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John Dvorak Conceeds 2007 was a “Crappy Year” for Windows Enthusiasts

Daniel Eran Dilger
John Dvorak looked back at “another crappy career year for tech” and decided “Microsoft, Apple, and Google were to blame.” Being right on one count out of three isn’t a bad record for Dvorak, who typically gets everything wrong. Considering his self-flagellating lamentations of 2007 in PC Mag makes for a comical framework for looking back at a year that was particularly distressing to Windows Enthusiasts.

Dvorak’s Crappy Year.
Among the problems for his “crappy” 2007 was that some irrelevant dictionary added “w00t” as its word of the year, and that the scrappy Nintendo Wii humiliated the Microsoft Xbox 360 and Sony PlayStation 3, as I predicted would likely happen. Microsoft was well represented in his list of complaints, with the WGA fiasco and the Windows Vista Yawn.

PlayStation 3 vs. Xbox 360 vs. Nintendo Wii

Clearly, 2007 was not a good year for Microsoft, but Dvorak forgot to mention the worst of Microsoft’s problems:

The Zune: nobody cared about Microsoft’ embarrassing predicament at the hands of the iPod throughout 2007. After squirting out a tepid update that made it look more competitive with the low end of last year’s iPod line, Apple countered Microsoft’s best efforts with the release of a series of new models that trounced Zune 2.0, from the thin Nano with games and video output to the Touch featuring a full web browser and live podcast playback over the web. Microsoft was left only to brag that it was finally able to sell off most of its 2006 inventory — already reported as sold — at fire sale prices.

Why Microsoft’s Zune is Still Failing

Why Microsoft’s Zune is Still Failing

Windows Mobile: after struggling for a decade to get WinCE installed on something, Microsoft’s plans largely focused on mobile smartphones. Unfortunately, in 2007 Apple targeted the same market with a device even hotter than the iPod. Even worse, while far more sophisticated and attractive, the iPhone paired with a service plan costs hundreds less than an entry level Windows Mobile phone such as the basic Motorola Q. No wonder Apple outsold the entire range of Windows Mobile devices in its first quarter of sales, and ended up with a stronger showing in web stats than every other mobile browser combined.

Canalys, Symbian: Apple iPhone Already Leads Windows Mobile in US Market Share, Q3 2007

Proprietary Formats: one key element to Microsoft’s monopolistic control over the PC has been its use of proprietary formats to force users into buying everything from Microsoft. However, in 2007 a variety of events eroded into that stranglehold. Windows Media DRM was given the final boot in audio with MPEG AAC, and video with H.264. The ISO rejected Microsoft’s OOXML advanced to replace the existing Open Document standard for productivity applications. Even DirectX is facing increasing competition from Mac, Linux, Playstation, and Wii applications that all use OpenGL for their graphics.

Why Microsoft’s Copy-Killing Has Reached a Dead End

The Vista Yawn: Microsoft discovered, as I predicted, that 2007 wasn’t going to be like 1995. Retail Vista sales were disappointing to say the least, corporate interest was simply absent, and even hardware makers balked at loading up Vista Home Basic and forcing their users to upgrade to a more expensive version that actually works as expected.

Windows 95 and Vista: Why 2007 Won't Be Like 1995

Windows 95 and Vista: Why 2007 Won’t Be Like 1995

Vista uptake has been reported to be about half that of Windows XP, despite the fact that the PC market has grown significantly since 2001 and the reality that many Windows PC users regularly buy new computers just to run away from their old infected machines rather than paying to clean their old system out. Exacerbating the Vista problem is the pestilent detail that an increasing number of users are now buying Macs so they can run both yesterday’s Windows XP and upgrade to Mac OS X without the security problems, spyware, and adware push.

