well, the only problem with pirating software is that it doesn’t really make you money, only indirectly because of market share. But once you’ve basically eliminated all chances of growth unless you defeat your last competitor, that’s going to be pretty hard to do. That last competitor, of course, is Apple, and it’s likely that most people using Mac wouldn’t bother downloading a Windows 7 at all, much less from places like the Pirate Bay. So basically, you haven’t got much growth at all, the only thing you could hope for is that you sell more retail / OEM copies, where the actual revenue is. But OEM revenues are shrinking, in part because everyone wants in on the netbook scene. And obviously there’s little market for the retail, because Microsoft figures that it’s not worth the cost to stock Windows on shelves unless it’s at least a hundred bucks a pop. So really, they thought at one time pirating wouldn’t affect them, but now it is, and like the RIAA, they’re trying to put DRM on their OS… except that it doesn’t require an activation server every-time you use it, thankfully.

Anyway, excellent articles Daniel. Haha, I have to laugh at Microsoft adopting a BSD-style kernel, they would rather keep eating their own dog-food than risk alienating virtually everyone that develops on their platform. Shows how much they care for Windows by throwing it away. I doubt Microsoft will be able to attempt something like that, unless they virtualize their Windows environment in a BSD kernel. But then, the gamers would complain that their favorite games aren’t playing anymore, businesses would complain that their legacy code isn’t working anymore, and consumers would have to buy new computers and printers because their drivers don’t work anymore. Welcome to Windows Vista launch round two! All because programs in Windows aren’t designed to be written purely in the user-space, some of them modify the kernel, like antivirus programs. So Microsoft set a bad example frankly, by saying that they wouldn’t care about security until it was too late to change the rules for writing legitimate programs.

but it made me think. i have wondered why there has been no (presumably) linux-based brand OS coming out of China or India targeting the second/third world markets. you would think some brilliant tech entrepreneurs there – and there are many – would have that dream, to one day rival Microsoft with their own company in that huge part of the global market, and elevate their nation’s technology industry to US level (which the Chinese sure as hell want/intend to). that would be a real long term threat – 10 years from now – to Windows.

the answer has to be pirate Windows, selling so cheap – like $25 – everyplace that there is no real market for an alternative. MS does not have to “dump” its software in the classic economic definition of how a monopoly makes it impossible for competition to get a foothold via setting its prices below cost. instead, it lets the pirates do their dirty work in the second/third world. while MS charges high prices to us first world suckers.

Let’s see how fast Windows 7 enters the full-scale pirate market.

Microsoft is sick. In effect they are where GM was 10 years ago, delivering products that they want to sell, but not products that consumers want to buy. They are pissing off their business partners (the computer OEMS) not one of which is loyal to Microsoft anymore (if they ever were). All of the bigger OEMS have enough engineering staff to build an OSX clone, the question is when one of them decides to do it, and offer it as an option on their full range.

A good part of the OS/2 3 code that Microsoft held onto was folded into the NT project. That was the good part of what became NT. I loved OS/2 and used it for a long time. Never liked the OS I used until OS X came along after that.

Typical Redmond perfidy.

The ‘killing’ as you say began with the wet-squib release of OS/2, and the coup de grace was delivered with Windows 3.1.1 for Workgroups, released immediately upon the expiration of IBM’s DOS code-sharing agreement w/ MS. This micro-point-release existed for only one reason: to break compatibility between PC-DOS & MS-DOS.

This move ultimately destroyed IBM’s desktop presence and, ultimately, led to Big Blue selling their PC IP to China.

No idea what the current round of revisionism will make of this, but these facts were widely understood by folks in the industry at the time, and the matter was commonly discussed in the various tech communities.