already or close to becoming true. Although I have to disagree with the killing of Office part. Unless Microsoft decides to quit selling Office for the Mac, Office just won’t die and people won’t consider alternatives because it’s just too easy to keep the status quo. Especially since Office is competitively priced with iWork on the Mac. So I don’t think it’s a black and white case. Yes, Office use will hopefully erode and dwindle, but it won’t die off and become irrelevant, at least not in the near future. Maybe 10 years from now, it’s a possibility.

And alot of these predictions actually come from what the iPhone is doing in conjunction with the iPad, since both run on the same OS, especially the ones about Chrome OS and Android. Unfortunately for Apple, Google is actually subsidizing the cost of Chrome OS and Android, making it less than free in terms of cost for the manufacturers. The only thing they might lack is a highly integrated and highly polished interface. Sure, if Apple can get its costs down to the point where it sells some of its phones free with a contract that doesn’t cost $70 a month, people might consider that over a lower priced alternative. But unfortunately for Apple, it seems like the mobile operators (particularly Verizon) don’t want to just hand over control to Apple so that they become a dump pipe selling services.

77 mraybman { 04.03.10 at 9:37 pm }

I think that while a lot of your predictions may come to pass, it will take a lot longer to kill flash, paper and small notebooks (not netbooks) than the iPad’s product lifetime. As revolutionary as the iPod was, it didn’t kill everyone else in the portable music space before being slowly phased out by the iPhone.

Plus, I think a lot of companies have learned from Apple and are bound to release solid competitors. These competing devices will need widely adopted OS’s and so Android/Chrome OS/Windows 7 will still be in demand for a while.

78 grantly { 04.03.10 at 10:02 pm }

Great article, Dan. I kinda thought you might have a good one to mark the ‘Pad launch, but you blew past my already high expectations! Reminded me of the one you wrote a hundred years ago about MC’s Scanlan Lake, and pissed off the pool lady, because you commented on all the …piss!

79 Raymond { 04.04.10 at 3:55 am }

Dan, You could have also mentioned that the iPad’s low entry point at $499 torpedoes Microsoft’s ambition to raise the cost of netbooks; extracting even more money for Windows licenses. Apple has put a ceiling in place now for what OEMs can charge for a netbook.

80 Mr. Reeee { 04.04.10 at 8:08 am }

@mraybman

I see your points, but as in the desktop/laptop computer environment, it’s all about the software. AND I might add, about integration.

Android and MS OSes have several handicaps vs. Apple’s Total Integration Model (let’s call it TIM… gotta love acronyms).

Since the MSdroid ecosystem consists of many manufacturers and OSes with few guidelines (of which anyone is aware) getting them all to work on (virtually) the SAME OS will be extremely difficult. (I don’t really see WinMo7 going much of anywhere.) MSdroid will end up being more like the Windows side of things than the proponents will care to think of or recognize. Yes, they’ll probably market some compelling devices, but with an array of different hardware configurations… differing screen resolutions, processors, keypads, touch-screens, ports/slots, etc… the end product will be just as complex, buggy, unstable as Windows. This will be a boon for IT people who thrive on others’ tech misfortunes, but no thanks.

Say what you will about Apple’s TIM, but it works. 300,000,000+/- mobile devices, PLUS Mac OS X is a pretty good indicator. As we see, limiting hardware configs has turned out to be a good thing, in that you can really get an handle on EXACTLY what is there on the hardware side AND be able to fine tune the software to take advantage of the hardware.

Apple now has 3 devices (4 when the 3G iPad ships). How many MSdroid things have we seen, with new models popping up weekly?

Look at the iPad… mine, anyway ;^) … the naysayers bitched about the “missing” pieces, but the thing is smooth, fast and literally disappears when you’re using it, in a way that even Mac users would be hard-pressed to imagine. With the huge battery life, I literally used it off and on for most of the day and evening yesterday and even read the NY Times for an hour this morning before the battery finally crapped out.

Me? I’ll take that.

81 curiositrey { 04.04.10 at 8:58 am }

An accurate list of predictions – at least I have been thinking along those lines…You forgot to mention music hardware (synths, samplers, groove boxes), camera filters and lens add-ons, remote controls, any electronic device that you can think of can be recreated – and improved! – on the iPad…A great example is the $10 App version of the $400 Korg Electribe. The only people who don’t get the iPad as a total game-changer are the ones who haven’t tried one yet.

As to the guy who mentioned the lack of analog back-ups, and the lower than hi-def quality of the movies and music, somehow I managed to print my photos archivally, store them in Cloud servers, and still transfer between camera, iPod and iPad…I love listening to my vinyl, while I edit photos on my iPad.

And my kids want my iPad badly – they got it right away. Why Nintendo – who embraced gestural controls early – aren’t all over the iPhone OS I have no idea…My daughter wants her Ds games ported immediately! If you can sell a million copies at $10 without shipping a physical product, versus 100,000 over packaged inventory clogging games, it is a simple no-brainer. Nintendo, you are getting ready to lose the kids.

It is a one-way technology, just like Tivo was…Once you experience the interface and possibilities, you can’t imagine working any other way.

82 Dude { 04.04.10 at 1:11 pm }

@schmiddi: I agree that I’m unlikely to buy another laptop and will instead have an iPhone, iPad 3G, and a Mac Pro. for heavy work like editing videos, and analyzing large datasets of cycling power meter data. Laptops just aren’t that light when traveling and have a limited numbers of cores for video editing, and analyzing millions of cycling datapoints.

@MarkyMark: I’d be happy if it killed off my separate remotes for the stereo, AppleTV, TV, etc. I have to turn on 3 devices to watch an iTunes download. If I have cable TV, I’d have yet another remote.

83 jcf { 04.04.10 at 4:04 pm }

Dan, you missed a fairly obvious one that would have nicely rounded out your list of now 20 things: digital photo frames. You can set the iPad into a slideshow mode while it’s locked. Combined with a case or dock to keep it upright, it’s a natural substitute.

Also, I don’t see Nintendo faring very well in the hardware business over the next 5-10 years. They seem to be desperately pumping out new DS units every six months or so mainly to boost sales, and the Wii’s early success with its low price and novelty controller is giving way to much better values offered by Sony and Microsoft. Everyone else has caught up with or surpassed Nintendo on touch screens and motion control, and while they are traditionally known for innovative controllers, I don’t see them doing much that Apple isn’t already developing in a much broader context beyond just gaming.

That narrow focus on gaming is what I think will ultimately doom Nintendo to an ever-shrinking niche. On the software side, they’ve repeatedly failed over several years to deliver a seamless online multimedia experience (granted, it’s also taken Sony a while to do the same, but they are in far better shape). Meanwhile, Apple is gobbling up the casual market, leaving Nintendo with only its usual list of first-party IPs. Will they alone be enough to keep hardware sales afloat when more and more people (not just gamers) already own iPhone, iPod Touches, and iPads? My suspicion is that they won’t.

84 Mr. Reeee { 04.04.10 at 6:34 pm }

@jcf

The photo frame really is kind of a stealth iPad feature.

I hit the photo frame button this morning by accident and was pleasantly surprised to see the 2 photos of flooding in Massachusetts my sister sent going thru a slide show. I suddenly wanted to load photos from trips to Bulgaria, Greece, Istanbul, Aruba, Guatemala, etc. and let it do the photo frame thing.

Apple really seems to have covered all the bases with the iPad!

BTW, I was at the Upper West Side Apple Store today and it was JAMMED. it was wall-to-wall iPad! Lots of people with iPads and others, presumably my neighbors who got their iPads via UPS, buying the few iPad accessories available.

Holy shit. Game changer. And more than just the for D-pad obsessed!

85 gctwnl { 04.05.10 at 1:01 am }

It is interesting to wonde what the iPad ‘new computing form factor’ is going to do to the existing smartphone-laptop-desktop landscape. Intuitively, maybe two modes live side by side:
- smartphone + laptop (which doubles as desktop)
- (simple phone +) pad + desktop
The latter could be pad+desktop with the pad as VoIP phone using a bleutooth headset (answer calls without taking your iPad from your backpack/etc.

So, the iPad could improve desktop sales at the cost of laptops which always are somewhat a performance compromise. iPad on the road, powerful desktop at home for the heavy lifting.

86 pv { 04.05.10 at 2:37 am }

You forgot flash :-)

87 jdlcxxx { 04.05.10 at 4:23 am }

You forgot to mention that the iPad will cure cancer.

88 sachxn { 04.05.10 at 5:42 am }

I completely agree with each and every point you have written but but we have to see if apple is really preparing itself for the ad world or not.

89 Alan { 04.05.10 at 8:28 am }

Netflix for the iPad suddenly changes everything. I was not that impressed when the iPad was first announced. I mean, iTunes TV/Movie selection is pretty small and VERY expensive. Who wants to pay $2 for a TV show you only want to watch once? But now that netflix will also be available, I am actually considering buying one. I already have a subscription that I use on my PS3 and absolutely love it. For $9 a month I get unlimited viewing. I can even use my phone as a 3G wifi hotspot to stream movies to an iPad where wifi is not available. Netflix is the killer app for the iPad. Now if they would just release a Netflix app for the Apple TV…..

90 iLogic { 04.05.10 at 9:16 am }

Daniel,

Have you checked out Corey Doctorow’s “Why I won’t buy an iPad (and think you shouldn’t, either) ?

The following paragraph is one of the easiest ones to chew on:

“Wal-Martization of the software channel”

And let’s look at the iStore. For a company whose CEO professes a hatred of DRM, Apple sure has made DRM its alpha and omega. Having gotten into business with the two industries that most believe that you shouldn’t be able to modify your hardware, load your own software on it, write software for it, override instructions given to it by the mothership (the entertainment industry and the phone companies), Apple has defined its business around these principles. It uses DRM to control what can run on your devices, which means that Apple’s customers can’t take their “iContent” with them to competing devices, and Apple developers can’t sell on their own terms”

Through out the article he constantly uses the term “iApps” and “iStore” in an obvious attempt to change perception.

Daniel, I really really hope this guy is on your squat list!

91 gctwnl { 04.05.10 at 11:24 am }

Re: Doctorow

I am also pretty pissed off that I cannot run my own software on my dishwasher, that AEG controls what software is run on it, etc. :-) Or same argument re: Nintendo DS.

The tech oriented people do not get it, I think.

iPhone OS based devics are a bit half way between completely open, like a PC or completely closed like your set top box.

So it is a new option in the complete range of possibilities. Is that a problem?

92 addicted44 { 04.05.10 at 12:21 pm }

Re: Doctorow

I am sure Mr. Doctorow doesn’t drive a car made since the 90′s, you know, since all those electronics in there are just a big-black box, and you cannot hack into them, like you could hack into the internals of your cars in the 60′s. i.e., the Walmartization of the modern car.

I am sure Mr. Doctorow has never purchased a video-game console, or played any computer games for that matter, thanks to all the DRM on those games. i.e. the Walmartization of the video game market.

I am sure Mr. Doctorow never uses Google, since all that source code is hidden away, and has never been open-sourced by the Lords of All Open Source, and they Who Can Do No Evil? i.e. the Walmartization of the search engine.

etc… etc…

93 Nick R { 04.05.10 at 5:59 pm }

These are some bold predictions of death. Even bolder is the claim that it will be from the iPad.

DVDs – streaming and Blu-ray couldn’t handle this task. A bit of a stretch to think the iPad will undo the grip DVDs have on the market (or on the studios’ wallets).
People love to think electronic versions of paper will replace paper, but sometimes nothing is better.
Killing the eReader — yeah. The eReader was never even alive, was it?
The PSP & DS… it’s crazy to think, but you’re probably right. The lame attempt at media integration into the DSi was horrible, and the PSP – with a more sophisticated and polished media integration, just couldn’t take off. The key problem – playing a game on a DS or PSP is playing a video game to most adults. Playing a game like Doodle Jump on the iPhone doesn’t feel the same – as in dorky.

I love me some Nintendo, but I would never bust a DS out in the DMV line… my iPhone, yup.

94 tundraboy { 04.05.10 at 7:56 pm }

I almost feel sorry for the Limbaugh republicans when Dan tears them apart by methodically picking through every half-truth and outright falsehood that they mouth from the Official Talking Points. Where oh where have the thinking republicans gone? They’re disappearing from opinion pages and the only place to occasionally catch one is on PBS or MPR. Really, I can’t remember the last time I had an intelligent, informed conversation with a self-identifying republican. Seriously, as liberal as I might profess to be, this is not good for the country.

95 cy_starkman { 04.05.10 at 10:24 pm }

A couple of quick replies into the fray.

Nothing can kill the Amiga unless it can display two resolutions at once on the same screen. The Amiga though obviously killed the Atari ST ; )

Portable gaming. The iPad / iPhone ecosystem won’t kill that market per say, directly, though from recent buying trends it appears the PSP might cop it between the eyes. Rather it will be a cumulative thing based on generational exposure and price points.

Ah hem. Five years ago, if you had a kid you got them a DS, that was the training ground. 15 years ago you got them a GB or console. This creates an expectation in the users both in terms of games and pricing. Now you let them at your iPhone with a couple of 99c or free games to play with. This changes everything for the future.

The argument against the iPhone effect on portable gaming is quality. No disagreement from me BUT quality sadly isn’t the key, it’s exposure to a quality threshold. MP3/AAC is crap compared to CD, JPG and MPG are crap compared to photos and VHS (non copied). Yet somehow crap has totally stomped quality. How? Expectation thresholds. If you grow up with tinny plastic headphones and looking at JPG’s then that’s what you think is awesome. MP3 sounds no different through crap audio gear and if your viewing tool is pixel based then a image made of chunks seems reasonable. Even now people are trumpeting download HD video as somehow being better than BluRay, it’s not and it doesn’t matter because in the next 2 years chances are you will watch more download HD than Bluray and in doing so your expectation of quality will drop.