Back in April, Dvorak blamed the PC makers for Vista’s problems, complaining, “Microsoft, in the end, gets blamed for all the flaws while watching Dell, Hewlett-Packard, IBM and other ungrateful recipients of its goodwill to make fortunes off the Windows platform.” Of course, it’s Microsoft making the 91% profit margins on Windows while PC makers struggle for relevance with razor thin margins.

Also, will somebody please inform Dvorak that IBM sold its PC division some time ago? If IBM is a problem for Microsoft, it’s only because of its support for Linux in the server arena and Lotus Notes, not because IBM’s non-existent PCs aren’t running Vista well enough.

Dvorak recommended that Microsoft build its own PC and screw over its Windows licensee partners. Yes, that worked so well with the Zune! Perhaps if Microsoft shipped its own Windows PC, it wouldn’t break compatibility between its MS PC and third party boxes, but imagine the profits behind selling Office for MS PC-Windows separately from Office for regular Windows.

The downside to Dvorak’s hardware fantasy is that Microsoft has no expertise in making or marketing functional hardware. Look at the billion dollar losses behind the Xbox line, along with its 33% or greater record for hardware failure. And look at what Microsoft did to WebTV, MSNTV, and even its best ideas for music players, handheld gaming, SPOT watches and other hardware that all stunk to high heaven.

Ten Fake Apple Scandals: 7 - Apple's Hardware and Dvorak's Microsoft Branded PC

Ten Fake Apple Scandals: 7 – Apple’s Hardware and Dvorak’s Microsoft Branded PC

Dvorak’s Just Not Right Very Often.
I have yet to identify a prediction made by Dvorak that was prescient. How about a contest: submit a non-obvious, incisive, or at least partially correct article written by any Zoon Award winner and receive an award of some sort. “Robert X Cringely” is also fair game, as are any CNET/ZDNet bloggers and any tech journalists from Australia or the UK.

Dvorak is most famous for his “great Mac Intel prediction of 2003,” but that is disqualified based on the fact that he insisted Apple would migrate to Intel’s failed Itanium by the end of 2004. Instead, Apple leapt ahead of both the Pentium 4 and Itanium with the PowerPC G5.

Apple then only migrated to Intel after the chip maker returned to the drawing board and released the new Core family based on its Pentium 3, which shared none of the problems of the Pentium 4 or Itanium failures that Dvorak mistakenly insisted were worth something.

PE U: The Mac OS X Leopard Windows API Myth

PE U: The Mac OS X Leopard Windows API Myth

Here’s A Winnable Contest.
If scratching around in parched soil for signs of life sounds too boring, here’s another contest: identify the most delicious iPhone naysaying. While Dvorak’s “crappy” article complained that Apple and Google were to blame for his miserable 2007, the only thing bad he had to say about the companies were that they made him look silly:

“Apple. And I suppose I cannot lament the year without mentioning the hyper-success of Apple, which was based, for the most part, on new iPods and the iPhone. In a ”tail wagging the dog“ manner, these devices boosted the fortunes of the Macintosh computer. Of course, this was all helped along by the stumbling of Microsoft Vista.”

As for Google, it “seemed unable to slow its own growth no matter what it did.” In 2007, Google’s stock outperformed Microsoft by more than a factor of two, while Apple more than doubled in value. Microsoft was up 19.2%, Google 50.2%, but Apple was up 133.5%. No wonder Dvorak is kvetching.

Microsoft Apple Google 2007

Dvorak’s iPhone Naysaying.
Dvorak had lots of reasons to be upset about the iPhone’s success in particular. Here are some bits I referenced in previous articles:

In January on CNBC, Dvorak said the iPhone was “trending against what people are really liking in phones nowadays, which are those little keypads. The BlackJack, the Samsung, the BlackBerry obviously pushes this kind of thing. The Palm, all of these. I guess some of these stocks went down on the Apple announcement, thinking that Apple could do no wrong. But I think Apple can do wrong, and I think this is it.”

in March, Dvorak proclaimed that “there is no likelihood that Apple can be successful in a business this competitive.” The next month he said he was privy to insider information that iPhone only delivers “40 minutes of talk time” and that “the interface fouls up constantly.”

