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Gartner declares Android a second place winner in 2012. Why?

Daniel Eran Dilger

Looking into its crystal ball, Gartner Group has predicted that Google’s Android will become the second largest smartphone platform by 2012. Problem is, nobody’s talking about how terrible Gartner is at predicting things, or that Gartner’s “research” has historically been paid for by special interests. So why the headlines?

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Sure, Gartner has come out recently and predicted a short life span for the remains of Windows Mobile, or as Microsoft likes to call it these days, “Windows Phone,” as if Windows still has some cachet in the wake of Windows Vista. (Recall that this is the same vendor that intentionally avoided any association of its tired Windows brand with Xbox or Zune.) The fact that Android, not WiMo, is being chatted up by Gartner is almost newsworthy.

But calling Windows Mobile a dud at this point isn’t very bold, even for Gartner, a group that has dutifully suckled the teat of Bill Gates throughout a series of sour spells. Microsoft’s shill budget for Windows Mobile is probably as sad as the beleaguered mobile platform’s web browser. That would certainly explain why a Gartner analyst wrote a month ago that he was “concerned about its future and I worry that WM7 [in 2010] could even be the last throw of the dice [for Microsoft].”

Why would Gartner be “concerned” about a mobile platform? Because Microsoft pays Gartner to be concerned, and when the last of the coins fall out of the WiMo wallet, Gartner analysts have to be concerned about who will be paying for their shill skills going forward. Certainly neither Apple nor the FOSS community is going to be stepping up to the plate.

In contrast with Gartner’s dim view of Windows Mobile, iSuppli (another notorious font of news that always just happens to be unflattering to Apple) has decided that Windows Mobile will rise like a phoenix to become a 67.9 million unit per year business by 2013, putting it in second place instead. How this could possibly happen was attributed to the idea that “Windows Mobile holds some major cards that will allow it to remain a competitive player in the market,” despite having been abandoned by Palm and Motorola and sidelined by nearly all of its other licensees. And the fact that WiMo has never really been a “competitive player in the market.” Apparently LG’s boring stable of phones is key to propelling Microsoft back into relevance in the minds of iSuppli’s analysts.

The Spectacular Failure of WinCE and Windows Mobile

A time to shill

Gartner doesn’t say such ridiculous things unless it is fully compensated to do so. Back in 1998 when Windows NT 5 was slipping behind (before it would optimistically be renamed “Windows 2000”), Gartner was assigned the task of championing the adoption of Windows 98 by corporations. What troopers these complicit paid-to-say suits were. If you weren’t paying attention back then, suffice it to say that Windows 98 was such a dog that it would have been remembered as the worst version of Windows of all time had it not have been succeeded by the even worse 98-SE and then Windows Me.

In one of Microsoft’s antitrust suits, Gartner’s core competency as a shill group was detailed when confidential internal memos surfaced showing that Microsoft had paid hundreds of thousands of dollars in an effort that “successfully lobbied and changed the Gartner Group TCO [Total Cost of Ownership] model to show Windows as providing the lowest overall TCO [in comparison to NCs].”

At the time, Microsoft was desperately afraid of the NC, the new “Network Computers” being pushed by IBM and Sun that it feared would replace Windows PCs with basic terminals that actually did the same thing as a Windows PC without requiring a license from Microsoft. Even worse, NCs threatened Microsoft’s strategy to migrate its existing DOS-based PC monopoly to Windows NT. Microsoft paid mightily to fund the demise of the cost effective NC.

“We will spend a considerable amount of our time focused on educating the press about the pitfalls of the NC in order to generate ‘the NC is Dead’ press articles,” wrote Microsoft’s Keith White of the Windows marketing team. “We will be delivering monthly Windows TCO wins to the press, as well as NC trial/rejecter case studies.”

And of course, ever since then Microsoft has been working with Gartner and similar groups to buy airtime. “Analysts sell out – that’s their business model,” explains one of Microsoft’s manuals on evangelism. “But they are very concerned that they never look like they are selling out, so that makes them very prickly to work with.”

Does that mean Gartner is now backing Android just to give itself an appearance of objectivity?

Why is being second place news?

Oddly, Gartner’s press release didn’t trumpet Symbian as retaining its leading position in smartphones; the headlines were all about Android being in second place. Why? Well there’s no chance Windows Mobile is going to be in second place in another three years, and Apple doesn’t pay Gartner to generate billowing smokescreens. If WiMo does indeed die next year, that means Gartner’s shills will need new sellout partners. Android is the most likely to support Gartner, not because Google is known to shill, but because the platform represents hardware makers that might be.