So kids today are being exposed to less involved games that are cheap and plentiful. Your kids will be downloading new free games every half hour, playing with them for an hour maybe and getting another one. You won’t haggle with them over 99c or 1.99 a game so their experience will be more consumed with iPhone esque gaming versus the limited exposure due to in family battling over which 30-50 DS game they might get for christmas.

Outcome? The effect of the iPhone on the portable gaming market is two fold. Firstly gamers will expect less for less and Secondly the developers will respond to this because it is better for them than risking huge dollars on some massive complicated game.

Same with controls. Of course touch is not better than buttons, but if you grow up dealing with touch issues they will be normal. I remember people complaining about having to look at buttons and a screen with console games, it was too hard and limited visibility (by looking away). No trouble if you are raised on it. Right now, kids are being raised on touch.

As a parent as well you can see the easy lock down of the iPad, its use as a cheap computer and its abilities to do assignments as being selling points over a DS and you can chuck in 30 games a month for the kid for the price of one.

Sony, MS and Nintendo make money off being the exclusive publishing point for their consoles (same as Appstore), if the market expectation drops from $30 – $1 there is some big trouble ahead for the console makers. Sony and MS would never see black on new consoles. Nintendo at least would see black on hardware and could probably weather the market shift.

I’d say Nintendo is in the best position to survive the collapse of game pricing. They have also taken the leading road in casual gaming and expanding markets, so at least they understand where it is all headed.

Other things the iPad will kill to some degree or another.

1) The corporate/education thin client
2) Lighting control desks
3) Sound control desks
4) KVM / switches for headless servers

96 gmmour { 04.06.10 at 8:07 am }

Another thing the iPad is going to kill in the long term is physical keyboards and tracking devices (mice and trackpads)… I do believe that Mac OS X for MacBooks will start becoming more touch friendly, eventually yielding full touch based MacBooks and desktop Macs!

97 Aframe { 04.06.10 at 8:55 am }

The iPad WILL kill the desktop PC

“Aframe { 04.02.10 at 8:16 am }
The iPad will kill the desktop PC. It will also kill office desks. You will still need a chair.

If all of your email is on your iPad, if all of your resources – notes, calendars, addresses – are on your iPad and you have iWork apps, why bother going to a desk or a desktop PC?

Remember that one of the main points of the Xerox Parc, Macintosh and later Windows OS was that with a mouse, you could move a pointer on a screen, “almost as if you were pointing at it with your finger”. Now the iPad has removed that final caveat. Not WYSIWYG, (what you see is what you get) but “what you point at is what you select”.

As iPad apps develop, new ways will be found to make that human interface even more direct, and desktops, keyboards and mice will all eventually seem like unnecessary obstacles to getting your work done.

BTW, what happened to all those “why the iPad will FAIL” articles?”

Years from now, people will look back on the introduction of the iPad as the turning point between computers that needed [first] a keyboard and [later, thanks to Apple] a mouse, and those that humans could use without anything other than their finger, body or “touch” gestures.

All of the people who do not understand this, and all of the devices they sell or work on, will soon become “obsolete”. That does not mean they will not continue to exist.

We still have people using film cameras, we still have people listening to shortwave radio, we still have people using 78-rpm gramophone records, 8-track tapes or Microsoft Windows. Some or all of them are doing good work, but almost none of them are still contributing to the mainstream of history.

So when Daniel Eran Dilger says these “dinosaur” technologies are dead, he doesn’t mean they are “deceased”, but he does mean they are “removed from the mainstream of history”.

And I Agree

98 praetor { 04.06.10 at 3:19 pm }

The only thing that the iPad will kill is your credibility as a writer.

Maybe if it wasn’t using technology that’s already a decade old and wasn’t being kept afloat by microtransactions by third party developers so that they can hawk their remake of a flash game that could be found on the internet for free for $5, but until that changes (and it won’t), the iPad will be another overpriced, failed commodity that only diehard fanboys will slobber all over.

[Is there some sort of Logan's Run principle that makes technologies worthless after a decade? And is iPad's embarrassment of today's resistive, +1" tablets part of why you are so upset that you have to call up down? Also, you don't seem to understand the definition of the word "commodity." But thanks for being a jerk, as its so hard to come by anonymous, arrogant, and ignorant turds on the Internet. - Dan ]

99 RC Cola { 04.06.10 at 4:00 pm }

Killing DVDs? Ridiculous. iPads would have to replace televisions first, and that is an area where bigger is better. It won’t happen. The only thing that might eventually kill off the DVD is blu-ray.

Killing the DS/PSP? Another thing that won’t happen. While you use the price of games to compare the app games to DS/PSP games, you fail to compare the quality of games. I use my iPod touch and yes, I have some games for it. However, nothing I have on my iPod comes close to the quality of games I can play on my DS.

Those were just two of the most ridiculously outlandish things I found in your article.

100 RC Cola { 04.06.10 at 4:05 pm }

Oh, and Nick R.

“I love me some Nintendo, but I would never bust a DS out in the DMV line… my iPhone, yup.”

This seems to have more to do with your own insecurities than it does about which is a better ideal for gaming. Though if I had to wait somewhere a while and didn’t want to play a game, I would choose to use my iPod Touch to watch a movie or tv show that I have on it.

101 somefagfromg { 04.06.10 at 4:10 pm }

Let’s stay realistic here.

[My use of hyperbole with the word "kill" means 'suck the life out of,' not 'efface from the planet' -Dan]

DVDs: Definitely no. People said the SAME thing about DVDs. You can’t rent an iTunes download, or insert it on one of millions of DVD players on large screen TVs nationwide without adapters and such, and no special features…no physical, tangible object (part of the resistance behind eReaders)

[Yes, having a 5" circle of plastic comes in real freaking handy when you want to play something on a airplane, doesn't it? Clearly, plastic circles are and will be, the only way we ever distribute video, just as society has staunchly preferred the CD to MP3s. Err, I guess you're wrong on that.]

eReaders: I suggest you try one in person, in an environment such as the great outdoors. E-Ink technology is challenged- the refresh rate, lack of color, and price- but all are improving. Assuming prices will remain stagnant is silly. Different device (reading books).

[Yeah, everyone wants to pay $300 for single purpose devices that look kind of paper like, but are just as just as useless at presenting video and interactivity as dead trees. ]

Stacks of paper in office meetings: Stacks of papers don’t go dead, don’t break if you drop them, etc… this is silly too.

[But they cost lots of money. Note that the context I provided was about creating mountains of papers for meetings, which can much more efficiently be done via digital documents. The paperless office is probably a ways off, but paper copies have slowly been increasing with email and PDF.]

Textbooks: Textbook publishers are insane. I’d LIKE to carry around the device, but when my $120 textbook is $110 in an eReader edition I can’t resell, and can’t use if my device is not charged/broken, and can’t read outside on a beautiful sunny day on campus…

[The reason textbook publishers can be insane is that there's little competition. Few can afford to publish a bunch of paper books and hope they'll sell. But lots of people can create digital textbooks, and the ability to consume them from iPad means that competition will now flourish.

If you're still under the impression that iPad isn't readable in bright sunlight, go outside and try one, and stop spreading misinformation. There's no visibility problem in bright sunlight. It's not OLED.]

Netbooks: It’ll probably reduce the marketshare somewhat. “Killing” in that sense, maybe. However, they still make better computers than the iPad- for some of the media consuming crowd, the iPad will be the better choice. However, don’t expect netbooks to go away.

[As another reader pointed out, what iPad will really kill is Microsoft's ability to jack up the price of netbooks, as it hoped to do with Windows 7. nobody is making money on netbooks, not PC makers, not Microsoft. By setting a $500 price ceiling on the category, Apple will make sure netbook makers can only go out of business selling cheap hardware that can't do anything but play Flash crap, slowly.]

PSP/DS: Most of the games I’ve seen on the iPodhave significantly less re-playability, and the touchscreens are awkward. Additionally, you can throw a DS from a 2nd story building to the ground and it’ll work. These two devices also fit into, say, a pants pocket…

[The iPod touch/iPhone already killed the PSP. The DS is dead ended, with Nintendo scrambling to throw out the XL and announce the 3D. Yawn. You can whine about not begin able to get an iPad into your pocket, but do you think you look cool with a DS in your pocket? And all they do is play games. Single use stuff is dead. ]

Brochures: For the reasons I listed in the office paper section, nope. It’s a nice utopia where everyone has a tablet device. We’re quite a few years away from that.

Single-purpose industrial gadgets: No accessory approval required, ability to switch manufacturers if a new part of a series becomes incompatible, open development, hardware support…again, this is idealized.

[Can't respond to that because you didn't really articulate anything.]

Other tablet-ish stuff: Unless someone can come up with a replacement that kicks ass- and I mean serious amounts -yes. Tablet marketshare will suffer. I don’t have much confidence that the HP Slate will “kill” the iPad.

The credibility of haters: This is borderline trolling, in my opinion (take it as you will). Dvorak is a fucking career troll himself though. Still, some pundits predicted Apple TV was going to be in every American home. Very marginal device today.

[Who predicted Apple TV was going to be in every home? I think you just made that up.]

Flash and Silverlight and JavaFX: Flash will hit reduced marketshare- this is good, it is a bloated pig. Silverlight never took off, although it excels in certain applications. JavaFX was always pretty marginal.

Office: This is laughable. Office is fully featured, and most people have displays larger than 9.6″. Additionally, there’s no compatibility with a ton of proprietary shit MS slipped in the DOC/DOCX specs. This is a pipe dream.

[No, it means a lot of new users and young people will experience computing where Office isn't the standard, and isn't even around. Any they'll do fine without it. That's a major problem for Microsoft's third monopoly. Obviously is isn't going to dry up and blow away, but plenty of people will have no reason to pay for Office that now do (or otherwise would have).]

Windows Media Center, set top boxes, Tivo: WMC always had its interest. Set top boxes, people LIKE changing the channel and finding new stuff to watch – Roku, Apple TV, et. al didn’t change this. Tivo has been in trouble for a while too (forgetting the brand, DVRs are booming), but DVRs can be shared among the family and have a remote friendly interface on 40″+ screens.

Idle moments: Yes, funny description. However, the iPad’s size makes it impractical for “On the go” use where I wouldn’t have a laptop in standby anyways.

Chrome OS/Android: The devices I described above won’t be dead, so they won’t die either. Open architecture too.

WinMo7: MS got iPhone envy and is always behind on feature development. We’ll see how this goes, but WinMo has been terrible for years.

In-flight entertainment: Nothing to hold, nothing to charge, satellite TV…movies not preloaded on device. I doubt it.

[They have WiFi on planes these days. ]

Google’s ad monopoly: I doubt it. iPad-like devices still won’t make up the majority of searches. Apple could make money but they’ll hardly kill Google.

[Majority of searches on the desktop, but not mobile. Despite all the hype, Android only sees 9% of smartphone traffic, while Apple has 24% of unit sales and 50% of all mobile web traffic. If Google loses access to that, it loses the mobile search/ads market. ]

102 clovischan { 04.06.10 at 4:20 pm }

Oh yeah, the Ipad is going to be a fantastic device for gaming!

http://kotaku.com/5510976/how-to-orient-yourself-for-optimal-ipad-gaming/gallery/

Anyone who seriously believes that the Ipad will be able to function as a legitimate portable video game system either has some screws loose or knows nothing about the handheld market. I hope that nobody here is going to make the mistake of purchasing an Ipad while carrying such delusions.

[That's kind of a wildly ignorant thing to say, given that all those big video game developers are investing in iPad games. Surely they understand the industry better than some anonymous schmuck with a hotmail account. - Dan]

103 Prometheus { 04.06.10 at 4:31 pm }

To be quite honest, I am very excited for the iPad, especially as a handheld gaming platform. I believe it will have many innovative games, potentially matching the extensive PS3 game library.

104 clovischan { 04.06.10 at 4:45 pm }

Well, Dan, the problem with your statement there is that….well, no, none of the big video game developers really care about the Ipad. Nintendo, Konami, and Capcom certainly don’t, and neither do smaller niche studios like NIS or Atlus. In addition, the problem the Ipad faces is two fold:

1. Western game developers have always always ALWAYS largely avoided the handheld market. This does not seem likely to change, except for more casual titles such as Farmville being ported around.

2. Japanese developers are not going to jump ship from Japanese systems to develop for a western handheld. Have you looked at how poorly the 360 does in Japan? Developers will want to pick the safe option, which is stick with Nintendo and Sony.

And lastly,
>implying I use this account as anything but signing up for stuff :3

[Are you for real? Konami started shipping iPhone games last fall: DDR, Silent Hill, MGSolid, Frogger. Capcom makes Resident Evil titles, Street Fighter, and a variety of other titles for iPhone. Nintendo doesn't make games for anyone but Nintendo, so you could use that same logic against the Xbox and PSP/PS3, but it would be just as ridiculous.

Who else? Electronic Arts, Sega, Gameloft, … go to iTunes and look around you tit. Also, nothing is more puke inducing that Americans explaining how little the Japanese are interested in the iPhone. It's wildly popular there. - Dan ]

105 BraveWarrior123 { 04.06.10 at 4:47 pm }

Great article Dan especially the ending and if I may I would like to reply to “clovischan”.

In reference to your comment ” has some screws loose or knows nothing about the handheld market” I think that the only people with “screws loose” are the ones who dont realise the power of smaller games, they may not cost as much to make or take as long to develop, but games like Farmville and various App Store games have proven that devices like the iPad are the way forward for gamers.