Why Dan Frommer and Scott Moritz Are Wrong on iPhone Sales

Also in March, Dvorak recommended “Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone.”

He explained that “I no longer believe in the concept [of a pocket-sized computer], after being slapped by reality once too often. When the iPhone came along, I was already sour on the entire idea.” Yes, reality is a cruel god to those who offend it with faithless disbelief.

Shortly before the iPhone’s release, Dvorak wrote, “Hitler got less coverage when he invaded Poland. Exactly what new meditation sequence Steve Jobs learned recently that could create such a flurry of fawning interest is beyond me.”

Of course, reality is beyond him because Dvorak has no technical competency in predicting what will work out and what won’t. Why does Dvorak command $40,000 speaking engagements despite not having written anything interesting, accurate, or thought provoking in the last decade? He’s a professional troll. Fortunately for him, nobody in the speaking engagement circuit or sound-bite seeking world of New Journalism cares about substance.

John Dvorak: How Wrong Can One Guy Be?

What You Expected, What You Got: Apple and Microsoft in Consumer Electronics
John Dvorak: How Wrong Can One Guy Be?

How about some tastier examples from other iPhone deniers? Post your best with links the culprits in comments below.

Happy 2008!
Special thanks to all the readers who have contributed toward RoughlyDrafted in 2007 with generous donations, corrections, and submissions!

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1 freediverx { 01.02.08 at 8:32 am }

“There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.”

–Steve Ballmer, April 2007


2 accumulator { 01.02.08 at 9:47 am }

As a long-time lurker, I couldn’t pass up this opportunity to add this article, from the blog of David Platt, author of the book “Why Software Sucks … and What You Can Do About It”. His website is http://www.suckbusters.com, and on 21 June he wrote the following post:

“Apple iPhone Debut to Flop, Product to Crash in Flames”

3 lmasanti { 01.02.08 at 10:21 am }

The site “www.suckbusters.com” (without colon) only shows a black page. Any wrong?

4 accumulator { 01.02.08 at 10:47 am }

Whoops. My bad. The comma got included as part of the URL. Try the following:


5 leifwright { 01.02.08 at 11:39 am }

I’m a newspaper editor who loves your site, Daniel.
FYI, the headline should be spelled “concedes”, not “conceeds”.
I mean that in the way of constructive help.
Haven’t read the article yet, but I am about to.

6 Jeremy_Bee { 01.02.08 at 12:01 pm }

Good article, but when you are talking about trying to find anything good or reasonable in the comments of idiots like Dvorak, it was unnecessarily shallow and bigoted of you to say include

“… any tech journalists from Australia or the UK.”

in the insult. Insults should really be considered out of place in a tech article, even one about such an outrageous personality like Dvorak.

Blanket insults to anyone living in “country X” or of “nationality Y” are are even more unprofessional, and should never be used in anything other than a personal emotive comment IMO.

7 limey { 01.02.08 at 12:23 pm }

Suckbusters, hmmm…

Is it significant that despite posting monthly or so prior, there have been no posts since.

Suckbusted then, eh?

What a piece of drivel. I cannot believe how many commentators critique without hands-on experience, but then this (suckbusters) is another example of the web leveling the publishing playing field.

Everyone’s an “expert” now.

Of course what’s really happened is that the really good writers stand head and shoulders above the rest, and they don’t necessarily write for the NYT, WSG or c-Net.

8 mrunderhill { 01.02.08 at 1:02 pm }

Ironically this guy was named and shamed for contributing to the “Osborne Effect Panic” in one of your articles, however in this article he selfishly proclaims that the iPhone is something he’d “want to buy”. He’s also from the UK although not sure if he’s a zoon award winner :-)


Keep up the good work and happy new year!!