In contrast, RIM and Apple largely live or die on the merits of their products, not on the spin that chattering analysts can give their products. Tomorrow’s Android makers are today’s Windows Mobile makers, and Gartner is just doing the best it can to keep Windows Mobile alive in principle, even as the life is draining out of its frail earthly corpse.

Back in 2005, Gartner predicted something completely different. “Gartner Group’s leading analysts, Nick Jones and John Girard, are predicting big trouble for Symbian when Microsoft finally releases its Magneto release of Windows for Smartphones some time in Q3-Q4 2005.” In other words, Microsoft was going to take over in smartphones as soon as it could manage to ship Windows Mobile 5.

Was it because WiMo 5 was offering some great new level of sophistication? “[WiMo 5] Magneto,” Gartner’s shills said, “will effectively fix the bugs and fill the holes in the current version of Windows for Smartphones [oh my sides hurt, tehee]. That will mean the difference between the two offerings [WiMo and Symbian] will be largely down to marketing – an area where the Beast of Redmond is acknowledged to enjoy a lead.” So Microsoft was going to out-market Symbian with its superior vaporware.

Picking winners

Today, Gartner can’t make such ridiculous claims, even if there is another vaporware WiMo version around the corner. Microsoft’s market share has shriveled up as smartphone sales in general have grown dramatically. The company has demonstrated it has no capacity to deliver anything of value even after having two years to copy the iPhone. With no shill funding likely to pour in from Symbian, Gartner has to pick a number two, and you knew it wouldn’t be Apple.

Even so, Gartner is predicting that Apple will be selling 71.6 million iPhones per year in 2012. That’s huge, more than even iSuppi fantasizes WiMo will sell the year after that. So far, Apple has “only” sold 30 million iPhones since it went on sale more than two years ago. How do you beat that kind of performance? Easy, you just pull a bigger number out of a hat. Gartner doesn’t figure in sales of the iPod touch, which is currently selling two units for every three iPhones, as that would distract from the message at hand: that the iPhone won’t be number two. Instead, Gartner says all Android makers will reach combined annual sales of “about” 76 million.

Whew! Without that extra five thrown in there, Gartner would have had to report that Apple was fated to be, not just the single largest vendor outside of Symbian, but also the second largest platform. What kind of self-serving headline would that be for a group committed to badmouthing Apple as a company that fails to play the vaporware/analyst game?

Any why wasn’t anyone at all critical of Gartner’s “research,” given that it basically says iPhone and Android will be tied at 70-some million, and that BlackBerry, WiMo and Palm WebOS will all be tied within a hair of 12 million? Does this not smack of extreme silliness? I mean really, the Palm Pre’s WebOS is going to match RIM’s sales within a couple years? How and why? Nobody cares about the Palm Pre now that it has clearly failed to kill the iPhone as predicted. It will take its place next to the 2007 LG Prada and OpenMoko and the 2008 BlackBerry Storm in the “iPhone killers hall of shame.” Gartner’s numbers are as contrived as the plot of a Christmas-themed children’s movie.

Google’s Android Platform Faces Five Tough Obstacles

Outlook not so good

Perhaps Gartner should stick to near term predictions, given that the analyst involved in this doodling, Ken Dulaney, isn’t exactly clairvoyant. Just weeks before Apple announced its broad initiative to target iPhone 2.0 at enterprise users, Dulaney wrote, “We’re telling IT executives to not support [the iPhone] because Apple has no intentions of supporting [iPhone use in] the enterprise.” He was forced to scramble a retraction calling Apple’s software update “a technological advance rarely seen in the industry.”

Of course, Dulaney was speaking of advances relative to those delivered by Microsoft, the company that spent ten years cloning the Mac, a decade trying to get NT to the point where it could be sold to consumers, and which has spent nearly as long releasing Windows 7 (if you count Vista as a big public beta, which it makes sense to do). So yes, from that perspective, an annual software update is mind-blowing stuff.

Had Gartner not served as Microsoft’s mouthpiece in badmouthing OS/2, NCs, Macs, and everything open source-related (or just not Microsoft-related) to enterprise users all these years, perhaps the company’s analysts wouldn’t be blown away by “technological advances” that happen every year. Of course, had it not done all that damage, the company wouldn’t have ever got all those millions of shill dollars for keeping Microsoft’s terrible products in the headlines.