106 jimmyhill { 04.06.10 at 4:51 pm }

I don’t think you realize what the iPad is. It’s just a big iPod touch.

First, who wants to pay 300 dollars for a system that barely out does the PSP? Second there tons of iTouch apps released every day, majority of which are absolute shit and most of the quality ones, games included are more than $5.

The iPad is an easy way to get rich by being a dev because of the suckers like you out there buying everything up. But honestly, it’s not that big of a deal, but you’re entire post screams fanboy. Enjoy toucharcade.

[Thanks for all the common sense, anonymous Hotmail user. Clearly Apple is just bamboozling the public into buying $4 games that are really just Fart Apps in disguise, when what they really want is a bunch of single purpose devices like the PSP, which allow you to pay $40 for games. When will this injustice end? And where is Microsoft's handheld game machine, the Gizmodo? Oh yeah, it went nowhere, just like your rambling post. - Dan]

107 clovischan { 04.06.10 at 5:05 pm }

True, BraveWarrior; smaller games can be quite appealing. However, the appeal of games like Farmville and other such titles is that you already have a platform to play them on; nobody purchases a system TO play the titles on. It seems that Apple is expecting people to pay $500 for the ability to play games they already could find and play on their Iphones or Macbook. Heck, Cave Story was my favorite game I had on my Mac, so I’m not saying that the library of titles available to it will be barren…I’m saying it has no real draws going in. Who will buy it with gaming in mind? Rather, you’ll just happen to buy a few games for it after you purchase it.

108 antsy { 04.06.10 at 5:09 pm }

[quote] Remember when you used to sit in the park, lost in your lover’s eyes? Now you’re both busy checking messages on your iPhone[/quote]

This strikes me as strange, because normally getting lost in the eyes of a lover is seen as a sign of affection and a valid way of spending time

However, you seem to imply that the ipad will take up your life so much, you do not even have time for that. Isn’t this dangerous?

[Yes, alert the Windows Enthusiast FUD patrol, they probably don't have a sense of humor either. Why does everyone with a Hotmail or Live address have to be so painfully stupid? - Dan]

109 BraveWarrior123 { 04.06.10 at 5:12 pm }

“clovischan”, thank you for your reply.

In reference to you suggesting that gamers wont buy an iPad to solely play games, I think this is quite incorrect.
The screen size of the iPad is much superior to say an iTouch or an iPhone, and so is the image quality. Real gamers will upgrade to an iPad solely for gaming because they want the optimum experience, and the iPad provides this.

The Apple App store also has an extensive amount of games for both the casual gamer, such as me, im a father of two and when my kids arent badgering me for something my wife is!!!!!!! But after all that I do have some time to myself, and I like to sit and relax while playing something such as Peggle, I feel the Peggle experience would be much better on an iPad due to the screen size and image quality.

Games on the Apple store are also VERY small in size and available instantly, being able to look at a game and say “I want that, lets go for it”, or should I say “Dad, Dad, I want that one!!”, ha ha ha ha ha and almost instantly play it is an amazing experience.

And im sorry but ive never heard of “Cave Story”, but I must look into it, is it some sort of visual novel?

110 clovischan { 04.06.10 at 5:17 pm }

Well, BW, there’s not much else I can say; I’ll just have to respectfully disagree with you on this, but I am happy that you and your family are able to have an enjoyable gaming experience.

As for Cave Story, it’s a rather interesting game that was developed by a single Japanese man that gained a lot of popularity; it’s available for free on PC (and Mac!), but it became so popular that a remastered Wii title was released just a few weeks ago; I’d recommend googling it, because it’s a very family friendly game that you may want to check out.

111 antsy { 04.06.10 at 5:19 pm }

I do not believe the Ipad can kill the nintendo DS.

Nintendo has a long standing reputation that cannot be easily broken, and franchises as Mario, Pokemon, Legend of Zelda, Brain Training will continiue to sell

Furthermore, the nintendo DS is easier to transport and quite a bit sturdier (the DS can survive falls from stairs, etc. things that would break the Ipad) and nintendo has gone through an intensive marketing process to make their games atractive to all kinds of people. (again example Brain Training).

Also the majority of games on the nintendo DS is in the 15-20 dollar price class and offer most at least 10 hours of gameplay, while, as my experience with Apple Store games proves me, these offer mostly 1-2 hour gameplay for the 5 dollar games.

I honestly cannot see the Ipad overtaking the nintendo DS as a handheld gaming system, especially not now that the next version of the nintendo DS will be able to produce 3d images.

[Does the 3DSi come out before the iPhone turns 4? Before next year? Because that's a lot of App Store games away given how many Apple is selling. And while Nintendo has a pretty good track record, it did fumble the Super Nintendo launch, giving Sony its PlayStation franchise, and then managed to completely fail with the Game Cube, despite all of its familiar franchises. And while the Wii was fun while it lasted, it's looking pretty long in the tooth at this point. The DS is pretty tired too. I don't think people primarily buy games machines that can withstand falls. They buy games that are fun to play. - Dan ]

112 BraveWarrior123 { 04.06.10 at 5:21 pm }

“clovischan”, I think we can agree to disagree! ha ha ha ha ha

And thank you for the recommendation for “Cave Story”, I had a look at it but unfortunately it does not seem like my type of game, I do like my visuals and in my opinion the style of this game isnt all that, as for the kids, theyre in bed right now, so ill have to get back to you on that one, ha ha ha ha ha!

I also had a read of the plot, and it seems as though the character has awoken and has amnesia of sorts, that sounds about as farfetched as someone roleplaying two women on a spaceship using avatars on a videogame imageboard, ha ha ha ha ha! Eh…

113 clovischan { 04.06.10 at 5:37 pm }

Oh BraveWarrior, you’re just too much <3

Oh, and Dan….umm….you might want to have another look at the 'Microsoft' Gizmondo…you may be a little confused on something…

114 clovischan { 04.06.10 at 6:13 pm }

Oooops! Forgot my link; how silly of me:

http://www.crunchgear.com/2009/02/26/iphone-not-selling-well-in-japan-now-available-for-free/

[I have reported over and over about the sensationalist misinformation about Japanese "hate" for the iPhone, which was based on completely BS reporting by people who knew nothing and just made crap up (Like Wired). The reality is that iPhone is the top selling phone in Japan, and the iPod touch is also very popular. Look at Apple's sales reports. - Dan]

115 Yurt { 04.06.10 at 6:29 pm }

The Itouch and Iphone haven’t left so much as a dent in DS and PSP sales. What makes you think the Ipad, which costs twice as much as the Itouch, will? Ipad will never compete with handheld systems devoted to gaming. You know why? Because kids make up a massive part of the handheld gaming market, the DS in particular. No parent, no parent, is going to drop five hundred bucks on an Ipad for their kid. Hell, I doubt kids are even interested in the Ipad to begin with.

Cool sensationalist article, though. Though, a tip: your fanboyism for Apple is embarrassing. Maybe try keeping that to yourself in the future.

[You're entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts. For starters, check out the demographics of iPod touch users. The majority are under 25, and the largest chunk is under 18. iPod touch was the same price as iPad in 2008. Plenty of parents were dropping money on their kids.

It doesn't really matter if they buy a iPod touch or iPad though, either way it erases interest in dedicated game devices that only play games.

Flurry iPhone OS stats in gaming

Call me names all you want, but you're just wrong across the board, because of facts, not because I don't like your opinions. -Dan]

116 antsy { 04.06.10 at 6:35 pm }

Does the 3DSi come out before the iPhone turns 4? Before next year? Because that’s a lot of App Store games away given how many Apple is selling. And while Nintendo has a pretty good track record, it did fumble the Super Nintendo launch, giving Sony its PlayStation franchise, and then managed to completely fail with the Game Cube, despite all of its familiar franchises. And while the Wii was fun while it lasted, it’s looking pretty long in the tooth at this point. The DS is pretty tired too. I don’t think people primarily buy games machines that can withstand falls. They buy games that are fun to play. – Dan

The 3DSi will most likely come out end this year.

The Snes eventually became the most popular system around that time, and the gamecube never died, as you implied would happen to the DS. And it wasn’t a complete fail, that is like saying Macintosh is a complete fail because Microsoft sells 8 times as much.

[No, it was Nintendo going from a perennial first position in consoles to being dog last next to the Xbox as the PS2 took over. Nothing like the Mac at all. The GC sold so badly that nobody made games for it.]

The DS is tired, but the 3DSi is comming very soon and will reïnvigorate the franchise

Also I think you underestimate several franchises. The pokemon main games have sold over 10 million copies per game (that is 20 million copies per generation) each. Something which no game in the applestore comes close to. And mario is by this moment more known then Micky Mouse

Also, the Ipad is fragile, this meens that parents will be less likely to buy a 500 dollar gaming device (children do not need the flexibility the Ipad has, they often have the family PC they use) that breaks easily (kids will be kids) then a 100 dollar gaming device that hardly breaks.

Furthermore, the Ipad is not marketed as a primary games system, which will cause a lot of people to go for more traditional gaming systems.

And als this little calculation: A DS (100 dollar) +20 games (20 dollar each)= 1 Ipad without games

[At which point you have a worthless DS (what, you picked it up used?) and a iPad. Guess which your kids want? And how many free DS games are there?]

add to this that most games on the DS have much longer gameplay then games in the applestore

Also the Ipad can never replace the Wii. The Wii is cheaper, has games that look better, play longer and has motion controll while having easy acces to multiplayer and has a massive library of cheap games available to it (old nes and snes games, a huge game library available for as little as 5 dollar)

Furthermore, not all Ipads will be sold as gaming systems, in fact the greater majority is not sold as a gaming system. Because if that were true, then every laptop sold is also a gaming system.

All laptops have easy acces to 100.000′s of completely free flash and java games, which the ipad will not have acces to due to limitations on that part

[Show me five Java or Flash games that aren't just ridiculous crap. You can't. You like to titter about Fart Apps, but that's all there is on lowest common denominator platforms.]

I know that you like the Ipad, and I will not say it is a bad device, however to claim it will bring Nintendo out of the market, while they have dominated that market for the past 30 years (handheld market) is…well rather optimistic on your part.

[Because it would be difficult to imagine that the company that took away Sony's Walkman franchise, which it held for more than twenty years, could also dethrone Nintendo at gaming? After Nintendo failed to do anything interesting with the DS for years and hasn't learned any new tricks with mobiles or general computing/web browsing devices or music and media… why exactly is Nintendo so untouchable in your mind?

You're so over the place with your random trolling that I can't even respond to this stuff. - Dan]

117 clovischan { 04.06.10 at 6:48 pm }

To build on the comment above mine, I noticed something strange about Dan’s opening post:

>Oh Dan, you’re so controversial. Netbooks are an amazingly cheap way to get low powered, junky hardware that can even run Linux if anyone cared to. You can type into a word processor, play moron-level Flash weblet games, and even surf the web.

Ummmm….couldn’t you use that to describe the iPad? All you’re doing is demonizing Netbooks by bashing all their features. The iPad isn’t capable of doing anything a Netbook can’t, especially considering the lack of USB support. This is also a devastating blow to the game library, because touch control is largely unresponsive. Have you tried playing Mega Man, Earthworm Jim….heck, any sort of schmup on the iPhone? It’s incredibly difficult without a traditional control scheme. On top of this, the App store is utterly FLOODED with cheap, cheap flash games, many of which you could easily play on something as simple as a Netbook.

Really, it seems like you’re championing the ipad so hard, you end up making it look a little wimpy. A device like this should be able to stand on it’s own merits, not rely on a blogger to shout about how it’ll destroy the competition.

[I know you Hotmail users have a lot of time on your hands, but I'm a little tired of your incessant trolling.

No, iPad isn't flimsy low powered hardware. There's a big difference between running iPhone OS on ARM and running Windows 7 on an Atom. And what exactly do you do on your netbook "with USB support"?

There may be junk games in the App STore, but that's not all there is, and its designed to filter high quality stuff to the top. If it weren't good, it wouldn't be selling. Troll, troll, troll - Dan]

118 antsy { 04.06.10 at 7:06 pm }

This is a small post, however I would like to have the specifications of the graph you posted

This is just out of friendly interest and because at times, graphs display something entirely different then what is actually happening. I would like to study this so that in the rare case it does infact turn out different this will not be used against you by people of ill intent

[It's a Flurry report, go find it. It's at the top of their site. - Dan]

119 antsy { 04.06.10 at 7:29 pm }

#web browsing devices or music and media… #

The nintendo DS has a web browser, is capable of being transformed into a music player

The Wii has a very good synergy with SD cards. These are very commonly used in various digital cameras. Also It has many free online functions and even more you have to pay a small ammount for (same as with Apple Store)

#Show me five Java or Flash games that aren’t just ridiculous crap. You can’t. You like to titter about Fart Apps, but that’s all there is on lowest common denominator platforms.#

yet the games in Apple Store are made folling the same process as those flashgames.

As for games that are not shit and free? While offcourse that is subjective there are many games that obviously show the developper has done its work. Including imho, Sonny games, Elements the game, bloons tower defence, gemcraft (various iterations), Super Stacker, Pandemic 1 and 2 and various other games

I’m sorry but you left most of my points unanswered and the others are fairly easy to refute or are simply not based in reality (such as saying the nintendo ds has no web browser or music ap)

#The GC sold so badly that nobody made games for it.#

The game Metroid Prime is a Gamecube game and was vote game of the year by the most prominent gaming magazines. Furthermore I direct you to wikipedia or google for a list of games that appeared on the gamecube

#And how many free DS games are there#
If the Ipad has no flash or Java that meens its ammount of free games is just as trivial to those of the Ds compared the the millions (no exageration) of free games available on the internet

120 clovischan { 04.06.10 at 7:33 pm }

Ummm….Dan, nowhere did I say that I owned a Netbook. I DID use the USB support on my old macbook very often, though. External hard drives and gamepads are pretty nice things to have.