9 nat { 01.02.08 at 1:33 pm }


I think Dan was just saying non-US shills can be included as well. I’m guessing there are a number of Ausie/UK writers he’s referring too. There may be a higher percentage there than in other countries, and/or he can’t identify some in other locations b/c they speak a different language.

10 keyboard55 { 01.02.08 at 1:37 pm }

One of my favorite iPhone naysayer pieces was on CNet:


11 PFFXV { 01.02.08 at 1:59 pm }

To freediverx
I believe Balmer was pretty much on target when you take his iPhone prediction in context:
“There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It’s a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I’d prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get.”

Apple will make a lot of money, and their overall market share when considering all cell phones will be rather small. I believe Apple will be very happy with that.

12 mrunderhill { 01.02.08 at 2:00 pm }

Actually in this article Andrew Orlowski say’s “People forget the iPod was a flop until 2003 – until iTunes on Windows”.

Well i bought an iPod in 2001 the moment they were announced in the UK and they were magic. I also paid a pretty price for it too, just like i’ve always had to do with all my Apple products in the past, although today’s prices are a snip compared to then.

So in my “fake Apple world” the iPod was a success even then. I can remember people drooling over it (windows users included) when i walked into the office that day.

As we know and knew then, a key element of Apple’s iPod/iTunes strategy was to convert more people (lets call them windows users for now) into the Mac platform and that’s clearly what’s happening today and would appear to be paying dividends.

For me these so called “expert’s” are overlooking the fact that Apple actually had something worth buying ‘before’ the iPod/iTunes came along. Apple just needed another marketing angle from which to work and the rest is history so to speak.

However, i’m a little worried by the “conversion rates” Apple are enjoying right now. I’m one of the old school “fanboys” who’d rather see the “masses” struggling along in their windows hell. As sad as it may seem i find the blue-screen of death rather amusing.

However, i’ve been noticing a few glitches of late with my Apple products. My new Macbook Pro “hangs” with Leopard, i’ve just had to exchange my son’s 3rd gen Nano twice because of software lock-ups which couldn’t be resolved and I’ve sent back 2 keyboards in the last two months for just refusing to work all of a sudden.

These are all new product purchases in the last few months and i’ve never had any problems in the past, or at least nothing i couldn’t resolve. So lets hope that Apple doesn’t compromise it’s quality in it’s quest for world domination. Just because something’s popular, doesn’t mean its better. As all Windows people know by now.

13 ericdano { 01.02.08 at 2:00 pm }

My predictions:

Apple grabs 20% of the PC market by next year (Dec 31). At this coming MacWorld, new Laptops will drop VGA in favor of DisplayPort and DVI. New displays from Apple will be DisplayPort and DVI.

As for Multitouch coming to Macs. I’m not sure that this is ready for primetime yet. I’d say that it would shake up the industry if Apple introduced new displays and laptops that used it, but I still think we are a year (at least) away from that. I’d like to be proven Dvorak about it though ;-)

14 John Muir { 01.02.08 at 2:08 pm }

On the UK point: Dan’s actually just about right. The tech media here are a complete laughing stock. I can’t say I know much about Australia’s scene though.

There is no asinine acceptance, no dismal depth, no fawning foolishness nor trashy trolling which *won’t* find itself in the BBC, Register or the Inquirer … yet alone the press. The snooty side of our society shines through when it comes to just how unprofessional the technical end of journalism can really be. It’s the red-haired stepchild of news. Sprinkle a liberal supply of Americanophobia onto Apple, middle aged angst about “these inscrutable iPod thingies the youth seem so fond of”, and an honest to god admiration for Bill Gates and you’ll just be starting to imagine what total guff winds up in the miserable corner set aside for technology here. If you think middle America can be a tough place to sell innovation, I welcome you to Britain and will ask you put the lights out when you leave!

It’s no surprise the iPhone is selling better in France and Germany, despite their noted distaste for American exports, not least in the media. Nor can I blame Jon Ive for finding that his talents took him eight hours west of us. What a country.