36 comments

1 pedrocandrade { 10.08.09 at 9:39 am }

Great article, Daniel! Always teaching me something new, with a thoughtful history lesson. Thanks!

This is surely going to be a fun race to watch. One thing I’ve been wondering is for how long Apple will try to conserve its margins, instead of going for more volume. Although it’s still ahead with the iPhone, competitors are closing in with “me too” and perhaps “good enough” alternatives that can fool a good portion of the masses. Not to mention the engadget crowd who can fall for a clunky expensive phone with “circle your finger for zoom” interface (N900).

Apple is charging the highest margins in the mobile business, and is still able to get amazing interest for the iPhone. The high price probably served as a signaling and anchoring tool for its main customers (operators, the subsidizers). It also gave it time to organize distribution logistics around the world. Lowering prices before would only lead to losses – because the potential clients weren’t yet able to reach the product. But now things are different, as distribution is in place in more than 80 countries. Apple might be able to benefit significantly from the elasticity of consumers to the iPhone (full) price.

In some countries, where subsidies are in place, people might be fooled by the $99-$199, coupled with an expensive plan to actually pay for the phone. But in other places, where people must shell out the full price at once, the iPhone is a real luxury. Even in subsidized countries, as smartphone prices consolidate around specific price points ($49, $99, $149, $199, etc) mobile subscription prices could garner more consumer attention as a decision making aspect. To decrease subscription prices, Apple will need to accept lower prices, because the operators are not making all that much money from the subsidy strategy…

Anyway, lowering prices would depend on Apple’s view on the trade-off between volume vs. margins. It seems to me a big piece of the puzzle in understanding how mainstream the iPhone will get.

2 Ian { 10.08.09 at 9:55 am }

Thanks for the insightful article. I’ve always been deeply suspicious of Gartner “research” but was not aware of the shilling going on. Thank you for enlightening me.

3 Blad_Rnr { 10.08.09 at 10:15 am }

Great article, as usual, but uncharacteristically bad punctuation and spelling. Needs editing.

4 snookie { 10.08.09 at 10:48 am }

Gartner is a joke. In my 20+ years in IT I have seen them be more wrong than right and to have no basis for their “predictions”. I’ve also talked to Gartner analysts and came away clueless as to why they have anything to do with technology at all. It used to be that big corporations payed big bucks or Gartner services but I don’t see that anymore so they must be in high shill gear now to make up for lost revenue. iSuppli? What a joke they are.

5 Thomas_xp { 10.08.09 at 11:10 am }

I would love to see Apple actually paying him to write a nice article and then to see Apple publicly discrediting him for beeing a blogger-whore.

6 ChuckO { 10.08.09 at 12:23 pm }

It concerns me how much these predictions motivate the Apple community. As a Red Sox fan I can understand it’s tough to believe when things are going well but you really need to be less insecure. I can believe Android phones will “beat” iPhone if the only measure is units sold but I think for that to happen they will have to be a lot cheaper than iPhones and the iPhone will always be the premium offering that will appeal to Apple’s new and old fan’s. Look at stock price based on that who’s “winning” Microsoft or Apple. If what Microsoft is doing is winning than I’d rather be that loser Apple any day. But I also think there are more interesting things Dan could be writing about. I want to hear his thoughts on the tablet’s and why if I have a macbook and an iPod Touch or iPhone I need a tablet or why I want a tablet instead of a Macbook. In terms of multi-media I don’t get how you listen to them outside of earbuds and that seems like a real problem to me.

7 HCE { 10.08.09 at 12:23 pm }

Nice article but you seem to have gotten one rather key figure wrong.

Gartner is predicting that RIM/Blackberry is going to have around 12 percent of the market (approximately the same as Windows Mobile) – not 12 million as you said in your article. Actually they predict a marginally higher share for Windows Mobile (12.8 vs 12.5) – which means that both will be around a percent or so behind Apple/Android.

None of this makes any sense. A few things that I got from the report

1. Nokia’s share is going to go down from around 50 percent to around 40 percent. Very safe prediction here – even if Nokia executes flawlessly from here on out, there’s no way they can keep a 50 percent share given the kind of competition they are facing.