I’m a little worried here; you seem to be taking all this ipad criticism very personally. Can I ask you a question? Do you feel the iPad has any flaws? Or do you seriously think it’s perfect? It’s possible to dislike a product but still feel it has good points; likewise, the opposite is true. Personally, I just don’t feel the ipad is for me, but I think it does do some stuff….well enough. You seem to be labeling any criticism as trolling, though, and that’s somewhat worrying.

So, again: Do you feel the iPad has any flaws? Specifically, do you think the lack of USB support is a good thing? Because that’s kind of the deal breaker for me.

[When you go on and on about a "lack of USB support," is it because you don't realize it has a USB connection (and a camera connection kit for importing photos), or because you'd prefer several USB ports to being able to use Bluetooth or WiFi? What do you think you'd be doing with USB ports on the iPad, charging your iPhone? Plugging in a mic? Connecting a keyboard?

Seriously, you nutters get on a tear about some mistaken position and go absolutely bonkers about nothing - Dan ]

121 Archon { 04.06.10 at 7:58 pm }

You seem to be somewhat misinformed in your idea that the iPad will “kill” the Nintendo DS and/or the Sony PSP.

First off, as has been stated by several others, the games for the iPad are marketed at regular people, not actual gamers. By gamers, I refer to people who invest a lot of time and money into gaming as a hobby. Gamers are not people who occasionally play a game for 5 minutes while they’re waiting for a bus. The games on the iPad/iPod touch are being marketed to everyone. The games on the PSP and the DS however, are being marketed to gamers. I’m not saying that games on the iPad can’t be fun, they just lack depth that is offered by games on the PSP and DS. Before you start ranting about single use devices, when it comes to games, quality over quantity. If I’m buying something to play video games with, the first thing I look at is how many quality games it has, not at its multimedia features.

[That might well be the case, but it won't matter if the majority of the market goes to devices that do everything AND play good games. Previous attempts to do this failed (such as Nokia's NGage) but Apple's strategy is clearly working. And Nintendo is clearly scrambling (without a strategy for doing anything else but games) while Sony has never done well (despite having nice hardware, albeit locked up and limited). So that's why I've been writing for YEARS that this shift is in play. And it is increasingly apparent that it is happening. - Dan]

You also mention price, but you only talk about the game’s price. As I said, the DS and PSP games tend to be of higher quality, depth, and length than iPad games, so the higher price isn’t ridiculous. What is ridiculous is that you failed to compare the prices of the iPad to the DS and PSP, which is incredibly biased. The fact is, you could buy a DS or PSP with several games for the price of an iPad with no games.

[The problem is, there aren't that many people choosing between a DS or PSP and an iPod/iPad/iPhone. People get Apple gear to do various things, and end up with a game player too. They won't need a separate games device at any price.]

That’s a cool chart you posted by the way. Maybe if you weren’t so biased you could have posted a chart with international sales data, and not just the U.S. Last I checked, the U.S. wasn’t the entire world market, nor was it a good indicator of it. The iPad will never be able to “kill” the DS or PSP because it will never be able to infiltrate the Japanese market.

[What I write is based on what I think IS, not what I wished were the case (most of the time at least). So I'm not distracted by advocating the video game console I personally like, or some other affinity to old things. I write about what I think is happening, based on the information sources that are available. The Flurry report is the only data I've seen on new developer starts and the size of the DS/PSP/iPhone OS markets. If you have other data, post it, but don't squeal like a stuck hog because you don't like mine, and don't attribute malicious motives just because I proved your emotionalist opinion wrong with facts.]

Last, you keep saying that several big developers are making games for the iPad, yet you fail to mention any. I’m not sure you even know the difference between a developer and a publisher.

[Why do you think I need to write an extensive Wikipedia entry about the major developers and development houses writing for the iPhone OS when its common knowledge? This isn't a secret. And in another post by another troll (insisting that Capcom and Konami would never make iPhone video games) I did list some major publishers, including Capcom and Konami and EA and Sega and there's a lot more (and what a dick you are for writing what you did, seriously, you don't need to be an asshat just to disagree with me)]

But speaking of big developers, let’s talk about Nintendo. Nintendo has had a vice grip on this market for the past 20 years, and over those 20 years they’ve built up game franchises such as Pokemon, Metroid, Mario and Zelda.

[Well they failed big time with the GameCube. So the last 20 years have not been without failure nor a vice grip. The PS2 ruled long and hard. And Nintendo is now largely confined to the "casual gaming" market targeting kids and older people, outside of the "serious gamers" who prefer the PS3/360/PC Gaming. So your entire argument bites itself in the tail here. Maybe you want to tear it all down and start over. ]

These games will always sell, and the iPad will never have them. Hell, Pokemon alone is more than enough to keep the DS afloat. Nintendo has fanboys who are even more rabid than you are; the iPad won’t have any effect on Nintendo’s handheld profits. Don’t try to bring up the chart you posted; percent of market revenue is not the same as total revenue. Now the PSP? That’s a different story. It’s not as strong here as it is in other markets but if anyone’s going to blow it out of the water it will be Nintendo, not Apple.

[Nintendo appears to have helped keep the PSP from every getting very popular (part of the credit goes to Sony too), but the iPhone OS is the last blow, and that's why Sony did this last ditch effort to move games from its UMD plastic disc strategy to one that aped the App Store, too little too late. Clearly, Sony thinks there was a major threat coming from Apple's iPhone OS platform, even if you stand there screaming that it's not and cannot be (read some gamer trade rags, everyone knows this). ]

This was by far your most egregious claim, but it wasn’t the only bad one. However, I’m not going to even touch the rest of this article, it’s not worth the time. It’s obvious that if Apple released the iRock you would still hail it as the most revolutionary invention in human history.

[When people tear into me as if they are grandiose experts in a subject and are going to straighten me out, and then actually deliver a feeble and completely contradictory pile of crap as their own position, and then say they don't have enough time to point out all the other errors I make, I don't lose a lot of sleep over it. - Dan]

122 danpoarch { 04.06.10 at 8:17 pm }

Bummer. I was following the political talk but the right wingers ran away with their tale between their legs. Tail, I mean tail. I miss smart Republicans. And I miss Dems that are dedicated to action. Government is a business much bigger than anyone outside the beltway can comprehend. Any dumbass that thinks the Republicans are doing anything but pandering to Tea Partiers to stay alive are damn fools. The R’s blow as much cash as the Dems. Look, when you get elected and you arrive in Washington your soul dies and you vote the party line to stay alive. And both parties, as in the staffers on the Hill, are chock full of idiots. Oh, and the Tea Party is what happens when the comfort of living in the first world gets to be a burden. All this 24/7 NASCAR and FoxNews can really wear a tough hard-workin’ guy down. Man, those spoiled little assholes need to get back to work.

Where was I?

Let’s see, free market philosophy proven by cigarettes in WWII and Russia? Aren’t those cases of extreme regulation spawning improvised markets of necessity, so once again, constraints build the marketplace. Much like the most successful creative projects (iPad) require focus, editing and sacrifice. As in, working firmly within the box to maximize utilization of said box. Man if we taught art
& design seriously in public schools we’d make better business people.

No, that’s not what I wanted to say… Oh wait…

Dan, there’s something that, unless I missed something above, no one has mentioned yet. The iPad will kill Windows. Microsoft will struggle to build a better finger, but the dyke will break much quicker than they know. I know it might sound far fetched, but ask a lifer at IBM how quickly they stopped making typewriters.

Think of it this way, Windows users won’t pay more than $500-$700 for a computer. All they do on it is email, browse the web, play games, download music, and perhaps do some work in Office. The iPad does all of these things for the same price.

Yes, it lacks the frame-rate for gaming, but really, is frame rate something so important or is it really just pissing match fodder.

No, Numbers is not Excel, but really, most complicated spreadsheet activities are better suited for either a modern analysis app or a database app. So yes, there will be those that cling to their Dell, but I’ll bet they also own an iPad. Same for pages.

I’m really trying to be fair but I can’t think of anything else that Windows can do that can’t easily be done on an iPad. I realize that anything computationally challenging will stay on desktops, but 90% of what is done on desktops can be done on an iPad or similar.

I’m painting with a broad brush, I realize this, but it’s not just the iPad that will kill Windows, it’s the decentralized computing experience that puts a chip, a pipe and a screen where you need it, in your hands. Microsoft DOES NOT have a strategy to combat this.

Windows 2012, codenamed: Dirt Nap.

Fuck Windows.

123 somefagfromg { 04.06.10 at 9:07 pm }

Ah, a reasonable discussion! With the person that wrote the article, no less! Very fair, Mr. Dilger.

Let’s go counterpoints, no?

>[My use of hyperbole with the word "kill" means 'suck the life out of,' not 'efface from the planet' -Dan]
Fair enough. I’ll take that.

>[Yes, having a 5" circle of plastic comes in real freaking handy when you want to play something on a airplane, doesn't it?]
Well, many people have laptops already. Most of them fit on tray tables. I would argue that the iPad could be more ergonomic in some situations. However, people have substantial collections in DVD and aren’t willing to rebuy every movie.

I could see a big market for iPad rentals, though. VERY convenient. Rent a movie at the airport, enjoy it on the flight. I will concede that some aspects are exciting.

I would also like to note that I misstated earlier; iTunes DOES have rentals.

>[Clearly, plastic circles are and will be, the only way we ever distribute video]
I never said that. They are by and large the preferred way. Current restrictions on bandwidth in the US, compatibility issues, convenience, ease of sharing, etc. have made movie rentals less appealing

>[just as society has staunchly preferred the CD to MP3s.]
The MP3 was unencumbered. It has some patent issues, but had very reasonable file sizes for the quality tradeoff. And it played on almost everything. It never had DRM.

Compared to movies, a field where everything comes digitally wrapped and only plays on certain devices…you can’t leave Apple’s walled garden with FairPlay on apps, games (guess they’re apps, but still an important example), movies, etc… you can buy a DVD player from any manufacturer and have your DVD play.

Perhaps Apple will be able to use their influence to get DRM-Free movies, like they did with music (it seems that the movie industry is more resistant to change than the music industry). Or a common DRM system that works with multiple manufacturers.

>[Err, I guess you're wrong on that.]
I don’t think the snippiness is merited. Nor do I believe that either of our opinions are complete fact that is gospel and will be shouted from the heavens. It’s a debate. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe that my tone was pretty non-personal.

>[Yeah, everyone wants to pay $300 for single purpose devices that look kind of paper like, but are just as just as useless at presenting video and interactivity as dead trees. ]
Borders announced a sub-$150 6″ eReader at CES. The price on these is falling. I would expect to see the 6″ ones under $100 within a couple years. The benefits of the display technology, the simplicity of the device, and the fact that they will be cheaper devices to break/lose, will probably continue to market growth. Not to mention battery life in the weeks instead of hours…

I don’t argue that the iPad has benefits. However, I strongly disagree that the iPad will “kill” the eReader market. Far from it.

(on paper discussion)
>[But they cost lots of money. ]
2 cents a page, color is getting down to ten cents. You can pass the color copy around, and the cost of it getting stepped on or dropped is much less, and they never require batteries. You can mark it up in many ways. Ways that an app developer may not think of.

Don’t get me wrong, more interactive presentations and less paper have been market trends.

Replacing paper is difficult. We all wish that we had one clean little device to replace paper. And it’ll happen. Will the iPad kill paper? That I doubt.

>[Note that the context I provided was about creating mountains of papers for meetings]
And I’m sure a LOT of people would agree with you. Paper sucks. I can’t manage mounds of paper. I have a document feed scanner because I can’t deal with the paper. However, paper has arguable benefits, which, in the next 5 years (this is cowardly as a prediction, but I’m unlikely to be wrong- nice benefit) will mean paper will continue to dominate. Which means I’m less sure how the iPad specifically will dominate as a device.

>[which can much more efficiently be done via digital documents.]
In some ways, but not others. If I’ve missed anything you can think of, or you disagree, I’d like to debate it with you.

>[The paperless office is probably a ways off, but paper copies have slowly been increasing with email and PDF.]
We’re 1 and 1 on the mistakes at this point (I said iTunes can’t rent films, you said increasing paper copies- both mistakes. We knew what we meant to say).

Yes, but it makes the “iPad, the destroyer” monkier less applicable. Technology will replace paper. The iPad as a device? Much less certain.

>[The reason textbook publishers can be insane is that there's little competition. (etc.)]
Never argued. The main point is that the price differential and restrictions (and noability to resell) make eTextbooks unappetizing.

>[But lots of people can create digital textbooks when the publishing and the ability to consume them from iPad means that competition will now flourish.]
Despite the more open market for alternative textbooks – which is a plus- the textbook companies offer teachers a ton of perks, software integration (specifically, online testing banks + quizzes), custom books (they say the specific prof made the slides on the printout), etc. mean that the big dogs are going to keep a stronghold on textbooks.

>[If you're still under the impression that iPad isn't readable in bright sunlight, go outside and try one, and stop spreading misinformation. There's no visibility problem in bright sunlight. It's not OLED.]
I’ve seen them. They are much less readable in sunlight (still readable, but to a much lesser degree. The ambient light sensor detects it and puts the display on full throttle, which zaps the battery. I know as an iPod Touch owner. I had an opportunity to see a new iPad owner outside this weekend and the device was much less readable than a traditional text.

Unlike the OLED of the Zune HD display, it’s not impossible.