15 anne { 01.02.08 at 2:10 pm }

Enjoyed the article. Can Dvorak really get $40K per speaking engagement? That’s amazing when we are almost in a depression.

By the way, Daniel, you need to activate the Spell Checker. Your headline says Dvorak “Conceeds” 2007 was “crappy”. I think you mean, “concedes”. I just don’t want JD to come after you on a typo.

16 lmasanti { 01.02.08 at 2:33 pm }

“Can Dvorak really get $40K per speaking engagement? That’s amazing when we are almost in a depression.”

That news “depress” me!

17 gus2000 { 01.02.08 at 2:37 pm }

“…[Apple] shareholders have benefited sending shares from $7 in 2003 to the $100 they sit at today. The introduction of the iPhone will be the first miscue for the company and send its shares, priced for perfection tumbling.”


AAPL stock has more than doubled in the 6 months since this prediction. Hope this guy didn’t go short!

18 gus2000 { 01.02.08 at 2:39 pm }

BTW Daniel, IBM still sells Intel-based servers (X Series) but their primary OS is “Windows Server 2003”. So I’d say they’re a few years away from catching up to Vista.

19 PFFXV { 01.02.08 at 2:54 pm }

Anne, where do you live? North America, Europe and Asia are not in a depression. Come to think of it, South America and some parts of Africa are doing well.

20 gus2000 { 01.02.08 at 3:08 pm }

The Guardian thought the iPhone would flop…JUST LIKE THE MAC?!??


21 mikeg { 01.02.08 at 3:34 pm }

Reference Apple News:

Less than a year after its introduction, it’s clear “the iPhone has had a profound impact on the mobile phone business and likely will keep on influencing it for years to come,” Troy Wolverton (mercurynews.com) reports. “With its large, full-screen display, its notable lack of a keypad and its simple black-on-silver color scheme, the iPhone instantly became an icon—and a model for the rest of the industry.”

Just out of curiosity, wasn’t Troy Wolverton one of the (many) badmouthers/naysayers about Apple products including the iPhone.

It is nice to see something positive coming out of those who are so quick to (inaccurately) badmouth good products. I am sure there is a hidden angle.

Dvorak is just plain cranky, so I wouldn’t expect a shift in attitude. It would ruin a good source of drivel.

22 danieleran { 01.02.08 at 3:36 pm }

Yes I managed to spell “concedes” wrong in the title (and made several other typos in the article, LOLBBQ). Thanks for all the corrections, but unfortunately if I fix the article heading it will bork the URL, and there isn’t any easy way to create a referrer to bounce people from the old one to the new story, so I’d rather look a bit stupid than leave readers stuck on a 404 page, even if I am poisoning Google with a misspelled word.

On the other hand, I’ll probably have top search rank for “condeeds.”

23 AlanAudio { 01.02.08 at 4:48 pm }

Gus2000 got here first to draw attention to Jack Schofield from the Guardian and one of his many absurd anti-Apple rants.

The next best one I can offer comes from Bill Thompson, writing for the BBC. While not a standing joke like Jack, he does seem to oscillate between liking and hating Apple.

Talking before the iPhone was released, he said that “I suspect that Apple’s iPhone, coming to market at the end of the month, will end up offering a fascinating insight into the conflicts created when the coolest looking technology turns out to be far less usable than it was supposed to be.”


He made the common mistake of assuming that what others had failed to do would be impossible for Apple to do.

24 addicted44 { 01.02.08 at 4:54 pm }

“On the other hand, I’ll probably have top search rank for “condeeds.””

You already do!