2. Android at around 14 percent (as opposed to 3 percent or so today). Well, I think it is fairly safe to predict that Android’s share will rise – though saying it will rise by 400 percent is something of a stretch.

3. Apple’s share is going to be around 13 percent. That’s what Apple’s share is today. So the analyst is essentially saying that Apple’s market share is going to stay flat. Not likely IMHO. It seems fairly safe to say that they are not going to have the kind of explosive growth in market share that they did over the past couple of years but to say that they won’t grow at all is ridiculous.

4. Windows is going to be at a little over 12 percent. They are at 9 percent today – and falling. I wonder what this prediction is based on? Of all the major mobile platforms, they are the only one with negative sales growth. All the others grew their sales (even if they lost market share). So how does Gartner think they are going to reverse this trend? WinMo 6.5 has been panned as a barely improved version of 6.1 and is hardly likely to stop this slide. Their only chance is WinMo 7 – which is still a year out and by that time, their share might be down even further to 7 or 8 percent. So Gartner thinks that WinMo 7 will cause Microsoft’s market share to grow by 70-80 percent in less than two years! Wow, “ridiculous” would be an understatement!

5. Blackberry is going to be at around 12 as well. Right now, they are at around twice that. Gartner thinks that their market share will drop in half! With all their problems, they are still growing sales and they have quite a strong hold on the corporate market. With the growing consumer smartphone market, their overall share could drop but saying it will drop in half is a bit too much of a stretch.

6. The other predictions seem safe enough. I don’t see Palm doing anything significant unless they get acquired by a major player and I don’t see any other mobile platform breaking in. One possible exception is Maemo – which is Nokia’s Linux-based platform which could, in the long run, replace Symbian. However, given that the platform is in flux and a finalized API/SDK is not going to be ready until late 2010, I don’t think it is reasonable to expect more than a couple of points of share for them.

All in all, Gartner’s “analysis” sounds more like an exercise in wishful thinking. I wish I got paid to come up with fantasies like that! :-)

– HCE

8 ChuckO { 10.08.09 at 12:36 pm }

That would make for an interesting article: what changes is RIM making to fight the iPhone. I remember Daniel writing about how Blackberry’s OS is just a souped up beeper OS. That sounds like a scary place to be starting from if you have to defend against the iPhone. How about an article on that.

9 ChuckO { 10.08.09 at 1:03 pm }

..and let’s face it what with it and hip young person wouldn’t be excited to pull a DELL phone out of their pocket. It doesn’t get much sexier than that. Android wins!

10 The Mad Hatter { 10.08.09 at 1:11 pm }

Oh. Ouch. That hurts. I was laughing so hard I nearly fell off my chair.

Good one Daniel.

Yep, WiMo is going to take over the universe.

11 gus2000 { 10.08.09 at 1:21 pm }

Well, at least the bloggers won’t be able to openly shill anymore:

FTC Sets Blogging Disclosure Guidelines

So Daniel, does this mean you’ll need to finally disclose all those Swiss-bank transfers from Steve Jobs? :P

12 ChuckO { 10.08.09 at 1:43 pm }

I don’t get the pricing on the Palm Pre or the Android phones. They don’t have iTunes or the apps or the ease of synching contacts to your Mac or Outlook and they’re priced right there with the iPhone and not even the old $99 iPhone. That’s crazy. $99 right off the bat is the top price in order to move those things.

13 danieleran { 10.08.09 at 4:54 pm }

@gus2000 – If Mr Jobs ever wanted to send me some extra money, I’d be happy to disclose it.

14 nancy.erskine@gartner.com { 10.08.09 at 5:24 pm }

Daniel, I just posted an entry on my blog that addresses one of the central themes in your recent blog post — the claim that Gartner research is influenced by vendor-client status: http://tinyurl.com/yhh2u2b
Nancy Erskine
Ombudsman, Gartner, Inc.

15 bregalad { 10.08.09 at 7:54 pm }

The iPhone may never be #1, #2 or even #3 based on units sold, but Apple isn’t focused on market share in the phone market any more than they are in the personal computer market.

As someone who has worked in the software development industry for the last decade I’d say Win 98SE was marginally better than 98 while Me was the absolute low point. If the Dev/QA/TechSupport people had prevailed at my old company we’d have NEVER supported Me. I think we held out for close to 8 months before the sales department’s endless bleating that they couldn’t do their job if our product wasn’t going to be supported on new PCs prevailed.