>[As another reader pointed out, what iPad will really kill is Microsoft's ability to jack up the price of netbooks, as it hoped to do with Windows 7. ]
Microsoft’s been behind the limiting of netbook specs in order to qualify for the cheap Win 7 Starter licenses that make the devices have any margin at all. These netbooks are all competing on price, so I don’t think MS has had any effort to jack up netbook prices. Of course, if you have any information to the contrary, I’d be very interested to read it- I’m open.

>[nobody is making money on netbooks, not PC makers, not Microsoft]
Well, not a LOT. They are lower margin devices. Dell seemed happy with their sales.

Microsoft makes nothing – the licenses are given away for under $5 to maintain margins (with spec limitations to prevent the use of those licenses on full PCs).

>By setting a $500 price ceiling on the category
Considering the sense of “kill” we discussed earlier, yes. The price ceiling for the majority of the market (geeks will always pay extra for thin-and-light) is there now. Most netbooks I see are well under that, though.

>Apple will make sure netbook makers can only go out of business selling cheap hardware that can’t do anything but play Flash crap, slowly.
Let’s step back from that. I bought an EEE PC 701- tiny keys, an underclocked celeron, and a very small SSD, $400. The new netbooks have large hard drives, a good chunk of RAM, powerful yet efficient Atom processors, good size screens and keyboards that aren’t chicklet keys, good battery, and they’re half the price. They can do most of what a big PC can. The newer ones are shipping with ION and Tegra chips, which, in combination with the DirectX Video Acceleration in Flash 10.1 (allowing them to play back HD video without stuttering, but without the power consumption of full dedicated graphics), should ensure that there’s a spot for netbooks.

At the same time, they’ll hurt. People buying cheap media consumption devices have an offering that’s superior in some aspects. However, as a good computer- that still runs a full fledged os, and has a real keyboard- netbooks will have a place. I think that it’ll curb netbook growth, not put them out to the pasture.

>[The iPod touch/iPhone already killed the PSP]
Sony’s inability to release good games, inability to keep the firmware locked down (the demographic it attracted was the most tech-savvy), inability to advertise it well, etc. killed the PSP.

>[The DS is dead ended]
A five year old platform is reaching the end of its life. This doesn’t strike me as gloom and doom for Nintendo, just a handheld console lifespan.

>[with Nintendo scrambling to throw out the XL ]
I didn’t get the point of the XL. I guess they wanted to attract the “non-gamers” that the Wii won over. It strikes me as a misstep. Like the GBA Micro, or the Virtual Boy.

>[and announce the 3D.]
I certainly feel Nintendo was pressured into the announcement to make people not worry about the future of Nintendo’s handhelds.

>[Yawn.]
Nintendo has made great gaming devices. I felt that the DSi was a distraction from that- the web browser is TERRIBLE, and it’s not a web browsing device. A lot of people laughed at the dual screens/touchscreen of the DS, but it was used in very innovative ways and became highly popular.

>[You can whine about not begin able to get an iPad into your pocket]
I am entitled to that, I would hope. Technically, I could play larger games. I have a laptop too. I don’t see much overlap in the middle. The situations in which I’m not carrying my laptop rarely have me carrying around a bag to hold an iPad in. My DS fits comfortably into my pocket when I go…well, wherever. Perhaps I’m myopic.

>[but do you think you look cool with a DS in your pocket?]
Most people don’t notice that I have a DS Lite in my pocket until I pull it out. And most people don’t care when I play it, I don’t get many compliments, but I hardly get stares or weird looks. I’m just using an electronic device.

>[all they do is play games. Single use stuff is dead.]
Never underestimate the ability of a smaller device to do one thing very well for much cheaper. Keep in mind that Nintendo sells a lot of DSes to minors- who can destroy anything. A 9.7″ glass screen is going to get pulverized. I’ve seen DSes go down stairs with no harm, I’ve found games left outside for over a year that still play. Nintendo knows their niche.

>[Can't respond to that because you didn't really articulate anything.]
Well, I’ll try to articulate more clearly.

My university uses a single use device. It’s designed like a price gun. It runs Windows Mobile. And you can scan a barcode or swipe an ID and lookup pretty much any information on any room, person, etc. on campus.

The multiple forms of input (card, barcode, etc.) and open development (the Uni can improve the software any time, or get updates- I believe Apple has some sort of enterprise distribution process) allows for quick updating. The tech guys tell me they get crazy battery life (large battery integrated into the unit)

Now, the iPad wouldn’t work in that situation, for a number of reasons. Form factor is totally different. Battery life. Licensing of peripherals. Limited hardware manufacturer (someone making a solution has to get the iPad in Apple). Serviceability is also typically a concern.

As far as larger examples, where the iPad’s form factor would be comfortable – no ability for pen input (big for the medical field), one hardware manufacturer, attractive target for theft (most of the tablet PCs I see are made purposely clunky in medical fields), no involved Windows Networking, no background apps…the feasibility of redesigning a network around a new device isn’t great. They use tablet PCs at my local medical group for the reasons listed above.

Mainly, due to the limitations of software and multitasking, I kind of doubt that the iPad is going to swoop in and take everything out. And existing infrastructure.

If I rambled, let me know. Or missed the whole point.

>[Who predicted Apple TV was going to be in every home? I think you just made that up.]
Well, hyperbole. There were critics that predicted that the writing was on the wall for cable in the next couple years and the TV was going to be the next iPod in the segment. Dvorak probably made such a prediction – again, he’s a career troll for page hits. He declared DOCSIS (cable internet) to be “a solution to a problem that doesn’t exist. No one wants cable internet” (paraphrase from memory).

>[No, it means a lot of new users and young people will experience computing where Office isn't the standard, and isn't even around]
We’ll see. Microsoft’s stranglehold via cheap educational licensing especially has trained a generation of users on Office and Windows.

>[Any they'll do fine without it. ]
Maybe. Maybe not. I question the level of document creation that will occur on iPads versus simple document viewing and minor editing. I don’t think it’ll spur any revolutions, or hurt Office’s marketshare significantly.

>[That's a major problem for Microsoft's third monopoly]
I disagree. People will still email Microsoft Word/Excel/etc. documents to each other and do a couple edits. There have been alternatives and those alternatives pose more of a threat to Microsoft. Office Live and the new collaboration features in Office 2010 are answers to the bigger threats: Google Docs and other competitors.

>[Obviously is isn't going to dry up and blow away]
Definitely on the same page here. Even if we agreed on how major it was I think we’d still both agree on this. There will be no instance in which every Microsoft Office user gives it up overnight.

>[but plenty of people will have no reason to pay for Office that now do (or otherwise would have)]
The iPad is an appliance. I see it as more of a complement to laptops, not a replacement. I think more users would pirate Office than buy an iPad for cheaper office.

>[They have WiFi on planes these days. ]
It’s satellite based. Ventrilo (VoIP conferencing) was painful on it, well under a megabit. It’s for web browsing, not downloading movies. Which could be a benefit of the iPad.

What will be interesting is seeing if Wi-Fi will remain free. The uplink ain’t cheap…

>[Majority of searches on the desktop, but not mobile. ]
True. This holds some value for Google. I wonder how many users would take Apple changing the default search engine though, especially if they removed Google as an option. If they didn’t – how many would change back?

>[Despite all the hype, Android only sees 9% of smartphone traffic]
We both know it’s not the only platform that has Google as the current default search.

>[while Apple has 24% of unit sales and 50% of all mobile web traffic.]
Statistics I’d like to see. Were these the AdMob statistics from a while back? I seem to recall shockingly high data from some advertising firm indicating a heavy iPhone mobile web presence…

>[If Google loses access to that, it loses the mobile search/ads market.]
Maybe if Google removes the Google App from the App Store, and they don’t allow changing of the search (and Google’s algorithim is VERY good for obscure searches). And Google has a lot of people already on board. Several companies, including Mozilla, have revenue sharing deals on searches with Google already. I wonder if Apple wants to enter that market. It would be interesting…

124 frankeee { 04.07.10 at 4:00 am }

Extremely strong article, Daniel!

Now since I do do trips between Australia, Europe and the US rather frequently there is only one thing to hope for: iPhone OS licensed to the back seat entertainment system of carriers like Singapore Airlines, Thai Airways, Emirates Airlines and last but not least Quantas (however the latter rather work on their aircrafts first).

Catch!
PS: just watching Ferris Buehler on DVD, as always with me that format craps out at 85% into any movie – in fact: buried! Handbrake to the rescue!

125 frankeee { 04.07.10 at 4:07 am }

PSS: there ought to be a restriction on comment word count here. No122 took commenting to the next level of self-explanation. Perhaps an iBook submission might serve well here … just a thought!
And yes: I am guilty of not having read it all – just a habit of mine!

126 frankeee { 04.07.10 at 4:23 am }

Oh, and if I may jump into the conversation:
Nintendo did the ever greatest thing with GameBoy – I had one for years. A remarkable device! The iPod of gaming devices when I was in an apprenticeship and had to travel a lot to get there!
Anything DS to me was a cheap plastic device with two screens – I mean: why? It’s not like it delivered a 3D experience (oh yes I heard about the 3DS – can it go more horrible?). A friend of mine bought a DS at an OpShop (for none Australians: Opportunity Shop) for 5 bucks. Wasn’t worth it if you ask me.

As for the ‘Office’ topic: yep! Daniel is correct on this one! MS Office reminds me of my old car I used to have: let’s fix that rotten exhaust pipe every year, polish it and give it a nice towel around, Problem is: it ony gets bigger, not better! The mobile/iPad version of Pages seems like buying a brand new titanium enforced latest of it’s range super exhaust – at the price the welding machine would cost me to fix the old one. True: MS Office not dead, but a zombie!

127 somefagfromg { 04.07.10 at 5:08 am }

frankeee,

Who is to say I can’t post my diatribe in the comments section here? :)

128 TheMacAdvocate { 04.07.10 at 7:33 am }

I found your whack-a-mole in comments almost as entertaining as the article itself.

It’s not so much Hotmail users (although it is a pretty decent flag) as it is being a DS/PSPtard. They’re fairly easy to spot and possess the tenacity of the most fervent M$ apologist.

To them I say: if you want to come off as 13 year olds in public for the rest of your lives, that’s cool. Don’t think in 2 years when Apple is selling a device that does 20x as much for $300 that developers are going to give a flying shit about your platform. You can hear the squeals of the rats flying off the ships already.

129 Aframe { 04.07.10 at 8:50 am }

QUOTE: “….. thanks for being a jerk, as its so hard to come by anonymous, arrogant, and ignorant turds on the Internet.” – Dan ENDQUOTE

PRICELESS – This kind of insight and judgement is hard to come buy these days, on the internet or elsewhere. If there was an award for an appropriate “riposte”, the Nobel Smack Down Prize for example, Daniel Eran Dilger’s Roughly Drafted would be a nomination. Keep up the good work!!!

One more thing. Let’s not forget that Office for the iPad costs $30, Office for the PC costs $300. Cheapskate America will vote with its dollars, and the iPad will be even more successful than even Dan the Man can imagine.

130 Aframe { 04.07.10 at 10:09 am }

“PRICELESS – This kind of insight and judgement is hard to come buy these days”

How did that typo get there? Of course it should have read “hard to come by “.

I blame Bill Gates ……….

131 shadash { 04.07.10 at 11:28 am }

Aframe,
Did you find any polyps while you were up there?

132 somefagfromg { 04.07.10 at 11:52 am }

Oh boy, some interesting comments here.

In response to TheMacAdvocate:
Calling people “DS/PSPtard[s]” does not automatically make your points correct.

Nintendo has several successful franchises and has done well for themselves. Their consoles are VERY abuse tolerant, and are currently 1/3 the price of an iPad, with backwards compatibility for all your old games, and longer battery life.

As far as young adults…the iPhone/iPod Touch has taken much of that market away. I find myself using my DS less and less, and I don’t have any plans to buy the new 3D handheld. Adults tend to do less portable gaming as a whole, and as such don’t see the merit in a separate device.

However, lines such as “if you want to come off as 13 year olds in public for the rest of your lives, that’s cool.” detract from the validity of the point that Apple’s devices have the potential to lure many users from dedicated gaming devices, and instead make you come off as the very fanboy you decried earlier.

frankee:
The number of people I know who stick with non-current versions of Office is growing. It’s not fair to say that Microsoft has done nothing with the suite, however. Office 2007′s much loved/hated ribbon was a slight adjustment but put stuff buried in submenus up front while keeping everything organized- I liked it. And Office 2010 has some REALLY cool collaboration features- you can have 6 people editing different parts of a document at the same exact time and have it all edit live. There are some videos if you don’t want to try the beta.

Microsoft’s trying to keep Office innovative. However most word processors will do what most users need. While I think Apple will be successful in selling their office apps on the iPad, I hardly see them as replacing Office sales.

As someone who owned a DS and upgraded to a DS Lite, I’m inclined to disagree. The Ouendan/Elite Beat Agents were just one of many games to use the dual screen and touch screens well. I got a lot of mileage out of my DS.

danpoarch:
I sincerely doubt the iPad is going to kill Windows. Backwards compatibility, multitasking, hardware compatibility, etc. all make this a very bold claim- it’s not impossible, but I wouldn’t bet money on it.

The iPad does a lot of those functions well, and it will serve its users well. However, it doesn’t have the same software ecosystem, can’t multitask, etc. – it’s not a full fledged replacement.

Frame rates do matter. 30 is needed for “fluid” gaming, and 60 gives “realistic” gaming – it’s what the makers of the Ratchet & Clank series always targeted (they said they were giving it up for the next game). Eventually, it DOES become a pissing match.

I’ve made my points on my thoughts on Office before… that said, I agree that the iPad is a complement to a full fledged computer, not a replacement.