However, reading through the cNet Newton v Samsung knockout, I was really astonished by how good the Newton sounded (well less the article than the comments). I hope Apple will include some of those features, including the “Assist” feature, more gestures, and copy/cut/paste etc…

25 gus2000 { 01.02.08 at 5:15 pm }

“I think [iPhone is] going to be a flop. It’s beautiful, no doubt, but people need the tactile feedback of keys.” – Michael Robertson, founder of MP3.com, Linspire, and SIPphone

“Apple, I love your products. I just hope you can overcome some of the flaws I list and make [iPhone] just as successful as the iPod and your computers. I’m really starting to lean towards Microsoft” – blogger and shill Jesse Stay of jessestay.com

“The iPhone will not substantially alter the fundamental structure and challenges of the mobile industry.” – Charles Golvin, an analyst at Forrester Research Inc.

“Historically, working with partners hasn’t been a strong point for Apple, so maybe it will find a way to work around those relationships…it’s just another iPod trying to be a phone.” – Robbie Bach, president of Microsoft’s entertainment and devices division

“[iPhone] runs the Mac OS. This is a major constraint, since few third-party application vendors run on the Mac.” – Jack Gold, columnist at pcadvisor.co.uk

“Apple will sell a few to its fans, but the iPhone won’t make a long-term mark on the industry.” – Matthew Lynn, Bloomberg News columnist

“As customers start to realise that the competition offers better functionality at a lower price, by negotiating a better subsidy, sales will stagnate. After a year a new version will be launched, but it will lack the innovation of the first and quickly vanish. The only question remaining is if, when the iPod phone fails, will it take the iPod with it.” – Bill Ray, columnist for theregister.co.uk

“There is no capacity for outputting video, via Apple dock, cable or third-party accessory. Thank God the iPhone has a spacious screen, cuz that’s all your ever gonna watch it’s videos on, ever.” – Gizmodo

“Prediction No. 1: The iPhone will be a major disappointment.” Al Ries of adage.com

“I can tell you with near-certainty one thing: the product was almost certainly rushed to market before Apple’s engineers would have liked. Which means that when the iPhone comes, Digg will likely be full of horror stories from the poor saps who camped out at their local AT&T store, only to find their purchase was buggier than a camp cabin.” – Seth Porges, columnist at crunchgear.com

“Bookmark this page and come back in December 2008 if Apple sells anywhere near the 10M phones they’re targeting… I am not impressed by their phone, and I’m surprised so many otherwise intelligent people think this is a watershed for the industry.” – blog of Richard Sprague, Senior Director of Marketing at Microsoft Research

“Apple won’t succeed with the iPhone. They’ve launched an innovation that the existing players in the industry are heavily motivated to beat: It’s not [truly] disruptive. History speaks pretty loudly on that, that the probability of success is going to be limited.” – Clayton Christensen, author of “The Innovator’s Dilemma” and professor at the Harvard Business School

“Anyway, that’s my prediction and I felt like getting it in early – I don’t want to be seen jumping on bandwagons after everyone else suddenly realises that the iPhone is a flop.” – Geoff Long, columnist for commsday.com

“Much like the Mac Cube, the iPhone is beautiful in design and highly overpriced…and will fail. It may not be the last of the phones coming out from Apple, but it will be a high visibility failure for a first product of its line.” – blogger Steve Kong of ultramookie.com

“Get your broker on the phone if you own Apple stock; by mid July, you’re going to want to be out.” – Christopher Mims, Special Projects Editor at Scientific American, 4 June 2007

“Boy was I ever wrong.” – Christopher Mims, 23 July 2007

26 GQB { 01.02.08 at 5:42 pm }

May I assume that this YouTube clip is well known (Dvorak’s gloating about MacBaiting to raise his hits.)


27 John Muir { 01.02.08 at 6:10 pm }

gus2000 wins the prize. A fine list. And sadly, I hear many of its (idiotically wrong) sentiments (online and in spoken conversation) quite frequently when the iPhone is discussed. One friend of mine is sure it’s a global failure, so much so the poor sap imported a Zune. Mind, he is quite incurable!