16 Redfish { 10.08.09 at 9:48 pm }

Daniel, you lose your credibility from the get-go by referring to Gartner as “Gartner Group” (they dropped “Group” from their name way back in 2001). If you can’t get the most basic of facts straight then one has to wonder about the rest of your article.

[Before you assail my "credibility" in referring to Gartner by the same name everyone else commonly does, perhaps you should take your outrage to Google. This is not a material fact that has any impact on the story, and your insistence that it is and does is simply ridiculous.

- Dan]

I see that someone from Gartner has already responded but I was just going to say that it took less than a minute for me to go to gartner.com, click on Research, then read about Gartner research methodology and about the opportunity to contact the ombudsman office at Gartner if you have any issues with their research. BTW, I have no vested interest in Gartner but do have a strong interest in basic fairness and civility regardless of the subject.

[Well thank god that shill groups can certify their own credibility. Without that, I guess we'd have to just trust them. ]

I guess that’s what bothers me about many, if not most, of your articles, i.e., your lack of fairness and civility. You seem too quick to viciously attack someone without, apparently, even attempting to contact them to get their side of the story. And that’s too bad because I often agree with the basic premises of your articles.

[Sometimes there aren't two sides to a story. Sometimes there's just the story, and then some bullshit rolled up to make it look like there was no story. As in this case.

If you can't comprehend any connection between facts that Microsoft itself pays through the nose to guarantee favorable coverage (supported by court evidence), confidentially claims to have "lobbied" for such favorable coverage, and that it then tells its "evangelists" that shill groups like Gartner are difficult to work with because they want to maintain an illusion of objectivity and fairness while collecting shill money as their core business plan, then it doesn't speak well of your ability to sort out obvious things. - Dan ]

17 The Mad Hatter { 10.08.09 at 10:34 pm }

danieleran { 10.08.09 at 4:54 pm }

@gus2000 – If Mr Jobs ever wanted to send me some extra money, I’d be happy to disclose it.

Damn. That means that I have to disclose all how much more effective I’ve been since I switched to OSX and Linux. Apple, and the Free Software community didn’t give me money, they gave me productivity, and based on what I understand of the rule I have to declare it. Oh, and all those free Linux downloads, I have to declare them. Imagine getting a professional quality operating system for free – no one would believe it!

18 Alan { 10.09.09 at 12:41 am }

With the word “Android” in the title, I thought that there would be some logical arguments as to why this prediction was incorrect. Most of the article instead seems to not address Android at all and instead focuses on bashing WinMo and to a lesser degree Blackberry and Palm.

I would argue that it is very reasonable to assume that Android is a rising star. Unlike the iPhone, there will be numerous models by many manufacturers which will accommodate far more varied tastes. Some touchscreen only, some with keyboards. Not to mention the possibility of numerous carriers instead of only one like AT&T.

Although T-Mo was first in the U.S. to introduce Android phones, Sprint is also releasing the new HTC Hero and the Samsung Moment. The moment has a much faster CPU than the iPhone as well as a better camera and a capacitive AMOLED touchscreen display. It is a pretty impressive phone. I find it very reasonable and even probable that Android will overtake Apple and the iPhone in a few years. Even AT&T will soon introduce android phones. The only way that Apple could compete is to differentiate their lineup with a physical keyboard iPhone for example (very unlikely) or introduce a CDMA version in the U.S. (unlikely in the short term) which still has far more users than GSM at least in the U.S. Even when LTE is introduced a Verizon branded iPhone would still need to include a CDMA chipset for voice calls. I do not see how selling only one model (hard drive size aside) on only one carrier can continue to sustain the growth levels. Apple will be forced to open up to other carriers and perhaps vary their models to maintain their momentum. Otherwise it will be like a repeat of the Mac vs PC in the 80′s when Mac created the market then quickly became a niche player all over again.

http://moconews.net/article/419-fact-or-fiction-is-verizon-wirelesss-network-obsolete/

19 Roy Schestowitz (schestowitz) 's status on Friday, 09-Oct-09 11:16:55 UTC - Identi.ca { 10.09.09 at 7:16 am }
20 Here Come the Anti-FSF Shills, Gartner | Boycott Novell { 10.09.09 at 10:57 am }

[...] of “shills”, Roughly Drafted Magazine has this brilliant new exposé of the Gartner Group. It presents evidence (some of which extracted from Boycott Novell) and concludes as follows: Had [...]