90% is a bold claim and that’s going to depend on the user for sure. The App Store is great, but the breadth of software on regular PCs is just huge.

As far as Microsoft not being able to combat it…why do you think they have their fingers in so many pies? They’re getting digital distribution down- they’re finally making money on the Xbox. They’re always trying new stuff on the web, and consumer electronics- often failing to Apple, to their chagrin. The size of the company results in a lot of infighting- the Office team HATED the tablet team and has slowed integration of tablet features in Office for years.

They know that they have issues. They know that they could become as irrelevant as the many companies they buried. They are scared, and they are working to try to make sure that doesn’t happen. Still, MS still doesn’t have appliances down right. They need some focus.

133 TheMacAdvocate { 04.07.10 at 1:53 pm }

I’d feel much more compelled to respond to your non-points if my eyes didn’t immediately jump from your avatar to the term “detract from the validity of”. Kind of sums it up.

134 Alan { 04.07.10 at 2:35 pm }

I doubt the iPad will kill or destroy anything. There will always be a market for people that want more functionality than Apple provides, at least in their first few revisions of a new product. Sure I would love to have an extra USB port, an iSight camera, a memory slot to expand storage, and a few improvements to the OS that might come with the 4.0 announcement tomorrow….but none of those are deal breakers. I think the iPad’s biggest competition will not come from netbooks, gaming devices, kindle, or other tablet devices soon to be released. The biggest competition will be from iPhone/iPod Touch/ and other smart phone owners who are relatively happy with their devices. They are the hardest sell. My phone already does everything I need when away from my desktop so I will not buy the 1st generation iPad. But once the second version is released and some of the shortcomings are addressed I can see myself buying an iPad. Since I can even use my phone as a 3G to wifi hotspot, it will probably even extend the life of my phone by another year or more.

135 Chipotle { 04.07.10 at 3:40 pm }

“Let’s not forget that Office for the iPad costs $30, Office for the PC costs $300. Cheapskate America will vote with its dollars…”

If it were that simple nobody would be using Office now, dude. There have been countless office programs on the cheap. Many of them were pretty bad, but some of them were pretty good. Here’s the thing: everyone says that 80% of the users only use 20% of the features in Microsoft Word or Excel, but it’s not the same 20% for all of those users. Anyone who uses a word processor regularly is likely to have one or two “dealbreaker” features, without which they will not use a program no matter how good its other features may be. For some people it’s automatic table of contents generation; for some people it’s footnotes; for some people it’s the ability to divide a document into logical sections that can use slightly different layout features (a report with multiple sections, or a novel with multiple chapters). If you have the kind of job where you spend four or more hours a day working with a particular kind of program, “almost” does not cut it. Period.

Pages on the iPad, according to Apple’s own support document, doesn’t support footnotes, endnotes, tables of contents, change tracking, and multiple-page tables. Keynote drops all the presentation notes (which is really dismaying, given that it would be perfect for it to display them on its screen while outputting to the VGA screen), and drops any embedded audio. Neither Keynote nor Word support 3D Charts. And neither Keynote nor Numbers can export back to Microsoft Office, even though they can import PowerPoint and Excel respectively.

Obviously, these are all software issues and they can be potentially addressed in future releases. (Or, of course, they can be addressed by third party programs, like Mariner Calc.) But I can absolutely guarantee you that “Cheapskate America” is not going to be migrating en masse to the iPad with these limitations any time soon.

136 TheMacAdvocate { 04.07.10 at 6:23 pm }

@ulicar
I can imagine the “English as a second language” thing might be somewhat of a hinderance when trying to make points in comments. That doesn’t excuse you from being stupid.

The iPad sold twice as many units in a truncated opening weekend than the original iPhone, a device with a comparable price point, did did in its first month. Your Cube analogy is probably about as far off as it can be: the iPad outsold all the Cubes sold – ever – by a 2:1 margin over the same weekend.

The micro shrinkage in iPhone market share is due solely to 3.0 being a little “long in the tooth”. That will be remedied tom’w.

Your non-existent logic, nearly incomprehensible syntax and personal attacks are like sandpaper to my eyes. Kindly pick up a copy of Rosetta Stone and half a brain before you hit up the comments section of this blog next time.

137 SunnyGuy53 { 04.07.10 at 7:04 pm }

>Now iPhone is shrinking, while RIM and Google are growing in the smart phone world. Could it be that multitasking IS important, that FLASH IS important, that …

If multitasking (which the iPhone does have for some apps) and Flash were as important, as you suggest, would the iPhone have skyrocketed to take more than 25% of the smartphone market in record time? I don’t think so.

I would categorize the iPhone’s marketshare being down a tenth of a percent, over a recent 3 month period, as non-news. But whatever floats your boat.

And if you want to compare the iPad to the Mac Cube, then sorry, but you bias is showing. There is zero similarity.

It seems you’re grasping at straws.

I know, don’t feed the trolls. Sorry about that.

Sunny Guy

138 ulicar { 04.07.10 at 7:22 pm }

@macadvocate compared to expected 700000 units, it failed. Most conservative estimates 400000 – 500000 and it still failed. iPad failed well below the expectations, no question about it. And no truncated weekend. Those 300K actually count in “sales included deliveries of pre-ordered iPads to customers, deliveries to channel partners and sales at Apple Retail Stores” :) It was the longest “first day” in the history of Apple :) It lasted almost two months :)

Original iPhone was not covered with the hype surrounding iPad, so it is not really surprise that it outsold the original iPhone. Compare it with the iPhone3G. Apple sold 1 million of those phones the first weekend :) iPad FAILED, and that is fact :)

@ SunnyGuy53 I would recommend going to the shop and getting iPad, because it sold so well, Apple will keep it in their offer, sure :)

139 cgp { 04.07.10 at 9:12 pm }

I hope it will kill the application code sent over the
wires crapology that I’ve detested abount web-based apps
ever since they infested IT.

It will revive compiled code, yea, yippie.
We will now have a huge blossoming of functionality
of applications connected to the web.
Note that a flash plugin is just one of oh-cannot
put this in the javascript code-in-the-wires nonsense
that will go.

Example, bullet SDK physics combined with decent
graphics rendering (on a small scale).

140 cgp { 04.07.10 at 9:20 pm }

Oh one more.

It kills the computer!!

The computer disappears. This nerd-based contraption
with its idio(t)syncrasies gives way to a universal device.

141 iPad esordisce, applausi del pubblico « GmG’s Weblog { 04.07.10 at 11:46 pm }

[...] in scena degna dell’esperienza con cui Apple ha abituato il suo pubblico ormai dai tempi del primo iPhone, ma che oltre a basarsi su dati parziali (non vengono infatti forniti quelli relativi alle [...]

142 quicksite { 04.08.10 at 2:58 am }

Daniel, you have a powerful mind, a deep sense of context, a very engaging writing style, and a brash leap-taking confidence.

I found your whole analysis and article very convincing, even if some of it is slightly over the top, and you would probably admit so if under the influence of drinks or relaxants. Glossy brochures? No, not dead. Especially in your example of auto dealerships.

Conceptually your observation is right-on, but until the ipad can be rolled up and stuck in a back pocket, or folded, or dropped to the ground or made available for $25 or so, very doubtful consumers of means “on the go” have any interest at all in being laden with a device they have to “be careful” with. It makes more sense that they’d be handed whatever the latest version of a usb flash drive will be to plug into their own computer at home or yes, even ipad… But sitting down at dealership to take in the grand presentation? No way. Oh, not that? The dealer sends them out on loaner and expects they be returned by x date? What kind of buyer wants that constraint or pressure.

You’re off on that one, though the concept of glossy presentations on an ipad trumping glossy presentations on paper? I’ll buy that. But dead in this case is one of the few laughable points in an otherwise really provocative gutsy article (and yes, designed to be controversial, = traffic, = ad dollars, = attention.)

But that’s a trifle compared to your alleged obituary for Android. Sorry, but it seems very clear you have very little experience in Things Androidy. I happen to be a Mac user since 1986, so i can’t be accused of being a clueless Windows fanboy. But the rapid & total dismissal of Android strikes me as beyond brash, and bordering on not even hubristic, but rather more on just plain stupid. No way you ARE stupid based on the calibre of your thoughtful analysis. But to come to that conclusion really, to me, suggests faulty wiring somewhere in your head? (were you dropped recently?)

For ease of reference for anyone who happens to read this comment: Behold:

(( Android has one trick, and its a mess. The phone hardware wasn’t designed right, the OS has architectural problems, and the app model presents major security issues. All customers care about is what it can do. But Android can’t play sophisticated games, nor is anyone buying enough apps to turn that situation around. ))

a. define the “one trick”
b. defend every statement following that.

If you have it down totally, which you would have to in order to be so bold as to cremate Android so soon in its growth cycle, I am betting you can convince me. So convince me. Otherwise, a big fat gaping hole in an otherwise superb and brilliant envisionment of the next 5 to 10 years.

[The "one trick" Android has is selling smartphones. In the context, I was talking about how the iPod touch (nearly half of Apple's iPhone OS installed base, and statistically a population that buys 2x as many apps as smartphone users) and (potentially) iPad are supporting the App Store. Android has nothing but smartphone users. There is talk about tablets, but none have been sold yet.

So Android has much less strategy laid out, and much less holding up its Android Market. It has no significant-sized apps due to memory allocation issues (AM apps can only be loaded into system RAM, and not into SD Cards, where most Android phones have most of their storage. There's just lots of serious limitations that nobody mentions because nobody wants to speak ill of the slow platform.

There are no big games, no games from big developers; Android apps are hobbyist fare; they're what developers wanted to do, not what the market wants to buy. iPhone haters talk about Fart Apps and how there's so much hype behind Apple, but Android is pretty much nothing but Fart Apps and hype. It's not some new market, it's just the historical WiMo and LG crap phones buyers now shifted over to Android apps. And I believe its almost all in the US, thanks to Verizon's iPhone void. Android has been around just about as long as iPhone (came out a couple months after). So it's had lots of time to catch up. But it hasn't; it's just eaten up the slightly more pitiful Palm OS and WiMo. What it will do remains to be seen, but I've lost any faith that Android will do anything but slobber through 2010 as an increasingly tragic figure. Of course, I can be wrong. We'll see. - Dan ]

143 gctwnl { 04.08.10 at 5:44 am }

It is interesting to see how the Apple G4 Cube is often used in argument to raise the spectre of Apple failing at something cool. Interesting for two reasons: 1. you need to go 10 years back to find a decent flop, 2. today’s mini is in fact just what the Cube was (even less changeable), only less cool in packaging.

Comparing the iPad with the G4 Cube is just silly for too many reasons than can be stated here.

Given the apparent frenzy to create apps for this platform (and given that the iPhone became succesful even before it was possible to have third party apps) it looks pretty good for the iPad. Nothing is certain in the marketplace, but given that development and the fact that possible pad-competitors are years behind (they might create nice hardware but have neither the software or iTunes/app store ecosystem to come near the functionality and user experience of iPad + third party), and given that we are talking about WiFi-only, US-only distribution still and a world to conquer, I am optimistic about the iPad’s future.

144 Aframe { 04.08.10 at 7:29 am }

Chipotle { 04.07.10 at 3:40 pm } quoted:
“Let’s not forget that Office for the iPad costs $30, Office for the PC costs $300. Cheapskate America will vote with its dollars…”
and wrote:
If it were that simple nobody would be using Office now, dude. ….. “Cheapskate America” is not going to be migrating en masse to the iPad with these limitations any time soon.

Interesting response. Of course, there is more functionality right now on the desktop PC, we are only just starting with the finger-pointing device and the iPad productivity apps can only get better. But the fact that even so we are almost there with most of the functionality, and that the hardware and software package is something like half of the cost, means that it will happen. Not “anytime soon” as in this year, possibly not even next year, but within five years ….. probably.

If Chipotle and others want to be part of the future, rather than picking over the bones of the past, working with the direction Apple’s iPad has pointed us to could be a good career move.

145 curiositrey { 04.08.10 at 7:39 am }

One more thing it will kill: miserable tech support requests from crazy relatives. My wife’s aunt wants me to repair her Internet connection, I can’t wait….She has a 17 pound IBM Thinkpad with a 56k modem – and she connects to AOL with her handy 25 foot long phone cord. I have spent numerous afternoons and evening resetting that thing…I can picture an entire segment of the population buying the 3G iPads, syncing them at home, and then handing them off to in-laws, family friends, etc., and that will be the end of that. Or should I buy her a net book with Linux so that she doesn’t end up trapped in the woeful stability of the iPad/iPhone OS? I can picture her during our phone calls, when I ask if her to reset her router, going out to her husband’s workshop and picking up the power tools.

So the crazy old people are gonna end up with them, our kids think that their lapsers, psp’s, and Nintendo DS’s are crap already, they fight over their shared 10 minutes a day on the iPad all the time.

I am eagerly awaiting all of the new tech rollouts by apple competitors now…If a new nintendo game isn’t ported for iPad, if CS5 won’t run on the iPad, why are you releasing it? Just seems like classic inertial American business practice.

146 quicksite { 04.08.10 at 2:49 pm }

Dan writes in reply to my questions:

(( [The “one trick” Android has is selling smartphones. In the context, I was talking about how the iPod touch (nearly half of Apple’s iPhone OS installed base, and statistically a population that buys 2x as many apps as smartphone users) and (potentially) iPad are supporting the App Store. Android has nothing but smartphone users. There is talk about tablets, but none have been sold yet. ))

** Dan, the issue of #s of device-types (relating to different market sectors) running android, as you’ve laid it out, assumes that the success of android as an open source OS for touchscreen devices, is predicated upon app sales. Your whole argument there seems tipsy because from a consumer’s point of view, apps, and more importantly, “significant apps” (as you allege iPhone has but Android doesn’t — very arguable as you provide zero evidence, just a statement as though fact) — are not the primary drivers of why people are buying android-powered phones.