28 johnnyapple { 01.02.08 at 6:30 pm }

“With only a brief preview of its new iPhone, Apple has yanked the rug from under the rest of the industry. The talking heads desperately need to something to say. Here’s what they’ll all be saying, and why they’ll be wrong.” – Daniel Eran Dilger, January 11, 2007

29 gus2000 { 01.02.08 at 7:24 pm }

The funniest one to me is by Richard Sprague over at MS, who is still in total denial as of September 2007:

“I stand by the bet I made in January that Apple’s iPhone won’t sell anywhere near the 10M units they’re targeting for their first year. You don’t cut the price of something that’s selling well. One of my friends at T-Mobile, who knows the business extremely well, thinks they’ll have a tough time selling 3M in the first year.”


He previously alluded to December 2008 as the end of the “first year”, so I assume he’s using a shorthand term rather than trying to weasel out of what he meant.

30 johnnyapple { 01.02.08 at 7:34 pm }

3M equals 3,000, but um, oh well. It’s close enough for a Microsoft employee. Assuming he meant 3MM, we’ll find out in a few weeks that Apple sold more than that many in its first six months. They managed that despite being available in three mid-size Euro markets for less than half of the quarter.

31 OlsonBW { 01.02.08 at 7:35 pm }

I call these people “brown neckers”. You’ve heard of “brown nosers”. Well these people are just more “dedicated”.

After not seeing the light of day for however long they have their heads up Bill Gates rear end and smelling his poo. You really can’t expect them to know about anything he doesn’t tell them (I’m not sure how he communicates with them when their head is up his rear end) and after awhile his poo must not smell anymore.

For the rest of us his poo isn’t any kind of fertilizer but toxic waste that destroys everything else.

32 johnnyapple { 01.02.08 at 7:50 pm }

“mid-size” Sorry friends from Europe. That was a dumb U.S. native talking. The UK, Germany and France are clearly not “mid-size” markets.

33 nextcube { 01.03.08 at 12:16 am }

I give credit,though, to Mr. Mims of SciAm, keeping the Science in it and admitting he was wrong!

34 anne { 01.03.08 at 1:21 am }

to PFFFV who asked:

“Anne, where do you live? North America, Europe and Asia are not in a depression. Come to think of it, South America and some parts of Africa are doing well.”

PFFFV – I just go by what I hear on the network TV news. The mortgage market is melting, millions have been thrown out of their homes, the Katrina victims are still without roofs over their heads, gas prices are at an all time high, the only jobs are at McDonalds, the national debt is at all time high, all manufacturing jobs have moved to China, most imported toys are poisonous and they are being eaten in mass quantities by kids because the starvation level is increasing, the middle class is shrinking, the Christmas shopping season was way low for retailers, all the banks are about to go under. Other than this list, it’s probably not a recession in North America. But I’m afraid to get out of bed. Guess I’ll go watch Lou Dobbs.

35 freediverx { 01.03.08 at 1:25 am }

You wrote: “I believe Balmer was pretty much on target when you take his iPhone prediction in context:
‘There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance… They may make a lot of money… I’d prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get.’ Apple will make a lot of money, [but] their overall market share when considering all cell phones will be rather small.”

Ahem… Just 6 months after MonkeyBoy’s prediction, Apple had already sold 1.2 million iPhones – 27% of the US smartphone market – outselling ALL Windows Mobile phones COMBINED in North America.

36 PFFXV { 01.03.08 at 9:53 am }

To freediverx,
Take a look at the whole interview. Ballmer was speaking of the total market, not just the smartphones. He was on target with his prediction, but his overall point was off. The iPhone may be wildly profitable, but most people will just stick with their cheap cell phones.

37 PFFXV { 01.03.08 at 10:06 am }

To anne,
I’m sorry you are so depressed about the state of the USA. There’s too much to worry about, but we can be thankful that at least for now, we are not in a recession — much less a depression.