21 sprockkets { 10.10.09 at 2:24 am }

“[WiMo 5] Magneto,” Gartner’s shills said, “will effectively fix the bugs and fill the holes in the current version of Windows for Smartphones [oh my sides hurt, tehee].”

HAHAHA!!! I remember supporting the Treo 700w, worst WM5 POS ever! It had “64MB” of RAM, only to actually have it taken by the OS (that makes no sense but whatever), which then gave like 32MB left, then only 22MB of that was ever free. You couldn’t even browse without using the task manager to close all the other apps that of course didn’t close when you hit the “X”.

People’s stuff wouldn’t sync right, no errors would happen, and my favorite which still plagues WM to this day, the phone stops ringing or vibrating when calls come in! We got two of our in house units to do it, so it wasn’t stupid customers. The only solution to it? As with any Windows product, a hard reset or full reinstall of the OS.

One customer put it best: “This phone reminds me of Windows95,” in how it corrupts easily due to a registry and needs daily soft resets to even work.

22 sprockkets { 10.10.09 at 2:33 am }

Oh yeah, one of those customers also said to me back then “I can’t wait for Apple to come out with a phone.” I agreed with him.

23 sprockkets { 10.10.09 at 3:48 am }

Wait, when I said “no errors happened” I should clarify, that in usual Microsoft fashion, when EAS didn’t work, the wheel would stop and no errors would be given, thus requiring me to have the customer check the log and resort to googling 0x errors, essentially the same error codes used in Windows 9x for dial up issues.

WM5: It just doesn’t work.

24 Berend Schotanus { 10.10.09 at 5:38 am }

When I read the announcements of the Gartner prediction I did have the feeling Gartner was doing an exercise in wishful thinking, so it was very pleasant to see those feelings confirmed in your article. I do however not think there is any form of direct payment or attributable conflict of interest between Gartner and Microsoft and I would be amazed if you can produce any proof of that. That’s too simplistic.

What I would expect (I don’t know any specifics) is that there is a much more indirect mingling of interests as a consequence of Gartner and Microsoft being part of the same business establishment. I think this is typical human behavior, it is about knowing each other, speaking to each other, visiting the same parties, using the same information sources. It is about maintaining a social network.
The participants in the network do protect each other, up to a certain level, they divide the interesting jobs and business opportunities amongst each other, they also compete with each other. In order to maintain social cohesion they do need to share a same basic view of the world.
Because of the social cohesion and the vast amount of information exchange a business establishment is the ideal environment for breeding memes: shared thoughts about the world that don’t necessarily need to be true.

So what you can reproach Gartner (if all this is true), is that they are basing their predictions upon party rumors instead of cool mathematical analysis. But you might expect there is a market for that kind of analysis because people do want to hear what fits in their social systems, even when it is not (completely) accurate.
Maybe it would be wise to revise our expectations of Gartner, stop seeing them as an accurate future prediction (if that would be possible in the first place), start seeing them as a fairly accurate thermometer of what the business establishment is thinking and expecting. Which would mean…

“The fact that Android, not WiMo, is being chatted up by Gartner is almost newsworthy.”

…which would mean the fact that Android, not WiMo, is being chatted up by Gartner really is newsworthy.

25 airmanchairman { 10.10.09 at 6:21 am }

@Alan: { 10.09.09 at 12:41 am }

“Apple will be forced to open up to other carriers and perhaps vary their models to maintain their momentum. Otherwise it will be like a repeat of the Mac vs PC in the 80’s when Mac created the market then quickly became a niche player all over again.”

Already happening, Alan, and not by compulsion, but by sheer momentum of forward vision…

1. Multiple carriers already announced in several countries. (Remember that the USA is not the world, just saying :-). More “mathematical” analysts predict that this move is going to dramatically drop-kick Apple Inc’s revenues and profits in an upward direction as early as next year…

2. Include the iPod Touch family, and the looming tablet (more than just a rumour now), and guess what? There just may be more than enough “model variation to maintain momentum”. Again, remember that this is not just a mobile phone market, but the fast-emerging MID platform anticipated for the last few years.

All beside the point: the crux of the article isn’t so much about Android’s potential (which has always been given a LONG-TERM thumbs up by more logical forecasters), but Gartner’s flawed short-term analysis, as clearly implied by the article’s title.