How can you be so short-sighted or even tunnel-visioned about this? I truly suspect you are driving your argument here based on reviews and other 2nd or even 3rd hand information. I would be more persuaded if you listed all the android devices you have used for more than 2-minutes at a trade show. I’d like to see your list if all devices you have used for at least 3 days in your total possession, where you are free to experience the device 100%, vs some quickie “try a few things then conclude based on generalization and assumptions.”

If you present your list, and it you can substantiate issues with user experience that you deem unacceptable to mainstream consumers, then I am still all ears. Not to be a smartass, but I think you are busted here. I don’t think you HAVE any appreciable experience with android-based phones… and in particular, android phones running HTC sense UI.

For if you did, it would be rather unfathomable that you can dismiss all these phones like the HTC Hero (especially the European GSM models which were in the marketplace 6 months prior to USA’s uglied-down Sprint abomination, or Verizon’s Eris), but even more important the just released HTC Desire.

I’m calling you on this because I think your premise is very flawed re your criteria for what makes “android” a success or a dead platform. It’s not all about apps, and for you to shoehorn that idea to your readers as though cut and dry, that’s disingenuous, or, again, slightly ignorant of the total user experience around android.

My counter-arguments to you here are not to bust your overall premise — because as clearly stated, I think your analysis, minus my two objections, is a home run, and really reflects some powerful thinking ahead about ripple effects and ultimate cessation of viability of certain tools and devices that get wiped off the map by iPad.

I just think you either hyperbolized for dramatic effect (drives readership, admit it), or out of a real lack of authoritative knowledge re Android, and that’s what I am addressing here. Because I otherwise agree with your overall analysis of the many usage areas where iPad will likely kill off older dead tech or delivery systems.

You won’t agree with me of course, because what tech writer EVER agrees with a challenger who busts their premise… You have to simply fortify your original stance lest it be seen you are submissive to information and arguments that expose a lack of knowledge in a key subject matter area.

You’re wrong about android. The android sweep of the Chritsmas season, and its subsequent 2010 increasing market penetration, helped immensely by Redmond’s absolute failures, shows that users LIKE android phones — a bunch of them.

And it is there that your premise is shot to pieces. But the good thing here is i have discovered your magazine. I’m here in SF, as are you, yet i had not been a reader til i saw this article linked from an australian IT website which had argued “A doze things the iPad is missing, and why you should wait til version 2.0″ — mind you, NOT trashing it al all, just pointing out some first release problems, yes expected, but nonetheless causing problems — like no USB — like no compatibility with MS word for officeplace ease of integrated use — no wireless projection — printing problems, etc.

They had the decency to post a prominent link to your article as providing a completely counter-view… which shows confidence in presenting an argument, substantiating it, and ALSO providing easy access to dissenting presentation — yours.

Because now that I have seen your writing, I like it, and I like your mindset re how things play out in tech usability. I just disgaree with one major argument — and yes, we shall see. I would happy to place a substantial dollar bet with you on this, and put it into escrow. Are you on? We will both establish measurable criteria for what constiututes success or death of the android platform over X year arc of time.

(( It has no significant-sized apps due to memory allocation issues (AM apps can only be loaded into system RAM, and not into SD Cards, where most Android phones have most of their storage. ))

Part 1 is a leap; what does file size have to do with effectiveness of app? But part 2, yes, correct, at the moment. But at XDA-devs, they’ve already busted that down able to install apps on SD cards, so that argument goes out the window.

(( There’s just lots of serious limitations that nobody mentions because nobody wants to speak ill of the slow platform. ))

I don’t know. It’s fair to say apple was smarter with its choice of processors etc, but not accurate to say “slow” to the real competitors now: The snapdragon processor based devices, again in particular the HTC Desire, but Nexus One as well, and several others.

(( There are no big games, no games from big developers;))

True –AND ? This is your guaranteed make/break argument for the success or death of android platform? I’ve handled this argument. You;re wrong to frame its success based on apps.

(( Android apps are hobbyist fare; they’re what developers wanted to do, not what the market wants to buy. ))

** I’m sorry but that doesn’t fly. That requires at minimum a rundown of apps in the Android market to see if that holds up. For me, I love my phone for its speed, functionality, ease of use, extremely easy ability to customize easy access to information I care about. I have never been a games player ever, whether on my Macs for 25 years, or PCs. Don’t care about them. Not everyuone does. But even still, the apps I want and care about they have — and I will name them if you reply fully to this comment, and we will play this out, or you will demure and back off needing to “move on” to fresher content (which is standard behavior for tech writers when challenged)

(( iPhone haters talk about Fart Apps and how there’s so much hype behind Apple, but Android is pretty much nothing but Fart Apps and hype. ))

First off — what is this use of language as it applies to ME, and my arguments. I am not an iphone hater, never said a damn thing negative about it. So you’re not allowed to use that as a crutch when addressing my concerns. Yes, there exist iPhone haters. But maybe you;d be surprised to learn that there are smart, competent people who like the iphone, and also like android phones, and have reasons why they might even like android phones better — without resorting to also hating iphone. So knock that off.

(( It’s not some new market, it’s just the historical WiMo and LG crap phones buyers now shifted over to Android apps. ))

This is a very poor reach of a comment. But seriously i recognize you don’t have time to devote to simply my comment, and you’re dashing off at least some substantive replies… some of them, like this one, are just sloppy and lack any basis other than a shoot from hip.

The percentage rise in use of of android phones from increasing numbers worldwide suggests you are not being accurate. And yes, if pressed i will google and pull the surveys I have read from legitimate market research firms. But i don;t have it at tip of my fingers this second.

Just as one tiny argument — and I mean tiny — There is a market not served by iphone — and laugh if you will but it is born out in studies: women with fingernails. Doesn’t work for them, nor does any android capacitive screen, and that’s physics, nothing else. So let’s not be so ridiculous with such statements. Maybe Apple has a capacitive stylus (OH NO, the dreaded stylus! Doesn’t everyone know if its not finger, its failure!) — or better yet a capcitive finger tip that enables people with nails to use the phone. Tell me.

(( Android has been around just about as long as iPhone (came out a couple months after).))

Can you please cite that with links. It sounds preposterous. a RELEASED os on a phone? That was the G1 at T-Mobile USA. Go check that date and come back and give your mea-culpa. Now you;re getting shoddy when shooting from hip and off by several years.

(( So it’s had lots of time to catch up. But it hasn’t; it’s just eaten up the slightly more pitiful Palm OS and WiMo. ))

I’m sorry, that is just absurd. The differences between android 1.0 and 2.0 are enormous, and all with 1.5 years, not 3. THis need not be a pissing match, but you’re the one who opened this door. To remain credible, you need to back up what you’re saying here because now you’re disintegrating to all over the map without any whiff of evidence. I call you out. You’re not accurate, in fact you are actively misrepresenting the truth here.

(( What it will do remains to be seen, but I’ve lost any faith that Android will do anything but slobber through 2010 as an increasingly tragic figure. Of course, I can be wrong. We’ll see. – Dan ))

Yes, we will see. And now I am ready to bet you. Will you pony up? let;s say $2500 . You choose the escrow holder.

147 marsviolet { 04.08.10 at 10:36 pm }

Rufustfirefly doesn’t seem to realize that if Lincoln were alive today, he’d be a Democrat. Today’s Republicans bear little resemblance to that great man.

148 marsviolet { 04.08.10 at 10:44 pm }

Quicksite, you use more words than Android has apps. The Android is not only dead, it never lived.

149 quicksite { 04.08.10 at 11:04 pm }

(( Quicksite, you use more words than Android has apps. The Android is not only dead, it never lived. )) Spoken like a true idiot savant. At least I can discuss something with facts and accuracy and refrain from fanboyism. I have used Macs longer than you have, love all apple products, resisted windows for decades til i was forced to use it at a job and found “okay, it’s not so bad. I can accomplish what I need to do. I prefer the mac, but so be it. PCs are okay.” … And before there was an iphone, i wanted a touchscreen device and bought the T-Mobile MDA, a windows mobile phone… Im didn’t care. I am platform agnostic. I may be wordy, but I’m not some fool who ties his self-worth to a brand name. To me, i use what I like and what works, and yes, product design often wins out. In this case though, the premise of android being dead is a dead-giveaway that you don’t know the first thing about it. Nobody who does would be so ignorant “it never lived”. Wow. Engrave that on your tombstone. It’s so profound.

Meanwhile, anyone care to answer my questions on pure merits facts and actual user experience data?

150 Neil Anderson { 04.09.10 at 10:54 am }

Awesome article as usual. Definitely hit a nerve among many commenters.

151 Aframe { 04.09.10 at 10:54 am }

Quicksite asked:
“Meanwhile, anyone care to answer my questions on pure merits facts and actual user experience data?”

I think the answer is “probably not”. Why? Well “I may be wordy” provides a clue. Also, this is supposed to be a response to Dan’s article, but Dan has already lost interest, the discussion has degenerated into something about US politics and anyone interested in the future of technology is looking elsewhere.

May I suggest that you gather your own data and information about the Android platform and the details you refer to, find a way to express this and your conclusions concisely, and post them on an appropriate forum?

Here in Japan, the first Android phone on my network became available last week. I’m not going to give up my iPhone to try it, especially because the earlier Android phone I saw couldn’t handle the Japanese language properly.

152 quicksite { 04.09.10 at 2:50 pm }

No need to reply further. What I have concluded is that this is, in itself, a fanboy site, which is fine. I just didn’t know it til now. ANdroid not handling Japanese. What a clueless joke. I thought this was a legitimate community for fact based analysis. over and out.

153 ulicar { 04.09.10 at 5:29 pm }

As tweeted by Conan O’Brien: “Just got the new iPad. This amazing device has already revolutionized the way I use a calculator.”

hehehehehe. That is iPad the killer :) rotflmao :)

154 Aframe { 04.10.10 at 8:01 am }

Quicksite wrote:
“No need to reply further. What I have concluded is that this is….. a fanboy site ……. Android not handling Japanese. What a clueless joke. I thought this was a legitimate community for fact based analysis. over and out.”

This was not a joke at all. In case you haven’t noticed, most technology that is designed in the USA is built in China. I live in Japan, my clients are from the USA, Europe and elsewhere in Asia and our projects are all over the world.

If Quicksite lives in the USA, he may not understand foreign languages, but he may have purchased products from Walmart, such as Photoframes or DVD players, which are essentially stripped-down computers. Such devices are often based on Linux. They may be able to operate in English and Chinese, but not any other language. The makers have to produce a different version for Japan, which is a market almost as big as USA, and ignore Europe, which is an equally large market but has too many languages……

Having the capability to make many languages work universally is a key advantage of the Mac OS X that allows Apple to easily localise its products wherever there are customers. The fact that Linux and Android have more difficulties with Japanese language localisation has possibly lost Android phone makers at least a year of mobile phone sales in this potentially lucrative market, and continues to present difficulties to the success of Android outside the US.

155 curiositrey { 04.11.10 at 5:57 pm }

Had to make one more comment, because it seems like the handheld game discussion keeps growing…anyone who thinks the iPad won’t kill handheld games must not have kids, because if you watch kids pick up an iPad, they get the whole picture immediately – it is not a dumb DS replacement, they can watch a movie, paint a picture, record a song and play a game or two. Which handheld does that? And, duh, who would spend $500 to just play games anyway? Of course, adults who spend $150 on handheld games shouldn’t be included in the discussion anyway. They are probably the chosen market for $3 fart Apps though.

156 ysysarchitect { 04.11.10 at 9:36 pm }

Dan,

I absolutely love your blog!

I don’t think anything you said is too far fetched.

I’ve been thinking about what I would do if I could launch an iPad.

Imagine the strategy. Let’s launch the lowest the product will ever be in features, which are 1000x more than just an ereader, into the market that is already waiting for it, work out the bugs, and we have a hit, a nice slow roller into the market. But wait, there’s more. When the school season hits this fall, the blossoms of the harvest will bloom, and we can be predicting an uber nut will explode from the pressure of school people ready to get this thing. How would one roll out a device this solid? It has the door-to-door immersive connection people other than geeks really want. Who cares about a lot of the way it works, even at it’s worst it’s 1000x better than anything out there, and why not! I think there is a huge market for kiosk-computing, and apple is giving the rest of the market a teachable moment in how to market to humans.

Keep up the writing, I think you have one of the best blogs on the net.

157 Chipotle { 04.12.10 at 10:07 am }

@Aframe: While I returned very late to this message thread, re: “working the direction the iPad has pointed us to” — yes, absolutely. My complaints about Pages on the iPad in its current incarnation aren’t complaints about the potential of word processing on the iPad. They’re about the current version of Pages on it. :) I have a lot of thoughts about the future of the iPad, but I’m still thinking on how to organize them.

158 ysysarchitect { 04.12.10 at 10:20 am }

If Microsoft tanks I think Amazon could buy Microsoft and they could try Windows7 on Kindle. This way you could still get the pretty look of Windows7, only in black and white, and it’ll be more readable in strong sunlight at Starbucks. When the people sitting next to a Windows7 Kindle with their iPads the iPad user can help the Kindle user if there are any colors missing in what they’re reading.

159 huntm856 { 04.13.10 at 12:35 pm }

Wow. It’s always interesting to come here. You guys live in your own little alternate universe.

