Comments on: Apple’s iPhone 3GS blunts Palm Pre impact, challenges BlackBerry

By: The Mad Hatter

The Mad Hatter — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:38:19 +0000

Newest IPhone killer debuts, journalist calls it sexy, I wonder if he knows what sex is. I mean, this looks so boring.

By: The Mad Hatter

The Mad Hatter — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 00:58:53 +0000

WTF? It’s $89.00 Canadian at the Rogers store. Of course their monthly charges tell you why they fly the Jolly Roger above their headquarters.

By: ChuckO

ChuckO — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 14:53:07 +0000

Based on the various posts here it sounds like the iPhone is going to need to be cheaper. It sounds like $100 with a contract in the next year or two probably makes sense. Maybe that wouldn’t be true if Apple started really pulling away on the hardware side.

It would be interesting to know how many people are out there on second hand iPhone’s. That’s like a freebie for AT&T.

By: dpaus

dpaus — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 12:17:41 +0000

I think you’re overlooking a couple of important points: Palm’s market share was dropping at 1 – 1.5% per quarter since Q3 ‘08, when all they had was WinMo devices and badly outdated Palm OS devices. By June ‘09, they had dropped to 7%. Then they launched the Pre, and dropped their older devices (except those already in inventory at carriers, which are not reflected in these numbers). So that 7% number reflects sales of the Palm Pre, a brand-new device with a brand-new OS and very few apps. Now compare that to Jul ‘07 when the original iPhone came out – a brand-new device with (effectively, at least for the mobile market) a brand-new OS, and very few apps. Apple was able to capture only 4% of that market, which is very good for a brand-new device on a single carrier, but still almost 1/2 of Palm’s 7% success with the Pre (also on a single carrier, and a much smaller one at that). Furthermore, Apple only gained 1 – 1.5% share per quarter for the next 5 quarters, as the apps built up. Palm’s app catalog is building quickly, and Palm only needs to grow at 1 – 1.5% per quarter to exceed Apple’s success. With the low-end Pixie due out any day, and the Pre and Pixie coming to Verizon in Jan and possibly AT&T in Mar, and two more devices coming out in Q1, I’d say the likelyhood of Palm’s meeting that are very good. I wouldn’t count them out just yet.

And, ChuckO: “no excitement”?? The Pre was named Best Product at the electronics show, was a “Top 10″ in the Popular Mechanics user-vote poll of top products of 2009, and was ranked 14th in PCWorld’s Top 100 products of 2009 (the iPhone 3GS came in at 27) Palm’s been doing a very good job of placing the Pre in episodes of prime-time shows, too CSI: New York and CSI: Miami, Heroes, Flaskforward, Lie To Me, The Colbert Report, Numb3rs, etc)

I’m also wondering about the “customer satisfaction” numbers quoted without a source. CFI Group did a survery recently, and while the iPhone was a solid 83%, the Pre has a close second at 77%, and that survey was done in July, while the Pre was still experiencing teething problems that have since been ironed out.

Palm’s got a long, difficult road ahead of them, but it’s way too soon to write them off.

(full diclaimer: no I don’t own either a Pre or Palm shares, but I’m in the market for a new smartphone, and it’s down to the 3GS or the Pre)

By: Berend Schotanus

Berend Schotanus — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 08:46:22 +0000

Android FTW

By: The Mad Hatter

The Mad Hatter — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 01:00:55 +0000

I think Palm will end up doing well. I’ve used a Pre, and it’s really pretty good. It blows away the Wimo phones, in fact the only phone that is better is the IPhone. And it shows that Palm is capable of learning from their mistakes, unlike the rest of the Smartphone manufacturers.

Now will the baby Pre work? If it does, it’s going to take the low end of the market, where Apple doesn’t play.

By: roz

roz — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 23:34:11 +0000

@luisd
Considering that Palm launched the Pre it seems like title is accurate. Also consider that BB is nearly free to consumers at this point. Verizon will give you **two** Storms for $50. That is a crazy deal considering that there is not much to that cost of good that is different from the iPhone. The fact that anyone wants to pay money for the iPhone with that sort of deal on the table is amazing and quite a testimony to the unique value people associate with the device.

By: cy_starkman

cy_starkman — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 23:33:42 +0000

Let’s not get to harsh on Palm, Ol’ Apple once had and in some areas still has such a meagre percentage and lack of market growth.

I still wish Palm luck, or maybe simply a management that isn’t running a business as a personal vendetta against their old boss.

By: luisd

luisd — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 22:02:48 +0000

Hi Dan,

The graph at the top does not support the title of the article though. A quick glance shows that the gain in Apple share has been at the expense of Palm. RIM has pretty much continued undisturbed. The apparent slow decline of RIM may just be normal fluctuations as it oscillates around 40%.

What is interesting in the graph is that in the last period Jun-Sep 09, RIM stayed stable at 40%, and so did Palm at 7%. Apple though went up 5%. These are new costumers that had not have a smartphone before.

What I read from the graph is that Apple is attracting new costumers, RIM is keeping its volume (but slowly loosing share as the number of smart phones increases) and well, Palm is dead.

By: ChuckO

ChuckO — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 21:53:14 +0000

Palm just seems dead. There seems to be no excitement out there for them. I suspect the most frequent reference to them that you’ll see going forward is how bad they’re doing and as a cautionary tale.