26 The Mad Hatter { 10.10.09 at 11:15 am }

Berend,

Gartner’s being paid by Microsoft has long been documented. See articles:
here – which quotes internal Microsoft documents from the Comes case
here – quote Microsoft internal email about Gartner
One of the quotes I loved from this was “Analysts sell out – that’s their business model”. Full copies of all of the Comes documents can be found at Groklaw and Boycott Novell. While the case was ongoing, the lawyers for the plaintiffs posted them to their website to pressure Microsoft, and part of the settlement was that the website be shut down. Unfortunately for Microsoft, many of us kept copies (heck, they were even available as a torrent on The Pirate Bay).

So yes, Daniel is 100% accurate with what he says about Gartner.

27 The Mad Hatter { 10.10.09 at 11:17 am }

Berend,

Gartner’s being paid by Microsoft has long been documented. See articles:
This one quotes internal Microsoft documents from the Comes case
This one quotes a Microsoft internal email about Gartner
One of the quotes I loved from this was “Analysts sell out – that’s their business model”. Full copies of all of the Comes documents can be found at Groklaw and Boycott Novell. While the case was ongoing, the lawyers for the plaintiffs posted them to their website to pressure Microsoft, and part of the settlement was that the website be shut down. Unfortunately for Microsoft, many of us kept copies (heck, they were even available as a torrent on The Pirate Bay).

So yes, Daniel is 100% accurate with what he says about Gartner.

Sorry for posting twice, first link was broken.

28 gus2000 { 10.10.09 at 11:30 pm }

Hey Daniel, this article got cited by Philip Elmer-DeWitt over at CNNMoney.com in his own article titled “The best analysis money can buy“:

“Drawing on historical records and making generous use of internal Microsoft documents made public during antitrust proceedings, Dilger attacks not only Dulaney’s numbers, but the credibility of the entire Gartner research group.The result is a 1,700-word screed that may be the most thorough take-down of a tech industry analyst — and his employer — since Eliot Spitzer went after Henry Blodget.”

Keep calling ‘em out, DED. Your work is appreciated.

29 sprockkets { 10.11.09 at 2:53 am }

“The battle over smart-phone software has spread beyond the operating systems,” Teng observed. “To win in today’s environment, a company needs not only an operating system but also device support, an application store, a broad portfolio of applications and support from the developer community. While Windows Mobile is losing some share to competitors in 2009, most of the alternatives cannot match Microsoft’s complete suite of offerings.” – isuppli.com

LOL, nobody can match Microsoft.

30 The Mad Hatter { 10.11.09 at 6:35 am }

Sound like ISuppli has been bought.

31 Jhanso » Blog Archive » Rooting For Microsoft { 10.13.09 at 1:02 pm }

[...] going and no one is disbanding any R&D groups just yet. But still it is still sad to hear that Windows Mobile is dead and the Android is the only real competitor to the [...]

32 The Mad Hatter { 10.14.09 at 9:10 pm }

And here’s someone who hasn’t sold out. Bet Microsoft buys into their company next week.

33 Berend Schotanus { 10.15.09 at 12:24 am }

Berend: “I do however not think there is any form of direct payment or attributable conflict of interest between Gartner and Microsoft…”

The Mad Hatter: “Gartner’s being paid by Microsoft has long been documented. See articles…”

You’ve got me on that one. Well noticed!

34 Microsoft’s backup problem blamed on Roz Ho — RoughlyDrafted Magazine { 10.16.09 at 12:03 am }

[...] Microsoft Develop Software for Zune HD? Microsoft uses adware model to pay for Zune HD apps Gartner declares Android a second place winner in 2012. Why? Microsoft sells restrictive new WiMo Marketplace via iPhone ads Lance Ulanoff and Robbie Bach [...]

35 Gartner’s presumptuous coronation of Android as the Windows of smartphones — RoughlyDrafted Magazine { 10.22.09 at 1:20 am }

[...] Gartner declares Android a second place winner in 2012. Why? Daniel Lyons Cries Wolf: The Real Bill Gates Behind the Fake Steve Jobs [...]

36 Canalys Q3 2009: iPhone, RIM taking over smartphone market — RoughlyDrafted Magazine { 11.03.09 at 3:10 pm }

[...] example, Gartner recently predicted in a widely publicized report that three years from now it expected to see Symbian slipping only a [...]

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