[Please share your normal version of the mainstream everyman with us so we can appreciate your average mediocrity. - Dan]

160 huntm856 { 04.13.10 at 1:23 pm }

@curiositrey

Re gaming on iPad: I’m not sure I agree with you. I have a 14-yo son who has a Touch, and he plays some of the simple games like TapTap on it but doesn’t seem that taken with it as a gaming device. Still spends much more time on the 360, Wii, and even the DS. His commitment to gaming on the Touch is pretty unintense, similar to his feeling about those stupid Flash game sites on his laptop. When he’s gaming on our other platforms it is evidently (from watching him) a more intense and immersive experience.

Just bought my wife an iPad 32 and she’s been pretty much hogging it in the first week, but it’ll be interesting to see if the larger screen makes it more compelling as a gaming device. As someone who does a little PC gaming myself (still occasionally open up Oblivion, what a great game!), I am not seeing anything for iPad/Touch that is grabbing me. But it’s early yet.

161 spark09223 { 04.13.10 at 8:11 pm }

Wow. Really? You guys are so ridiculous.

1. DVD/BR: The iPad will NOT kill DVD/BR market as long as it cannot efficiently deliver HD video (which it totally cannot.) When the HDTV has become so widespread, people will always want HD contents. There is no way iPad can provide this. Will it hurt the DVD/BR sales? Yes. But no way it will “kill” it.

[Well you just injected BluRay out of thin air, so don't act like I was making the argument about iTunes have BR-compeititive HD. Of course, BR is not a mainstream phenomenon, but a rather weak niche product that was far less successful than it was expected to be, so to say it needs killing is a bit much.]

2. Textbooks. NO FREAKING WAY. You clearly haven’t talked to students about this. No one can afford to buy the iPad or e-textbooks. When students can barely afford tuition, they are not going to go out and buy e-textbooks which are just as expensive as paper versions AND are not re-sellable. There are plenty of used textbooks which are less than half the price of a new one. Plus, you have to buy the $500 iPad. So, whether you like it or not, textbooks aren’t going anywhere.

[I believe they also said that about a lot of other things that quickly went extinct. Because everyone knows, prices never change in relation to market disruption.]

3. Office. I just laughed at this point. Really? Even Apple-loving techblogs say that word-processing on the iPad is just not productive. No matter how good Apple’s touchscreen is, the input method on the iPad is still far less efficient than keyboard + mouse (in terms of word processing). Just try typing a simple 500 word-long letter on that thing (yes, I have tried on my friend’s iPad because I was thinking of getting one). No way it will kill Office as we know it.

[iPad supports physical keyboards. And while iWork does need some refinement, it is already much more productive in many respects than mousing around. Microsoft's share of productivity apps in mobile devices is about to plummet, please check back with me in a year or two to acknowledge I was right or demand an apology .]

4. Paper. Again, I laugh. This is what people said when laptops started getting commonplace. There are so many cases where the law requires that a document be printed on a real paper, and it won’t change for a while. So, in most workplaces, the paper isn’t going anywhere.

[When people said they were coming for horses and buggies, I said nothing because I did not ride horses and buggies. When they came for gas lamps and candles, I said nothing because I did not use lamps and candles. Then they came for paper and I could say nothing because I hadn't learned to use iPad.]

5. Gaming. Yes, the iPhone OS has potential to be a great gaming platform. But the iPhone/iPod Touch will carry most of the weight as a gaming device. Just think of the size of the iPad. It’d be incredibly awkward to hold that thing to play a game. There’s a reason why all the portable gaming devices were small (Gameboy, Gameboy Advance, DS, DSL, PSP…). Because that makes sense for a portable device. Yes, there could be games that makes use of the large(r) screen real estate. But then, the input methods limit its potential. It’s too big to hold up for games, but then the only other option is to put it flat down on a surface. Not so appealing for games.

[The reason Gameboys and PSPs are small is because the screen is a major part of the component expense, and nobody can expect users to pay $500 or more just for a games machine. But when you have a multipurpose device with other attractions, and it also plays games, you now have a way to sell it as a games machine and actually expect people to buy it.

Consider the PC; you can't market a console competitive with a $4000 gamer PC, but that doesn't mean that high end PCs are too big and fancy to play games.

Recall that the iPhone and iPod touch (which irate readers were insisting just a few years ago would never be games machines) were $4-500 and up not too long ago, and yet they have become popular for playing games as you acknowledge, despite the fact that the DS and PSP are much cheaper. Anticipate that things will change more than you can imagine and a whole new world of potential will open up for you - Dan]

162 huntm856 { 04.14.10 at 6:03 pm }

@Dan re: [Please share your normal version of the mainstream everyman with us so we can appreciate your average mediocrity. - Dan]

Haha, you are so so witty.

But seriously, your ad hominem reply quite elegantly illustrates my point.

Applephiles commonly express exactly the superciliousness about their products of choice and, indeed, the superiority of their aesthetics in comparison to those of the hoi polloi as you expressed in just a few words. I get it, we are all cretins who simply don’t have the intellectual and aesthetic wherewithal to grasp the marvelousness of your unicorn-horn-powder- and fairy-dust-sprinkled magical products. Like prophets in the wilderness, only with a greater admixture of disdain than compassion, you seek to guide us, to lead us. But one day, through efforts of stalwarts such as yourself, we will all see the light.

As I said, you guys live in your own little alternate universe.

163 huntm856 { 04.14.10 at 6:05 pm }

Oops, accidentally inserted a space in one of my formatting tags. I guess Steve decided we don’t need an edit button here.

164 huntm856 { 04.14.10 at 6:06 pm }

Maybe he’ll change his mind and introduce one as a wonderful new feature in a couple of years.

165 gctwnl { 04.15.10 at 3:05 am }

Related: Seeking Alpha about why Apple is great. Nice summary. Dan wil agree, I guess.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/198613-the-power-of-apple?source=yahoo

166 Miltä maailma näyttää iPadin saavuttua | Takapiha { 04.16.10 at 10:58 am }

[...] Kovan kohun ja ennakkomarkkinoinnin jälkeen Applen iPad on viimeinkin tullut kuluttajien saataville, tosin vasta Yhdysvalloissa. Yksi ennakkoon eniten huomiota saanut laitteen sovellus on sähkökirjojen lukemiseen, hallintaan ja ostamiseen tarkoitettu iBooks, joten laitetta ja sen ympärille rakennettuja palveluita on syytä “mittailla” kirjabisneksenkin näkökulmasta. Tokihan laitteesta on paljon muuhunkin. [...]

167 cc_ { 04.16.10 at 1:27 pm }

I registered just to chime in here…
First – you’re a pretty damn good writer, Dan. I like your style a lot.
Second – if this article is to be taken at face value, then it’s clear that you’re more than just a little bit deluded.
You’ve got some really good points in there – but they’re kind of lost amongst this other pile of illogical leaps.
Someday… maybe… a fully-realized iPad could be the mighty destroyer of things obsolete that you describe here… but for the moment… it’s a swing and a miss.
Still like your writing though… but maybe don’t be such a douche to those who disagree with you? Or do… whatever. Keep up the good work.

[I don't write to an audience of idiots. People who read my stuff are for the most part pretty smart. So when I exaggerate or joke, they usually get it. When in doubt that I'm being a little sarcastic or using hyperbole to make a point, error on the side of your intellect, not on the side of heart attack-serious emotionalism. And when you think I'm being a douche, again, think of the intended audience and consider that maybe that's what I should be doing. - Dan]

168 nelsonart { 04.26.10 at 1:51 am }

Great stuff. I agree with all the kills. I think Office is going to be killed by its own mediocrity and new ‘in-the-cloud’ apps and even a touch of Apple’s iWork goodies. But I appreciated the nice leap. I truly do not understand why people are clinging to DVD and defending it so staunchly. I was amused to see you later refer to them as plastic circles. That’s all they are. What’s the point of carrying around plastic circles!

Since you interjected politics into the comments sections, I’d like to just say that I have zero confidence that Obama’s massive tax hikes are going to rejuvenate this economy. From our perspective of seeing the financial lives of several hundred clients, it’s going to be a painful realization that we cannot tax ourselves to prosperity.

Obama’s a nice guy, but swinging daggers at people pulling the wagon while more are piling in is not going to end well.

Your ability to write such insightful articles on technology does not square with your worldview in other areas. It just stumps me to no end.

There will be no changing of minds, so I’ll leave it at that. I did want a response on one thing that you might have left out in your well-rounded graveyard: Apple’s own MacbookPros.

I ordered 4 iPads w/ 3G. Great news for Apple. I can’t believe I spent that much money on a product I haven’t seen or touched. But what interests me is what was replaced in that order. My parents were going to get an MBPro. So was a client of mine. My parents are sticking with the iMac in the kitchen and iPad for everything else. My client went with an iMac/iPad combo, forgoing a MBPro. And I bought myself and my son an iPad and at this point, will wait and see if it has the goods to replace my desire for a MBPro.

So that’s a few iPad sales and iMac sales and a few lost MBPro sales. I’ve seen a few other discussion boards parrot this same story. I wonder how many laptops will be sacrificed for this shiny new toy.

That’s not to say I think Apple will suffer. After all, the iPad can and will be updated far more aggressively. As soon as they add a camera, my old one is going on Craigslist.

I’m sure MBPro sales will be strong, but not as strong as without the iPad carving into them.

One more thing, I have 2 boys. They are playing the DS less and less and the iPod touches more and more. They are 8 and 10. Nintendo has a huge thing with the Mario and Pokemon franchises. But even they are no match to thousands of new, free or very inexpensive games.

169 djncjd { 05.04.10 at 6:56 am }

Seriously, who’s a “Windows Enthusiast”? I’ve never seen one. Just because Apple users make a religion out of their brand loyalty, it doesn’t mean anyone else does.

In any case, I’ve been hearing that Apple is on the verge of killing everyone else for the last 30 years, but not only has it never happened, it took hated Microsoft’s influx of capital to save it from extinction.

[Judging from your ridiculous comment, your MSN email address, and your absurdly revisionist understanding of history, I'd suggest you look in a mirror to discover the Windows Enthusiast nearest you. - Dan]

170 kdaeseok { 05.26.10 at 9:42 am }

iPad to replace DS?
No.
Pokemon.

171 brew57 { 08.15.10 at 10:34 pm }

That point on the death of Android doesn’t seem to be playing out in retrospect?

172 TimatIMM { 02.13.11 at 10:03 am }

Generally good article, but I find your remarks about segregation offensive. I grew up in Gary, Indiana at a time when the demographic makeup of the city was changing, and I can assure you that segregation is anything but “dead.” There may be a measure of integration in San Francisco, but I would argue that SF is an exception rather than the rule. The tendency to segregate is a part of human nature, and that’s one thing you can’t outlaw.

173 brew57 { 02.13.11 at 11:39 am }

>>I find your remarks about segregation offensive.

I find that you have to read Dilger’s articles while holding your nose. I still read him, because he does have interesting things to say on the tech/apple stuff, but each time he strays into politics or non-tech issues, I find him generally out-of-his-league and, worse, offensive.

[I would certainly hope that enemies of Civil Rights and supporters of segregation would find me "offensive" for laying out how ridiculous their heros are, just as I wouldn't want to find a bunch of Nazis, KKK, or militant religious fundamentalists (muslim or christian) nodding in agreement to anything I write.

What a pathetic stance to take. I pity your children. - Dan ]

174 gctwnl { 11.17.13 at 2:44 am }

Reading this 3.5 years later, I think it is a nice example of both hits and things that took off in another direction:

- DVDs? Yes dying and iPad is part of that, but all of that.
- eReaders? Seem to have a niche of their own
- Stacks of papers in office meetings. Though some people are doing it all with an iPad, paper dies slowly.
- Same for textbooks. Death is not imminent but a slow process.
- Netbooks: Yes, iPad had a lot to do with their death.
- PSP/DS: another yes. iPod/iPad/iPhone killed them off
- Brochures: again slowly. Paper is still used much
- Single purpose industrial gadgets: Yes. This was never much.
- Other tablet-y stuff: With the exception of Android and the birth of a whole range of cheap (sometimes literally) toys based on Android (toy tablets of $50).
- The credibility of haters: No. They (and shills) are still believed far and wide. The success of iPad (and iPhone and iPod) have been painted as accidental upswings in a doomed Apple. See the current meme: Apple cannot invent anymore.
- Flash, Silverlight and JavaFX. Yes. Are dying by Javascript/HTML5/SVG, the standards Apple adopted. They died not so much because of iPad (or iPhone), but because they were incompatible with the mobile ecosystem mainly because of power consumption and security. But as iOS largely made up the mobile smart ecosystem, iPad killed them off.
- No. Office is still strong and embedded in enterprises. But it also turns out tablets are less used for heavy-lifting ‘Officy’-work. Unclear what will happen here. This is a bot like the car/truck example by Jobs: people use cars as ‘stuff-carriers’ but cars are not heavy lifters.
- Set top boxes, Tivo, WMC: Yes, dying but partly unclear and mobile is not the only force here. Recording at home gets replaced with streaming from a service a la Netflix, iTunes, but the TV (even with smart TVs and AppleTV) are still largely out of the fold.
- Idle moments: Yes
- ChromeOS: Maybe. Google is not very clear on Android/Chrome and Android is a success in keeping large section of the mobile market open for Google’s services (without depending on Apple) but not a success in terms of making money itself. Chrome was not killed by iPad, but it definitely hardly got off the ground in the first place.
- Android: No. The number of Android devices has grown extremely. They still have little impact in the top segment (most Android devices are limited) where Apple reigns.
- Windows Phone 7: It does not look good, but they are still not completely down and out.
- In-flight entertainment systems: Here and there, but this will take a long time. Maybe the US goes faster.
- Google’s add monopoly. Still very much alive, thanks to Android. Only pretty much dead inside the iOS ecosystem.

All in all: where most predictions are generally 100% wrong, your list looks a lot better.

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