Here are some things to be thankful for in the USA:
– Most of us are relatively safe, and if we care enough, we can work to help those who aren’t.
– There is more than enough food — safe food. Most of us waste more food than some people around the world eat.
– We elect our politicians, and there are no mobs in the streets to shooting people because of election results.
– We’re free to worship — or not worship.
– All of us responding to this article have access to a computer and the internet.

I’m sure you can add to the list.

Here are a few things you can do that may help you feel better:
– Help someone who is truly in need.
– Campaign for your favorite candidate (if you don’t have one, work for the least irritating)
– Read a good book — one with a happy ending.
– Stop watching the network news and read a good newspaper. The New York Times is free online. The news isn’t any better, but it’s less dramatized.

38 sebastianlewis { 01.03.08 at 10:31 am }

Oh come one Daniel, you even managed to misspell your typo @#22.

On another note, I did Google conceeds and this article was at the top of the results list, but not condeeds.


39 sebastianlewis { 01.03.08 at 10:32 am }

Bleh! This is why I hate playing grammar/spelling cop, those that do always make a silly mistake like “one” instead of “on” or something like that.


40 anne { 01.03.08 at 10:56 am }


I was actually kidding about the recession. I just get tired of all the incredibly negative reporting. I like your last post. It makes me think of how much we have to be thankful for. Thanks.

41 zaxzan { 01.03.08 at 10:41 pm }

Hello PFFXV.

“There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It’s a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I’d prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get.”

This was typical Balmer talk –

The key word here is “prefer” as Microsoft only have about 5% of the entire mobile market,(possibly going backwards) the rest is in essence owned by Symbian, with linux, a long way back, running second.

Apple has yet again been a catalyst, it is reshaping a market by delivering innovative, perceptive and ergonomic design.

Balmer was either wrong or lying that Apple would not realize a significant share of the market, the mobile phone market is already moving to encompass “smart” phones as the norm, obviously, todays iPhone will eventually become the cheap cell phone most people will just stick with and thus become redundant as Apple and hopefully others introduce newer “smarter” personal phone/ gadgets.

“It’s all about the software” – just keep repeating that precept.

42 PFFXV { 01.05.08 at 7:32 pm }

You may be right about the phone market, but I doubt that a significant percentage of the world will buy $400 phones. Apple may develop a cheaper version, but it’s hard to beat free.

Either way, I’m waiting for Apple to add three functions before I make the latest iPlunge: GPS (or some equivalent), voice dialing (can’t drive without it) and the ability to use it as a modem (which will probably take a hack). Until then, I’ll live with my free phone.

43 Les { 01.07.08 at 12:24 pm }

“We’re free to worship — or not worship”

Yeah, as long as you don’t run for any public office (fot the “not worship” part)…

“Read a good book — one with a happy ending.”

Like life, good books don’t have a happy ending…

44 PFFXV { 01.07.08 at 2:23 pm }

The only reason the freedom “not to worship” does not hold true for politicians is that they are mostly cowards who can’t stand up for their convictions.

I hope your comment that “Like life, good books don’t have happy endings,” was hyperbolic. I’ve seen many lives end happily as well as some books. But your basic point is well taken that good books don’t necessarily have happy endings.

45 Les { 01.08.08 at 10:41 am }

“I hope your comment that “Like life, good books don’t have happy endings,” was hyperbolic.”

It was, in a way. What I mean is that in the end we all die. That might not necessarily be a problem for the person involved but for her/his relatives, friends, etc. it’s rarely a happy moment. A book that has a “happy ending” simply ended prematurely… ;)

But seriously, in most cases I prefer books with endings that aren’t the classic “and they lived happily ever after”. For some reason a happy ending doesn’t stick that well.

46 PFFXV { 01.08.08 at 3:01 pm }

How did we get so far off topic! This is truly mimicking the real world.

Have a great life, and may you die happy while leaving sad but grateful friends and family to mourn for you.

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